Andy

[Andy @sythus5]

https://t.co/1F8S7rQl8M

[Andy @sythus5]

@puzzlecensored @PeterSchiff Why would anyone listen to price forecasts/investment advice from someone (Peter) who literally sells precious metals for a living?

[Andy @sythus5]

@cig_onchain "It doesn't look natural, does it?"

[Andy @sythus5]

@krugman87 Either shorter (bottoming now/ July) or into 2027 seems right

[Andy @sythus5]

Did Saylor misrepresent his products? Yeah, easy to argue that. Should anyone 'park' 30-40% of their entire net worth into any single thing? Hell no.

Also wtf is this guy saying...let's assume 40% of net worth went into STRC at $100 for a worst case scenario. STRC is at ~$75 currently, so he's lost 25% of 40% (=10%) and complaining about losing his life savings? Get the fuck out of here.

[Andy @sythus5]

@MurseDarius @foundmyfitness I was wondering about this too. I imagine the extra fiber *justifies* it, but would argue it might be better to spread the berry sugar consumption out over the day, rather than a single large dose.

[Andy @sythus5]

@lowstrife "I give you the upside, you have no downside" has got to be one of the most blatantly dangerous and crazy things he's said.

[Andy @sythus5]

If it were 100% certain that this would happen, then BTC, MSTR and all the preferreds would be trading much, much lower right now. That doesn't mean I think people should buy any of these instruments - they appear stressed and that requires a very different risk calculation than many alternative investment options.

[Andy @sythus5]

@DanielR53895067 @PeterSchiff I don't have any MSTR nor any of its preferreds and I don't recommend buying any of them. If people want Bitcoin exposure then they should buy that, or ETFs if preferred.

[Andy @sythus5]

Daniel, you are perpetuating more Strategy falsehoods, of which there are so many on X. Preferred holders HAVE NO secured claim on Strategy's bitcoin. They have a 'liquidation preference', which is a priority over common stock in a wind-up. They rank behind all debt. You're right about the accrual of unpaid dividends but that's still a junior, unsecured equity priority, not a claim on the BTC itself.

[Andy @sythus5]

@ArdiNSC Lol syko is literally one of the worst on here. Welcome to the club

[Andy @sythus5]

Hi James, I think we should be specific on what you mean exactly by thesis.

There are at least a couple different ones: 1) BTC price action/CAGR, and 2) BTC adoption/global monetary use.

I've been in Bitcoin since 2012. I think Strategy/Saylor and Trump represent a genuine threat to both. This isn't just sentiment - there are very real threats to the market price and to adoption of the tech that we need to take into consideration. https://t.co/qIHlMeYYLo

I'll add that I think for a meaningful bottom we need clarity on Strategy's fundamentals.

[Andy @sythus5]

https://t.co/1F8S7rQl8M

[Andy @sythus5]

😅

I'll add my 2 cents. I've been in BTC since 2012. There have always been narratives to support claims that BTC is going to zero, and they tend to sound most logical near bear market bottoms. From my view, sentiment and I'll say 'expectations' are pretty damn close to as bad as possible.

Even I am having a hard time justifying a medium term (say 1-3 years) bull case for BTC right now. The threat of a MSTR unwind is genuinely real and could set us up for major breakdowns and multi-year sideways price action at levels that are going to shake the conviction of the most ardent bulls. The flip side of that is, I've felt this before and knew better than to sell at these levels unless you legitimately need to free up cash for something. That usually means you are overexposed or leveraged - not something you should take lightly in a spot like this.

Long story short: I think for a meaningful bottom we need clarity on Strategy's fundamentals. Sure we may get some bounces off of technical levels, but there are good reasons to recognize the uncertainty and perhaps hold off on going hard with buying any upcoming dips/DCAs.

[Andy @sythus5]

58k gang assemble?

[Andy @sythus5]

@WazzCrypto Funny to say, but realistically we get a bounce here > 100 at least

[Andy @sythus5]

@BigpictureBTC Happy to see these things being exposed, thank you. This paired with the ridiculous AI-slop and marketing for STRC really looks terrible.

[Andy @sythus5]

@BigpictureBTC The risks are real, but many people are getting the path completely wrong: https://t.co/E3S4D8XcAh

[Andy @sythus5]

I'm seeing a lot of misinformed takes on Strategy's $MSTR preferred obligations — and what actually happens if a dividend gets missed. Spoiler: the preferreds aren't debt, and skipping one isn't a default.
Quick breakdown 🧵

[Andy @sythus5]

@PeterSchiff https://t.co/E3S4D8XcAh

[Andy @sythus5]

I'm seeing a lot of misinformed takes on Strategy's $MSTR preferred obligations — and what actually happens if a dividend gets missed. Spoiler: the preferreds aren't debt, and skipping one isn't a default.
Quick breakdown 🧵

[Andy @sythus5]

I agree with a lot of that, but will point out a couple areas of clarification. I think Saylor has been net positive for BTC price appreciation, whereas for adoption and investor overhang fears I think its more nuanced. Your point regarding perpetuals is a big risk and is probably holding back some deep liquidity channels (I wrote about this here: https://t.co/qIHlMeYYLo)

Tom recently proposed the idea of a 9.5% div-paying perpetual preferred (BMNP).

[Andy @sythus5]

https://t.co/1F8S7rQl8M

[Andy @sythus5]

5/
The bottom line?

Strategy has NO legal obligation to redeem the preferreds, and NO obligation to pay any preferred dividend on a given date. Skipping isn't a default. The consequence is reputational & market access, not the law. Know what you own and know what you are critiquing.

[Andy @sythus5]

I'm seeing a lot of misinformed takes on Strategy's $MSTR preferred obligations — and what actually happens if a dividend gets missed. Spoiler: the preferreds aren't debt, and skipping one isn't a default.
Quick breakdown 🧵

[Andy @sythus5]

4/
What if they skip a dividend? It is NOT a default. There is no acceleration and no bankruptcy trigger. What actually happens:

Dividends accrue (and STRC compounds monthly). STRD is an exception - it just vanishes.

Dividend stopper: can't pay/buy back common while in arrears.

Prolonged arrears → preferred may get board-election rights.

Liquidation: preferred ranks ahead of common.