Judah Rhodie/Secretary

Ex-HF CEO, ex-Broker Dealer CEO now born again options trader My substack for Rhodie House Option Intelligence is

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

US 10Y yield back at 5% - the 2006 level

US marketable Treasury debt:
2006: US$4.4t
2026: US$30tn+

Almost 7× more debt for the market to absorb at 5%

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

US diesel cracks are ripping higher—in tandem with WTI.

The technical term for this in the oil industry is a “midterms clusterfuck.”

And yes, this has never happened in recorded history…! Better send that $5k cheque now—and another one in November.

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

A devastating verdict by an astute regional military observer. Lesson: toys won’t buy battle field effectiveness.
Anyway, the apparent Saudi amateur hour will matter for oil markets, ie Bab el Mandeb flows to Asia - or rather the lack thereof
@LSREnergy
https://t.co/PQvq4IySda

[Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش @citrinowicz]

I’m sorry to say it, but based on the Saudi Air Force’s performance during its previous campaign in #Yemen, I would be very cautious about assuming that airpower alone can stop the current Houthi advance.

Saudi Arabia possesses some of the most sophisticated aircraft and weapons systems in the region. But advanced platforms do not automatically translate into battlefield effectiveness. What ultimately matters is the integration of intelligence and strike capabilities, pilot training and operational experience, target acquisition, battle-damage assessment, and, critically, coordination between air and ground forces.

Dropping precision-guided munitions is not a strategy. The challenge is even greater today because the Houthis are not the same force Saudi Arabia confronted a decade ago. They have accumulated significant combat experience and developed increasingly sophisticated air-defense capabilities, making sustained air operations more difficult and potentially more costly.

I hope I’m wrong. But if past performance is any indication, I would not build a strategy for stopping the Houthis around the assumption that Saudi airpower will be decisive.

The uncomfortable truth is that Saudi Arabia cannot confront the Houthis alone. The events of last night only reinforce that reality.

This is no longer simply a Saudi-Houthi confrontation. The Houthis have developed capabilities that pose a broader threat to regional security, maritime trade, and freedom of navigation.

If the objective is to contain that threat effectively, Riyadh will need more than its own military capabilities. It will require a broad and credible international coalition willing to share the operational, intelligence, and political burden.

That is the painful lesson: Saudi Arabia cannot carry this fight by itself, and pretending otherwise will only give the Houthis more room to expand their leverage.

And again, I sincerely hope I am underestimating Saudi Arabia’s military capabilities.

But I cannot shake the conclusion that when it comes to the Houthis, the Saudis need help, and they need it quickly.

This is not about the quality of Saudi weapons systems. It is about the scale, complexity, and evolution of the Houthi threat. Riyadh should not be expected to confront that challenge alone.

I hope the Saudis prove me wrong. But hope is not a strategy, and neither Washington nor Saudi Arabia should build its policy around the assumption that Riyadh can handle the Houthis by itself.

#iranwar

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

All right

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

She missed the Shale oil price collapse in 2014 ff; the Trump Iran waiver rug pull in Q4 2018; the Covid massacre in 2020; the oil glut 2023-2025; and every other oil move down - always arrogantly so. Group think of the worst kind; long-only cult.
https://t.co/jMqWfVTMpZ

[Energy Aspects @EnergyAspects]

'We've been telling our clients for some time now, crude is poised to move sharply higher'

Founder and Director of Market Intelligence @ea_amrita was live on @CNBC yesterday discussing crude pricing. During this interview, Amrita covered:

- The 'eyewatering' pace of crude drawdowns in inventory and the numbers since the middle of August
- How, now runs have started to pick back up, we've seen a massive over-tightening in crude markets
- A mixed long-term outlook, from restocking demand to oversupply concerns, and even the risk of recession

You can watch the full interview here - https://t.co/4KK7PSwmLQ

#EnergyAspects #Crude #OOTT

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

Wakey wakey

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

The Trillion Dollar Bribe

@LSREnergy
https://t.co/jNNB4G8H1G

[Jonathan Pie @JonathanPieNews]

The Trillion Dollar Bribe
https://t.co/Oo5IriYhuu

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

U can buy every toy the US & Europe will sell u. It won’t give u a quality military. Powerful militaries are built on code, honour, discipline, training, leadership, purpose & the iron will to win. A sense of belonging to something worth defending. https://t.co/QEd48SyOdo

[OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical]

Houthi forces captured the key coastal city of Mokha overnight after Saudi/UAE backed forces retreated.

Seen here, Houthi fighters pose with an abandoned M-ATV MRAP at the city’s critical seaport.

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

China‘s weapon testing lab. Ugly!
https://t.co/zM7akeuZTS

[Jason Brodsky @JasonMBrodsky]

"The attempted strikes on warships have led to much closer calls than previous attempts, with #Iran using maneuverable warheads, people familiar with the attacks said."

https://t.co/uUJntu5Uxn

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

Everybody wants to buy, not earn voters.
The left wants to buy block votes with “leaning centers”; the right now calls it “dividends”. Corrupt nutters all around
https://t.co/8aBuWqxXCS

[Rapid Response 47 @RapidResponse47]

.@POTUS announces the TRUMP DIVIDEND: If Republicans win both the House and the Senate, because of our tremendous economic success, I will issue a dividend to every adult citizen in the United States for $5,000

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

醒醒

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

👀
https://t.co/4jWKRPx11P

[Dr. Christoph Canne @ChristophCanne]

Ich sehe nur einen Weg, wie der Niedergang des Landes und der Union aufgehalten werden kann.
Er ist nicht ohne Risiko, aber das hat sich die Union selbst zuzuschreiben:

1. Merz entlässt alle Minister der SPD.
2. Merz erklärt im Bundestag seinen Rücktritt.
3. Der Bundestag wählt einen Kanzler mit den Stimmen der AfD. Mir fällt aus den Reihen der Union nur Frau Reiche ein.
4. Eine Minderheitsregierung der Union treibt wirkliche Reformprojekte an: In der Energiepolitik, Migrationspolitik, NGO Defunding, Bürgergeld zurückfahren. In der Außen- insbes. Russlandpolitik m��ssen andere Mehrheiten im Bundestag organisiert werden.

Das Risiko kommt insbesondere daher, dass im Gegensatz zum Februar 2025, wo dieses Szenario noch leichter durchsetzbar war, die AfD heute wesentlich stärker geworden ist und siegestrunken ihr Blatt überreizen könnte. Das muss sie aber auch wohl überdenken, denn viele wählen sie gerade deshalb, weil die linksgrüne Merz-Politik beendet werden soll.

Der Vorschlag eines neuen Kanzlers muss durch den Bundespräsidenten erfolgen. Auch dies natürlich ein Risikofaktor. Steinmeier könnte seine desaströse Amtszeit krönen, indem er sich dem Szenario in den Weg stellt.

De-facto ist es aber aus meiner Sicht das einzige Szenario, das am Ende des Tages die Union überleben lässt.

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

Hmm... looks weird here... A Saudi VLCC caught a hit last week and the Saudis practically killed their OSP.

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

Goldman on oil

Friendly reminder before the pitchforks come out, this is from GS oil desk, not my personal take.

Please don't be mad at me guys.... Dropping the spicy charts in the thread below.

#oott #iran

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

2

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

@MadFights_ Yo

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

@mswaterifunasty @thebadvirgo_ Absolutely

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

@HardRockSB Luca

[Judah Rhodie/Secretary @Tay513]

@HardRockSB 27