Tascblue

I have a job trading bits for pieces. We make wrinkles, advertise them as creases

[Milk Road AI @MilkRoadAI]

Chamath Palihapitiya just dropped the number that explains the entire AI infrastructure trade (Save this).

A gigawatt of compute now costs $100 billion and when he started his Arizona data center project it was $4 to $5 billion, it has gone up 20x in a single investment cycle.

The implication is not just that AI infrastructure is expensive but rather that the capital barrier to owning meaningful compute has become so high that only a handful of entities in the world can actually build it and the companies who got there early are sitting on what may be the most durable pricing power in the history of the technology industry.

This is the neocloud trade.

The neocloud market, purpose-built GPU cloud providers like CoreWeave, Nebius, and Lambda Labs was worth $35 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach $236 billion by 2031, compounding at 46% annually.

For context, that is faster growth than cloud computing itself posted in its first decade.

The reason is very simple, hyperscalers like AWS, Azure, and Google are building for everything, storage, databases, enterprise software, networking and their GPU pricing reflects the overhead of that full-stack infrastructure.

Neoclouds build for one thing only, AI compute.

The result is a 60% to 85% cost advantage on the same Nvidia silicon, bare metal H100s at $0.78 to $2.79 per GPU-hour on a neocloud versus $3.43 to $5.07 per GPU-hour on a hyperscaler.

That spread does not close as AI demand scales but rather it widens, because hyperscalers have to amortize legacy infrastructure and margin expectations that neoclouds do not carry.

Gartner projects that by 2030, neoclouds will capture 20% of the $267 billion AI cloud market, and Vultr's own analysis says at least 80% of GPU market share by end of 2026 will be held by a small group of scaled neocloud providers.

Now zoom into Nebius specifically, because it is the most interesting publicly traded proxy for this trade.

Nebius is the infrastructure arm of the former Yandex Russia's equivalent of Google rebuilt from the ground up after Russia's invasion of Ukraine by Arkady Volozh and relisted on Nasdaq in October 2024.

The team that built it already knew how to run internet-scale infrastructure at the lowest possible cost, which is exactly the operational DNA a neocloud requires.

In Q1 2026, Nebius reported revenue of $399 million and already generating serious cash on a young business with revenue growing nearly eightfold year-over-year.

Then in March 2026, Meta signed a five-year infrastructure agreement with Nebius worth up to $27 billion, $12 billion in committed dedicated GPU capacity deployments beginning early 2027, plus up to $15 billion more tied to Meta purchasing Nebius's unsold third-party capacity.

The deal will be executed on one of the first large-scale deployments of Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, the next-generation architecture after Blackwell making Nebius one of a tiny number of operators in the world with confirmed priority access to the most advanced AI hardware available.

Following the contract, Nebius guided to $7 to $9 billion in annualized recurring revenue for 2026 representing 540% year-over-year growth.

@chamath point about the $100 billion capital moat is the bear case for new entrants and the bull case for incumbents.

No one can afford to build the next CoreWeave or Nebius from scratch at current hardware and power costs.

The companies that are already built, already contracted, and already deploying Nvidia's latest silicon have a moat that compounds with every GPU generation cycle because they get allocations first, they deploy fastest, and their customers re-sign rather than wait for a new operator that does not yet exist.

Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the complete neocloud competitive landscape, how to think about Nebius's valuation versus CoreWeave and AI entire thesis.

Link below.

[Tascblue @tascblue]

@steipete Lobster from the Bass

[David @david_eng_mba]

The One Number That Explains Bitcoin’s Price

The number is −0.65.

That’s Bitcoin’s Z-score.

If you’re not a statistician, here’s all that means:
a Z-score tells you how far price is stretched from what’s normal.

• Z = 0 → price is normal
• Z > 0 → price is stretched high
• Z < 0 → price is stretched low

It doesn’t predict hype.
It measures tension.

Here’s why −0.65 matters.

At this point after every prior halving, Bitcoin was above trend:
2012: +1.02
2016: +1.32
2020: +0.48

Today: −0.65
That has never happened before.

Not once in 15 years.

What the numbers say next

I ran the full dataset: 5,681 daily observations.

Every crash. Every bubble. Every macro regime.

The relationship between Z-score and future price is not weak.

Correlation to forward 18-month returns: −0.745
Variance explained by this single variable: ~56%

That means how far price is stretched explains more of what happens next than rates, CPI, narratives, or sentiment.

From Z ≤ −0.6 (where we are now):
• 12-month win rate: 100%
• Negative outcomes: 0
• Worst case: +47%
• Median outcome: +181%

From Z ≥ +1.0:

• Win rate: 44%
• Worst drawdown: −73%

That’s not opinion.
That’s asymmetry.

