Caveat emptor, often fighting lost causes. Like drunks use of lamp post, most use me for support, not illumination. Not financial advice just to be clear... 🕊️
US May retail sales expected to have risen 0.5% m/m or 6.3% y/y (17/6). This nominal rate incl. 5.2% "goods" inflation, thus real 🇺🇸 activity 1.1% y/y. Better than Mar & Apr but weak annual comp so def subpar. Messy (in Heaven)🎶
https://t.co/S7m7Q3FVxn
US chemical prices surge. Back in 2021 its was demand pull but now its cost push. Galvanise $DOW
(🎶Push the button - The Chem Bros.)
https://t.co/rq4ZIXdY5q
US 🏭 intermediate material costs rose 2.7% m/m (9.2% y/y). This is > rate of knots than when Russia invaded Ukraine, even though now 🇺🇸 ISM prices paid "sentiment" is lower. So managers feel costs are less acute whereas in reality they're pressuring margins more. Desensitised
US car brands are structurally more expensive and are inflating faster than "foreign" brands. Hence foreign automakers shift more 🚗. Capitalism in motion despite 🇺🇸 protectionism 👇
https://t.co/7W3wTuI6pq
US new 🚗 sales rose in May by 1.5% y/y, 1st annual increase since Sep'25. Snag is 🇺🇸 domiciled automakers failed to enjoy uplift as $GM $F & $TSLA saw demand drop -9% (bigger/dearer offering). Asian & $STLA (Chrysler) competitors outperform. #MAGA base (loyal to their wallet)
@SamanthaLaDuc Little bit confused why u r comparing their commodity PPI with your CPI. Apples & アップルパイ.
🇺🇸 commodity PPI was 9.8% y/y in April. Feel free to explain i feel a little bit stupid ! 🙏
I have a premise on this that I have been talking about on the podcast lately.
- Holidays = Impact Jan data
- Snow Storm = March data
- Homes take longer to close, and some spill over impact there
Question now, can it hold with higher rates 🫡
JM Smucker raising food prices by double-digit for 9mths now over and above 🇺🇸 CPI benchmark as volumes decline. Some like to allude GLP-1 is behind Americans' repressed appetite yet mysteriously vol declines more in divisions where inflation is higher. Elasticity (sweatpants)
US existing #housing transactions rise ahead of expectations. Question shouldnt be why are they rising but why werent they rising earlier in the year when mortgage rates (30yr FRMs) were cheaper. Restrictor
@business Where be the 200 ✈️orders Trump brought from Chai-na?
PS. 🇪🇺Airbus received 357 net orders compared to 🇺🇸Boeing 22. Of course we know $AIR delivered 81 jets (59% y/y) relative to $BA's 60 planes (33%). Who be winning ?
@piloly How excited are you gonna get when you see Tesla outgrew BYD wrt 🇪🇺 sales in May ? Of course not sure it will offset 🇺🇸 demand weakness but hey ... win is a win.
@GuyDealership If your revenue figures are indeed true its damning abt level of inflation in the US tank (4give pun) cos 🇺🇸 automakers' global volume growth are pretty 💩(ex niche Tesla). Stewards (race)
@toiletkingcap Less is definitely more when it comes to philosophy. Seems to me like Americans are do-ers rather than thinkers which has worked-out well so far. Paradox (Socratic)
US Employment Situation
* Headline #NFP surprise due +60k (local) gvt jobs
* BLS private jobs = ADP survey
* Breadth worse vs April (Retail)
* 🇺🇸 in full employment since Covid recovery
* Problem is American's real earnings and gap against real consumer spend 2Q cons est
HAGW !