Gold, I mean BTC, is once again proving itself to be a volatile bubble. Only Reichsmarks, I mean USDs, represent the full faith & credit of a government that just lost a war & owes 2-4x GDP in hard currency-denominated war reparations, I mean Social Security & Medicare/Medicaid.
Gold is re-becoming an oil currency. Note Swiss gold exports to Gulf Countries (red.)
Two critical pieces of context:
1. Switzerland has both CNY swaps with China & offshore CNY (CNH) clearing arrangements.
2. Physical oil markets are 12-15x bigger than physical gold markets.
This is the main reason gold is rallying right now--interest expense is spiraling out of control, and if interest rates tick up 1 or 2% higher, we will be in fiscal checkmate. The only path forward will be debt monetization.
A global asset paradigm shift is in the making. Away from equities, bonds, USD etc, towards tangible assets.
This ratio has yet to break out on daily chart, but here on a monthly line chart, it has broken out & is backtesting.
The tide is surely turning. #commodities#strategy
Out now - how @LukeGromen is thinking about the current stress in the Treasury market:
- Unless oil and/or the dollar goes down a lot, "the beatings will continue" in the bond market
- The pain in bonds will continue & continue until there is a 2019-style spike except instead of in repo it's in the long-end of Western sovereign bond markets
- This market meltdown will require - Federal Reserve intervention (rate cuts? QE? Repo?) in order to prevent market malfunction
- America's Debt-to-GDP ratio is too high to stomach 5.5% rates... government needs to inflate the debt away by keeping rates below inflation, if the Fed sticks to this playbook it will have implications for hard assets such as gold & Bitcoin
This is an early release on @X - will go live on regular channels later Thursday (tomorrow) as usual
Enjoy 🔥
If supply chain disruptions were the main driver of price inflation rather than the growth of the money supply, then aggregate prices should go back down to their pre-COVID baseline, rather than remain at a permanently higher plateau and above-trend.
I’ve found that some investors don’t realize that beyond a very brief period, in a recession, US shale production will decline 2-3x faster than global oil demand has ever fallen in any recession in 60+ yrs (& shale’s been ~90% of global oil prod’n growth over the past decade).
The Proclamation
On this day I want to declare and attest to a revolution that for you, has just begun.
With the free SuperPrompt™️ below from the https://t.co/UXjDJDALWx archives you can be taught anything by top university professors in the world.
This is your personal education revolution.
It is just a start and as this technology continues to soar, let us know we can soar also.
This learning revolution is not to replace human educators but to lead you on a path of life long learning that will bring you to educators.
The world around you is changing and this is the AI wave, every singe human and their future is impacted.
It is the mission of https://t.co/UXjDJDALWx through future courses, symposiums and social networks to show that ALL OF US, will rise up and not be taken down by the fear of the unstoppable AI wave, no, we will rise up and surf the AI wave and we will do it together.
You and I will experience tragic events as some around us fear the wave, deny the wave or choose to go under. We will stand with them and be ready to help them up and join us.
Love the AI wave or not love the AI wave—it is here, take our hands…
Let’s ride!
Zoltan Pozsar FT op-ed: "But recently, the pace of de-dollarisation appears to have picked up. Over the past year, China and India have been paying for Russian commodities in renminbi, rupees and UAE dirhams..."
De-dollarization is about commodities
https://t.co/GitZBeizHH
It seems that #Zoltan has been quite busy lately!
The newest, already 5th part of his "War"-series, was published on January 6th.
In this little #thread i've summarized some of the highlights of his piece "War and Peace:
🧵
"Global oil trade is de-dollarizing slowly but surely" -FT
It's not happening from a position of EM strength, but rather out of dire necessity, to avoid the systemic crisis triggered by the "3rd Energy Crisis" that the BIS knew would come 40 years ago (& which is now underway):
"Once inflation goes above 5%, it has never come back down without the Fed Funds Rate exceeding the CPI"
Stanley Druckenmiller
US CPI (inflation) for Sept was 8.2%