Tyler Caruso

[Tyler Caruso @Tc3545]

@theparthrastogi Prices not seen since 5/21 in SpX

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$VSXY Our promotional ensemble detected the inflection in Victoria's Secret from dramatically reduced email campaigns and discounts. Both VS and Pink reduced steep discounts. When organic demand explodes brands do not need to push promotions to the inbox!

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$LULU Shares making 6 year lows, we uploaded the Random Walk indices to Claude here's what it said: "The promotional volume (especially desperation) prefectly coincided with comps and shares turning negative, its a textbook case of the market catching up to what the promotional volume showed"

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$RH Another dud. As demand has faded our promotional ensemble picked up the massive ramp in steep discount campaigns. Excessive spring clearance, extended sales, more 70% off language. The first thing a struggling brand does is throttle up campaigns.

[Tyler Caruso @Tc3545]

@Wisdom_HQ 116

[Tyler Caruso @Tc3545]

@TheRayMyers $AMR

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$PRKS $FUN Theme park attendance on the decline. Hard to compete with engineered addiction of smart phone swipes and wallets shrink. Other 'theme park' like experiences that consumers might skip ? $SPHR, $MODG $PLAY $CZR $CCL, $RCL $MTN How is a cruise ship, top golf or skiing different, I guess the boat moves....slowly.. or a fake golf ball dribbles 90 yards into a net.?

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

Didn't take long for the unusual emails we tracked in cruise to translate to weak guidance. The wall street idea that tapped out consumers 'switch' from more expensive vacations to cruisin doesnt pass the common sense main street test. $NCLH weak forecast, $CCL $RCL

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$CMG Traditional Wall Street research and training just results in a 'buy the dip' mentality all the way down the wave. Avoid the wipe out by thinking independently. Our promotional ensemble has revealed unusual 'free' campaigns for many months.

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

Are there any better ways to understand how management views their own organic demand than by their promotional email campaign volumes and intensity?? $CMG

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$SFM Too much inflation, and coming competition for the boss. Same store sales 6% ---> 1% . Our promotional ensemble caught the ramp up in significant discounts. Don't miss the next airball!

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

Can you send 'free' $CAKE and eat it too? Is going out to eat getting too expensive? Our promotional ensemble captured excessive 'free' campaigns ahead of today's miss on sales and management noting a soft consumer. Are other restaurants like $WING , $CAVA, $BROS $MCD, $CMG, $YUM escalating campaigns?

[Matt McClintock @MattJMcClintock]

$TSCO reports October 23rd and seems clear implied hockey stick comp guidance on high end isn’t happening. Random Walk shows promos 3QTD worse than any comparable time this decade. Not sure what Hal was thinking here to keep a 7%+ 2H comp in guidance.
https://t.co/FeUpwEgDHo

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$AEO Our promotional ensemble detected a sharp drop in email campaigns, steep discounts and max discounts as the Sydney Sweeney great jeans campaign continued to have a much larger impact on organic demand. #americaneagleoutfitters #altdata $ANF, $GAP $LEVI

[Tyler Caruso @Tc3545]

@RedDogT3 You are an inspiration. Thanks RD for sharing your journey!

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$RCL When companies are seeing robust organic demand with fixed capacity such as rooms on a cruise ship the first thing management does is reduce discounts. Our ensemble revealed this reduction in significant discounts.

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$PLNT CFO quits...(cough) "retires" and provides a weak outlook. Our ensemble tracked an escalation in promotional email volume as Planet Fitness reacted to weak signups partially due to weather, but mainly bc people are less interested in their gyms.

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

$ETSY vs $WMT Preferences change. COVID-style crafts and masks vs. groceries to feed the family. Guess which one is slowing and which one sent a multi-year low on discount emails last week?

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

Dont miss the next big inflection in retail. Our promotional ensemble identifies changes in how brands are communicating with leads before the blow up. HeyDude and Croc's promos were exploding ahead of their recent reduced growth outlook.

[Gregory Robin @RWResearch]

Camping World reduced their dividend in a panic, sending shares south, as pandemic driven RV and camping gear mania abates. Our promotional ensemble altered our investors ahead. We have been tracking dramatically higher steep discount email volumes. $CWH. #retail #discounts