ToastyToast

human mammal. Chocolate snob. I enjoy my anonymity here. Passionate, but highly distractible, life long learner #ADHD

[Michael McFaul @McFaul]

PS I’ve met Putin many times and listened in on calls with him as well. I also speak Russian. Yes he is soft spoken, deliberate, and measured. So what? He’s still a killer. He still launched a barbaric invasion of Ukraine, that has produced tragic loss of life not seen on this scale in Europe since WWII.

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

Does it make sense to deport a man who overstayed a visa but otherwise has no criminal record when his deportation means shutting down a food pantry that serves meals to 7,000-8,000 needy people a month?

Does choosing not to exercise discretion in his case make America greater?

[Jake Sherman @JakeSherman]

Now we can say it definitively.

Elon Musk donated $158M to SLF.

SLF donated $158M to Texas PAC.

SLF is Texas PAC's only donor.

Elon Musk is singlehandedly funding Texas PAC, which is boosting Ken Paxton.

[Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD DSc(hon) @PeterHotez]

For less than that we could have finished off final testing on our human hookworm anemia vaccine, a leading cause of anemia in women of reproductive age, pregnancy, and poor neonatal outcomes in Africa, achieved licensure and manufactured the vaccine for distribution at $2/dose, within a few years it would save countless lives

[(((Dorit Reiss))) @doritmi]

A real loss. She was a wonderful journalist and a caring person.

"Helen Branswell, a renowned infectious disease reporter who earned the respect of experts and public health officials around the world ...died Tuesday at age 69."
https://t.co/3I4UqzCO8z

[(((Dorit Reiss))) @doritmi]

"The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is proposing to expand a controversial loophole to allow some of the world’s most toxic chemicals to be added directly to food without a safety review."

https://t.co/tTAvi7jQej

[Phil Williams @PhilNvestigates]

How a growing network of Reformed pastors and influencers is blending segregationist theology, the manosphere, and internet outrage to monetize white supremacy. https://t.co/KqNq2tohQX

[capitolhunters @capitolhunters]

Read down 🧵to get the lede: the US had indicted a Russian man as a "malign influencer seeking to interfere in the US elections"; his charges rated 15 years in prison. We offered a $10M reward. Montegnegro arrested him. Then Trump intervened to get him released back to Russia. 1/

[Yuliia Pavytska @JPavytska]

Have you all seen Trump’s announcement of his SUPER PUTIN DEAL? Russia promises to immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the market, including the US, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November. Then come promises of EVEN BIGGER volumes. Because the deal has to be HUGE. At least in the post.

OFAC, of course, wasted no time issuing a temporary waiver until April 7 to accommodate the president’s latest “GENIUS” deal.

Except the BIG DEAL is not actually that big. More of a stage prop. Very Trump.

Let’s do the maths. Actual numbers. TERRIBLE, I know.

300,000 tonnes is roughly 2.2 million barrels of diesel.
500,000 tonnes is roughly 3.7 million barrels.
In September, Russia managed to export just 0.1 million barrels. Basically none, as there is export ban.

So Putin has already “sold” Trump a volume 22 TIMES larger than Russia’s entire September exports. Making promises is, of course, easier than rebuilding refineries after Ukrainian strikes. MUCH EASIER. SOME SAY THE EASIEST.

Meanwhile, Russia’s diesel export ban remains in force until October 31: the fuel is needed domestically, and Ukrainian drones have significantly reduced Russia’s ability to produce it. A VERY SUCCESSFUL phone call with Trump is unlikely to have fixed those problems.

Now for another comparison. Russia’s average monthly diesel exports last year were 18.3 million barrels. The promised deliveries amount to just 12% and 20% of that volume, respectively.

So we have a promise that Russia still needs to find a way to fulfil, given the state of its refineries. And even if delivered, it looks considerably less impressive than the presidential CAPS LOCK. Not quite THE GREATEST DEAL IN HISTORY.

The political logic is clear. The war with Iran and high fuel prices are a bad backdrop for the elections. One would hope politically FATAL, at this point. The administration desperately needs a story about how the president is about to FIX EVERYTHING. Preferably IMMEDIATELY. Preferably without explaining how we got here in the first place.

So perhaps the main product of this deal is not even diesel. It is another attempt to calm the market with a BIG, BEAUTIFUL ANNOUNCEMENT. Let’s see how much credibility these announcements still have.