So why doesn’t price “feel” bullish?
Because Bitcoin is no longer being priced like a trade.

It’s being used.

Bitcoin now trades 24/7, settles instantly, and can be pledged as collateral. Capital can move through it without anyone smashing the buy button on an exchange.

That suppresses price temporarily.

It does not weaken demand.

The market calls that “no interest.”
The math calls it misclassification.

Meanwhile, supply math tightened permanently.

Issuance was cut in half in 2024.
ETFs absorb hundreds of BTC per day off-exchange.
Institutions accumulate quietly.

Selling exists but it’s being transferred from short-term holders to long-term balance sheets at roughly a 36% discount to network value.

That’s not distribution.
That’s inventory changing hands.

Mean reversion doesn’t need a catalyst.
Deviation half-life: ~133 days.

That means:
• ~50% of the gap closes in ~4 months
• ~75% in ~8 months
• ~90% in ~12 months

No optimism required.
No narrative required.

Time does the work.
This isn’t a trade.

It’s a position.

The bet isn’t that “Bitcoin moons.”
The bet is that math didn’t stop working this cycle.

Because when highly stretched systems snap back, they don’t negotiate.

They just move.

Macro does not determine Bitcoin’s long-term price.

Distance from equilibrium does.

[⚡️Mirthtime ⚡️ @mirthtime]

https://t.co/DijgAN84fi

[MAZE @mazemoore]

When you see Democrats complaining that the healthcare system is collapsing, be sure to forward them this.

Thanks Obama.

[Tracy Beanz @tracybeanz]

I NEVER thought I’d see the day where the Secretary of HHS actually told this truth. Share this clip with all of your friends. My gosh.

[Christopher Hazard @hazardc]

Grateful Dead [1080p HD Remaster] Live at The Spectrum - March 18, 1995 [Full Show]
PREMIERE TONIGHT 930 PM EASTERN
https://t.co/hH1MPX9f2D

#gratefuldead #jerrygarcia

[Max Keiser @maxkeiser]

The financial services industry works on the same principle.

“Sheer don’t slaughter” is a common bit of advice given to brokers on Wall Street.

[Tascblue @tascblue]

What a ride
#Bitcoin

[halfin @halfin]

Running bitcoin

[Tascblue @tascblue]

@Thecryptomist Peepcoin is the next revolution!!!!

[Wide Awake Media @wideawake_media]

Having been called a liar by Anthony Fauci for saying that "not one of the 72 vaccines mandated for children has ever been safety tested", RFK Jr. sued Fauci.

After a year of stonewalling, Fauci's lawyers admitted that RFK Jr. had been right all along.

"There's no downstream liability, there's no front-end safety testing... and there's no marketing and advertising costs, because the federal government is ordering 78 million school kids to take that vaccine every year."

"What better product could you have? And so there was a gold rush to add all these new vaccines to the schedule... because if you get onto that schedule, it's a billion dollars a year for your company."

"So we got all of these new vaccines, 72 shots, 16 vaccines... And that year, 1989, we saw an explosion in chronic disease in American children... ADHD, sleep disorders, language delays, ASD, autism, Tourette's syndrome, ticks, narcolepsy."

"Autism went from one in 10,000 in my generation... to one in every 34 kids today."

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening in China?

Just days ago, China announced MASSIVE economic stimulus as their economy crashed.

Now, retail investors are piling into stocks like pandemic-era stimulus is back.

Something is seriously wrong in China and it's too late for stimulus.

(a thread)

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it!

Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years.

The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the “Democratic” Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!!

Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers”, who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election.

America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only “elections” will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty.

The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape.

Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco.

[Townhall.com @townhallcom]

Kamala Harris kicked off her first interview with yet another word salad.

CNN's DANA BASH: "What would you do on Day 1 in the White House?"

HARRIS: *rambles without answering the question*

BASH: "So what would you do Day 1?"

[Tascblue @tascblue]

@elonmuskADO A

[Nebraskangooner @Nebraskangooner]

If #ChiefsKingdom win the Superbowl tonight I'll give $200 in #Bitcoin to one of my followers who retweets this.

[CBS Saturday Morning @cbssaturday]

This morning on #SaturdaySessions, a first-time pairing of Grammy winners and bluegrass giants Billy Strings and Chris Thile.

For the first time ever as a duo, here's @BillyStrings and @christhile with "I've Been All Around This World."

[💎 Bitcoin Chris 🧡 @ChrisKnight407]

#bitcoin fixes this

[Tascblue @tascblue]

Looks like the #Bitcoin Bear is finally headed for hibernation
Good luck to all for the coming Bull
This should be a fun one
Place your bets!