Proof of Vision

Studying Bitcoin's price structure. Power law, cycle models, forecasting. Work in progress.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

Most Bitcoin content is opinions dressed up as analysis.
I'm taking a different approach: starting from the quantitative literature (power law scaling, cycle modeling, forecasting methods) and building understanding from the ground up.
Work in progress. Follow along.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@MerlijnTrader Bitcoin doesn't require French certification to function....The risk for Bitcoin is the BTCs in P2PK addresses, not transactions. BIP-360 voluntary migration addresses exactly this.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@mathhub_vn If y is a real number, there is no solution. If If y is in Z2 every element is a solution. :P

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@DaniREscudero @Rajatsoni Quoting past drawdowns without considering the magnitude of the preceding rally is meaningless. A 90% drawdown after a 1000% move is not comparable to a 90% drawdown today. You're comparing apples to oranges.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@HarshitUSA @MolecularLab_ There are two solutions, both positive. Because it's a symmetric system of equations, (A, B) and (B, A) are always both valid solutions.

S1 = (15/2 - sqrt(145)/2, 15/2 + sqrt(145)/2)
S2 = (15/2 + sqrt(145)/2, 15/2 - sqrt(145)/2)

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@WhaleNoName The revenue comparison ignores margins.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@SiamXzy @AdamBLiv @sunny051488 S2F predicted specific prices in specific windows and failed. The power law describes a scaling law, not a point forecast. R^2=0.96 on 16 years isn't "meaningless".

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@DeFi_Hanzo Buffett had record cash in 2024 too. Markets kept going up. He also had elevated cash in 2021, 2019, 2017. He accumulates cash when he can't find value Moreover: he's warning about dollar debasement while holding $334B in dollars. Worth noting.

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

Good news.

The peer-reviewed journal where we submitted the first Power Law paper has sent us the reviewers’ comments, and they are generally positive.

They suggested that the paper could be published if we make some relatively minor revisions.

It would be a major milestone when the Bitcoin Power Law is finally recognized as a scientific result that has passed peer review.

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

I gave the example of the elephant.

If the food is there, the tusks will grow according to a power law. But the law does not magically create the food. The growth requires resources.

Bitcoin is similar. It needs “food” too: users, miners, capital, infrastructure, liquidity, energy, developers, institutions, and social adoption.

The interesting part is that power laws are often sustained by feedback loops. Growth attracts the very resources needed to continue the growth. More adoption brings more liquidity. More liquidity attracts more capital. More capital builds more infrastructure. More infrastructure makes Bitcoin more useful and resilient. That, in turn, supports further adoption.

So is the price increase inevitable?

Not in a mystical or guaranteed sense. But if the network remains alive, open, secure, and useful, then the power law suggests that sustained long-term growth is the natural trajectory of the system.

It is not destiny. It is conditional inevitability.

Given the evidence so far, Bitcoin remains one of the strongest examples we have of a human-made system growing like a natural one.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@wacy_time1 These zones need a model behind them. By what methodology is 80K "expensive"?

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@coinbureau The real bottleneck isn't physics SegWit took 2 years and caused a chain split. Post-quantum migration is more complex. BIP-360 voluntary migration is the right approach, but "voluntary" in a decentralized network with a 2030 window is a coordination problem no one has solved yet

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@MichaelAArouet Look at salaries in Italy

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@TheRealPlanC Just buy 1950 :P

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@cryptorover The man warning about dollar debasement who won't touch Bitcoin is the most ironic trade in finance right now. Buffett warned the dollar could collapse. His answer: hold $397 billion in dollars and Treasuries. He's not telling you to sell, he's waiting to buy the dip.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@AltcoinDaily "Never sell Bitcoin" was Strategy's foundational narrative. Selling Bitcoin to fund STRC dividends ends that narrative permanently.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@coinbureau "Never sell Bitcoin" was Strategy's foundational narrative. Selling Bitcoin to fund STRC dividends ends that narrative permanently.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@WatcherGuru "Never sell Bitcoin" was Strategy's foundational narrative. Selling Bitcoin to fund STRC dividends ends that narrative permanently.

[Proof of Vision @tech_giant39231]

@Cointelegraph "Never sell Bitcoin" was Strategy's foundational narrative. Selling Bitcoin to fund STRC dividends ends that narrative permanently.

[Mike Brock🇺🇸 @brockm]

Jeff is very confused. He does not know what he is talking about. This does need to be said.