Russia, of course, will sell this as a HUGE VICTORY. And why wouldn’t it? Promise diesel you still need to find somewhere, get a sanctions waiver UPFRONT. Plus another opportunity to tell the world that it simply CANNOT MANAGE WITHOUT RUSSIA.

But what worries me most is that this spectacle could weaken our European partners’ resolve. Trump’s latest “breakthrough” must not become an excuse to ease sanctions pressure on Russia — precisely when that pressure needs to INCREASE.

Of course, this decision will benefit Russia by generating additional revenues. We’ll be watching how much of its export capacity Russia actually manages to restore. One thing is CLEAR: Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries need to INTENSIFY.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

We need way more diesel than what they're offering and what they're offering they cannot satisfy. That seems to be a consensus view among energy experts. So Russia gets immediate sanctions relief while gas prices remain more or less the same. If I were a cynic I might conclude this is a sneaky attempt at rapprochement with Moscow couched in the language of affordability, with a decisive election less than a month away. All it does in the short term is provide more money for Russia to wage war on Ukraine.

[The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent]

⚡️Exclusive: 'It felt like a trap.' How Ukraine was blindsided by Trump's Putin pivot

When U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner told Ukraine’s delegation on Oct. 9 that President Donald Trump was preparing to lift sanctions on Russian diesel exports, the Ukrainians struggled to believe what they were hearing, the Kyiv Independent reports.

https://t.co/GnXEqirbOA

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

WOW. At the start of the video, two guys wearing civilian clothes and no visible badges run up to a car with guns drawn. One man begins smashing the butt of his gun into the driver’s side window one second later, and the driver appears to panic and hit the gas.

Looks really bad.

[Prof Peter Hotez MD PhD DSc(hon) @PeterHotez]

Here’s the Aedes aegypti risk map from @eLife the entire Gulf of Mexico is at risk (Gulf of America too) from TX to FL that could mean not only the return of dengue, but also Zika, Chikungunya, attached are my concerns about yellow fever as well, it’s why we organized a school of tropical medicine in the @TXMedCenter https://t.co/fSiIazwJZG

[Pope Leo XIV @Pontifex]

Invoking the name of God to legitimize violence or oppression constitutes a profanation of His name. Nothing that violates human dignity can claim authentic divine inspiration. Religious discourse must constantly call for hearts and words to be disarmed. #ApostolicJourney #France https://t.co/f5Q6CnXQZS

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

"Tens of thousands of children" have been separated from their parents after ICE deported them before they could reunite.

[Pandemic Center at Brown School of Public Health @pandemiccenter]

Last week saw another 200+ reported US #measles cases, the last major spike in the US was in January 2026.

Stay updated on ongoing US outbreaks and global infectious disease news with our weekly Tracking Report ⤵️
https://t.co/hiBS7LU8Vv

[Nate Mook @natemook]

Horrific scenes out of Kyiv this morning as Russia used a jet-powered drone to blow up Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. People are escaping through windows as the building burns. Just like they target kindergartens and schools, now they are bombing science.

[Aaron Reichlin-Melnick @ReichlinMelnick]

This a perfect example of the ways in which mass deportations eventually impact EVERYONE in ways their proponents continue to pretend don't exist. You think Peter's going to forget this experience, or the feelings it brings up? Hell no. Trauma splashes beyond its intended target.

[Noah Hurowitz @NoahHurowitz]

I just checked this on a woman I'm writing about and indeed she is no longer showing up in the system. This is insane.

[theleahfiles @leahfiles]

People keep saying Trump term II is the most corrupt administration ever, so I built a model to find out if it was true.

I took the UN's definition of corruption, turned it into eight criteria and 100 points, and scored the leaders history remembers for looting their countries: Marcos, Suharto, Mobutu, Abacha, Obiang, Putin.

Then I put every president since Eisenhower on the same scale, both parties, with every exoneration counted right alongside the convictions.

Nixon scored 41 and no other American President scored over a 25.

Trump's second term scored a 91, which ties him with Suharto and Mobutu and puts him above Marcos and Abacha.

So he is not only the most corrupt president in American history. At this pace he finishes his term level with the most corrupt rulers of the last hundred years.

PSA: don't come in my comments arguing about the results if you haven't read the full article, because ignorance is a choice.

Full article is up now on my Substack (link in bio) and it's free.