Taniel

Daniel Nichanian. & founder of @BoltsMag. Local politics, criminal justice, voting rights.

[Taniel @Taniel]

@VThack Your reply to me was “every poll beforehand”. Do you still think your reply to me was correct?

[Taniel @Taniel]

LOS ANGELES UPDATE: An excellent update for Nithya Raman.

She wins today's batch over Spencer Pratt by almost 21%, which is over what she needs.

Pratt's lead over Raman (for the 2nd runoff spot, behind Mayor Bass) goes down from 5.9% to 3.4%.

[Taniel @Taniel]

@VThack FYI, what you are saying here is incorrect in a promptly verifiable way. This is the last big poll of the race late last week. It has Pratt in third position. https://t.co/qoQL5IiojT

[Taniel @Taniel]

The next BIG test, though, is this August referendum that would effectively kill citizen-led ballot measures in Missouri. https://t.co/nZFlFA4cmj

[Taniel @Taniel]

This hasn’t gotten a lot of attention, but the effort to chip away at ballot measures continues this Tuesday in ND.

[Bolts @boltsmag]

On Tuesday, North Dakotans will vote on a measure to restrict ballot initiatives by forcing them to cover only one subject. A similar rule in South Dakota recently led state courts to invalidate a ballot initiative legalizing marijuana.

https://t.co/tBK0VCzx8T

[Taniel @Taniel]

A conservative candidate in Indiana whose race is presently in a recount is combing voters’ social media to try to challenge voters, a practice that state observers say is new & unusual: https://t.co/kvfRvCjbd3

[Joe @electionsjoe]

Sure! In Colorado's 8th district, Dems were leading by 2% at the end of election night. Late mail ballots swung right and flipped the district red!

[Taniel @Taniel]

@jim742804 Raman got 33% of the ballots counted yesterday (June 4th) and 38% of those counted today (June 5th.). (A majority is above 50%.)

[Taniel @Taniel]

@jim742804 You must have misread the post you’re responding to; the top vote getter in today’s batch got 38% of the ballots counted, no one person got a majority.

[Taniel @Taniel]

@jim742804 What do you think that means?

[Bolts @boltsmag]

In a momentous decision this year, Wyoming’s supreme court struck down the state’s abortion ban. A justice who joined the majority in that case is up for retention this fall.

https://t.co/1RRrXD33Cy

[Max Tani @maxwelltani]

New: Kalshi and Polymarket have been sponsoring posts from users promoting viral LA election fraud conspiracy theories.

[Taniel @Taniel]

“The professor got a call from a dean asking whether she had assigned “anything with Palestine in it”.”

[Taniel @Taniel]

A professor at the School of the Art Institute of Chicago has been suspended because she designed an art therapy assignment included a mention a hypothetical woman who is "deeply affected by the violence against Palestinian civilians." https://t.co/Bol7ltsloA

[Taniel @Taniel]

My estimate yesterday was that Raman needed to win what was left over Pratt by 12-13% .

Today, after this batch (which she won by 21%), my estimate is that she has to win what is left over Pratt by 9-10%.

So she is certainly on track based on the latest results.

[Taniel @Taniel]

LOS ANGELES UPDATE: An excellent update for Nithya Raman.

She wins today's batch over Spencer Pratt by almost 21%, which is over what she needs.

Pratt's lead over Raman (for the 2nd runoff spot, behind Mayor Bass) goes down from 5.9% to 3.4%.

[Taniel @Taniel]

@DrEggPricing @TylerDinucci I have no idea what you’re saying. My next post on this thread says he got 18% of the votes counted today.

[Taniel @Taniel]

Xavier Becerra is the leader in the California governor's count as of now, 26.7% to 26.4%, and Steyer at 21%. (This is after Los Angeles' latest update.)

[Taniel @Taniel]

Of the almost 60K ballots counted today in city of LA, Raman got 38.6%. Pratt got 17.9%.

(Overall margin is now: Bass 35%, Pratt 28.4%, Raman 24.9%.)

[Taniel @Taniel]

There's still roughly a third of the vote. With Pan already ahead by 2 at this stage, it is hard to see Dems are shut out here, and the likely result is a Kiley vs. Pan runoff. Of course, we'll keep an eye on the continued count (including one more update in Placer Co today).

[Taniel @Taniel]

JUST IN: Democrat Richard Pan is now in 2nd place in #CA06, behind incumbent Kevin Kiley but ahead of Republican Michael Stansfield.

Sacramento updated its count for 1st time, & Pan nets 2800 votes over Stansfield in this large batch of ballots. He's ahead of him 23% of 21%.