tacoborito

₿itcoin enthusiast and free-thinker.
Strong interest in chart analysis, statistics, and market behavior.
Focused on long-term perspectives.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Hey Matthias, I’m with you on the retracement logic — especially the 0.236–0.382 zone and the 0.618–0.786 area as the key decision zone. One thing I’d adjust is the 2021 timeline: there was no ~$97k intermediate high. October topped around $67k, followed by the ~$69k ATH in November, while the ~$57.5k low came later. So the structural comparison is interesting, but I think the 2021 sequence needs a small correction.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@sagjetztendlich 6/6 + Österreicher.
Ich bin raus. Hopfen und Malz verloren. Game Over.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame @BCBacker Yes, understood. The key point is that this is a timing hypothesis, not a fixed timeline. If the current structures continue to confirm the accelerated rotation regime, year-end simply becomes a plausible window rather than a target. The market will tell us.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Good post. I want to add one question to this: if the equity top occurs, say, in September, would your model imply that BTC could top roughly 20–30 days later during the corresponding B-wave? And if the equity top is delayed into October, would you expect the BTC top to shift accordingly?

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame Endgame!

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

I've been following this format for quite a long time now, and I genuinely appreciate what Oliver Michel and Johanna Krämer have built. In my view, it's one of the few German-language formats that consistently looks beyond price charts and includes the broader macro picture.

I can also understand why some people find it too complex or prefer the simplicity of a fixed four-year cycle narrative. It's often more comfortable to hear what confirms your existing view. But markets are rarely that simple, which is exactly why I value discussions like these.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Well said. I completely agree that believing in the long-term technology doesn't automatically mean ignoring market structure and risk management. Those are two separate discussions. The biggest mistake, in my view, is turning "never sell" into a universal rule. Every market cycle is different, and adapting to changing liquidity and macro conditions is just as important as believing in the long-term thesis.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame I really appreciate your summaries of US economic data—please keep them up. It really shows that it often makes sense to look beyond the raw data being posted 😊

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame Great summary sir! Thank you 👍🏻

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@QuintenFrancois Exactly! And there’s no one here addressing or processing the incident. A major loss of trust, imo.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame When it bursts (and it will), it’s going to be pretty painful for a lot of people...

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame Good perspective. I still think the divergence between equities and crypto is the most important piece of the puzzle right now. Whether it closes through a crypto catch-up move or through weakness in traditional markets remains the key question for me.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Interesting perspective. One thing I keep wondering about is whether we could still see a final rotation into risk assets before equities fully roll over. Crypto has clearly underperformed since October 2025, and sentiment remains extremely weak. If equities are indeed in their final phase, a brief catch-up move in BTC and ETH wouldn't surprise me before they eventually follow the broader market lower

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Very thoughtful post. What resonates with me most is the idea that both sides currently have strong arguments and both narratives feel completely logical. That is exactly what makes this phase so difficult to navigate. I still have questions around crypto's relative weakness versus equities, but I fully agree that consensus itself can become a trap — whether bullish or bearish.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Very interesting perspective. One thought I keep coming back to is whether the divergence could be telling us more than just "underpositioning". Since the flash crash last October, it feels like something changed structurally. Equities have gone on to make new highs, yet crypto still struggles to attract sustained flows, retail participation remains muted and sentiment never really recovered. It makes me wonder whether some degree of confidence was lost and whether that matters once traditional markets eventually begin to roll over.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@BullTheoryio That's right, sir! And one can hardly imagine what will happen to Bitcoin and crypto when the rally of the major assets comes to an end.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

Exceptionally strong post. The point about exponential vs. linear market behaviour is something many still underestimate. What also stands out to me this cycle is the absence of true retail mania so far — the market currently feels far more institutionally driven than previous cycles. That is exactly why I can still see the possibility of one final aggressive upside push before the larger unwind eventually begins.

[tacoborito @tacoborito3]

@TheBigCycleGame You're very welcome, sir.