I like the sound of “We are entering a time where more merchants and entrepreneurs could be created than any other in history.”
- Tobi, Shopify CEO
Go $SHOP go! 🚀
Oil flows in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply rebounded:
Persian Gulf crude oil exports surpassed 14 million barrels per day last week for the first time since the Iran War began on February 28th.
This marks an over +210% increase from the ~4.5 million barrels per day low seen in March.
As a result, the 4-week average is up to 14 million barrels per day, the highest level in 6 months.
Persian Gulf crude oil exports have now recovered to ~80% of their pre-war levels.
This comes as the US military has increasingly secured the Strait of Hormuz and established a two-way shipping corridor along the coast of Oman, allowing oil convoys to resume through the waterway.
Meanwhile, refined fuel shipments, including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, remain at only around 50% of pre-war levels, as these products are more expensive to transport than crude oil and some refineries in the Persian Gulf that were damaged during the early stages of the war have also yet to fully resume operations.
Oil flows are coming back, but the fuel market is still under intense pressure.
2 companies who have put on an absolute clinic over the last 2 weeks: @Meta and @Shopify
Really proud to see the RND team at Shopify making ruthless decisions around Ai, and knowing exactly what to protect/ not give away.
Playing absolute chess.
Turns out the people at the most AI-forward company in the world like working there. @Shopify is #3 on @Forbes' World's Best Employers.
https://t.co/P9hVm5Fc3r
If you ski, you know the name, Atomic. They've been one of my favourite ski brands since I was a kid.
For over 70 years, they've built skis in the same Austrian valley. It started with 40 pairs. Now they make more than 400,000 a year.
And now a brand new https://t.co/P6aJdYVqGg, built to show how their gear actually works. Powered by @Shopify.
@WisemanCap@Muse Agree, but also think it’s just one channel. One channel will never in a million years dominate all channels or those who help businesses integrate and fluctuate between all worthwhile channels and platforms. $SHOP is the hub to keep all channels in check.
OCTOBER FED HIKE ODDS DROP TO 50%
Markets now price a 50% chance of an October Fed hike, down from around 70%, after Fed’s Williams said there is “no rush to act.”
Williams still sees one more hike potentially needed by year-end, with inflation remaining the Fed’s priority.
https://t.co/qUEGIdb1ac
Market Breadth on the SPX is looking uglier and uglier - only a handful of stocks are holding up this market… again.
One measure that we use is the % of stocks above their 50-day moving average. This is now down to 25%. We’ve seen past instances of these episodes, and they tend to make the market lopsided.
The deterioration in breadth effectively started after Jackson Hole as the market started to price in a more hawkish Fed.
The chart below is a 10-year monthly chart, and it shows that we could very well see a pause in the index before moving towards all-time highs.
How bonds trade will make a difference. If the bond market settles down, we could see breadth catch up to the index. But if the market continues to price in higher risks, we could get that index correction.
@TheAlphaThought Did you say: “almost zero revenue growth and sales projected to keep falling through 2027.”?
Isn’t that synonymous with lower lows ahead?
Last week: Shop Pay in Muse.
This week: Shop Pay in Instinct.
Shop Pay is a trust marker for both merchants and shoppers. It should work everywhere people shop, and we won't stop until it does.
Can't wait to see where we are a week from now. This team doesn't stop.