I'm a big believer of less is more in trading
Most people could remove 99% of their indicators and actually do better
All you need is:
-Price action
-Volume
-Moving averages
Everything else is noise, and is likely harming you more than doing good.
Keep it simple.
Les hommes éprouvent du plaisir à voir un tricheur puni. Pas les femmes. Et ça explique pourquoi notre justice est en crise aujourd'hui.
Pour le comprendre, il faut lire l'étude de Singer et al., publiée dans Nature (Numéro 439, p. 466-469, 2006).
Cette étude a observé 32 volontaires (16 hommes et 16 femmes) pendant qu'ils regardaient des acteurs "justes" ou "injustes" (ayant triché) recevoir de légers chocs électriques.
Le résultat ?
Quand un joueur "juste" souffre, hommes et femmes activent les mêmes aires de la douleur empathique (fronto-insulaire et cortex cingulaire antérieur).
Jusqu'ici, rien d'anormal...
En revanche, lorsque c'est un joueur « injuste » qui souffre, les hommes ne montrent aucune empathie (pas d'activation des aires de la douleur), mais une bouffée d'activité dans le noyau accumbens, le centre de la récompense, le même qui s'allume pour la nourriture, le sexe ou la drogue.
Les femmes, elles, continuaient à montrer de l'empathie, même envers le tricheur qui souffrait et était sanctionné. La partie du cerveau dédiée au plaisir de la récompense ne montrait aucune activité.
En bref, le plaisir neurologique d'infliger une punition et l'intensité de ce désir sont constitutifs du "comportement juste". A l'inverse, leur absence explique l'impossibilité, quasiment biologique, de rendre la justice.
Voilà pourquoi la justice est dysfonctionnelle aujourd'hui.
Frankly speaking, it gives me a strange sense of déjà vu to see retail investors—who are, at best, secondary market participants free from liquidity constraints—boldly declare that "memory is no longer a cyclical industry" or pinpoint a specific moment of collapse while obsessing over long-term predictions on highly liquid mega-caps like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Make no mistake. We are not economists, policymakers, or corporate executives. What matters to investors is gauging the long-term trend or short-term trajectory of prices, not perfectly prophesying the real economy of the distant future.
Asset prices are strictly determined by the perceptions and actions of market participants. The real economy is only relevant because the market forms its forward expectations based on it; predicting the real economy itself is not the essence of investing.
That is the domain of sell-side analysts when they need to curve-fit their valuation models to justify their target prices.
Our role is to identify the weak links and catalysts that may emerge. As long as the market maintains the conviction that "memory is not cyclical," we ride that trend.
And when a definitive catalyst emerges that shatters that expectation, triggering a forced recalibration of collective sentiment, we must agilely pivot to the counter-trend.
In other words, an investor should not act as a prophet predicting the economy, but rather function as a state machine, objectively mapping the current market regime and executing state transitions based on varying inputs.
A wise investor does not try to silence those who warn of downside risks in the memory industry. Instead, they simply incorporate those risks into their monitoring list and observe quietly.
The "existence" of a risk is fundamentally different from its "Realization," and it is solely our job to assess the constraints and timing of its realization.
Above all, be wary of the absolute certainty of those who dictate the distant future based on current stock prices.
Those trapped in desk-bound financial logic are often shockingly ignorant of how the real economy actually operates.