"Because AI took all the money."
Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) is co-founder of BitMEX and one of the most-read macro writers in crypto. While everyone waited for the next leg up, he explained why the money stopped flowing into crypto and what brings it roaring back.
"There's no cash to go to crypto. AI sucked it all up and it'll keep sucking it up until the bubble bursts."
We cover:
- Why ~$1.5 trillion of new money since ChatGPT went to AI instead of crypto, and what that did to Bitcoin
- Oil, Iran, and the inventory-restocking shock he thinks the market is mispricing
- Why he exits a trade the moment the asymmetry is gone, even one he's loved for months
- What he hunts instead: maximum hate, minimum downside, room to run
- Why he's "more concerned with capital preservation than capital accumulation"
- The convexity philosophy: betting on 1% odds becoming 10%, not 50% becoming 75%
- Why Bitcoin really stalled and why Saylor isn't the reason
- Why he refuses to trade a four-year-cycle calendar
- "The big print": the crisis he's staying liquid for, and why that one moment sets up two decades of returns
Thanks to Arthur for coming on @new_era_finance.
Highlights:
00:00 - A Deal, Oil, And What Markets Are Pricing
08:00 - Why Crypto Got Left Behind
09:32 - "AI Took All The Money"
24:00 - When He Exits A Trade He Loves
30:00 - What He's Hunting Now
33:57 - The Convexity Philosophy
41:51 - Why Bitcoin Really Stalled
43:55 - Why He Won't Trade A Calendar
45:18 - The Opportunity Nobody's Ready For
46:12 - "The Big Print" And Staying Liquid
INSIGHTS:
Tom Lee just put the entire Bitcoin opportunity into one comparison.
"The best years in crypto are definitely ahead."
Here are the numbers that back it up.
Today there are only 4,000,000 Bitcoin wallets holding $10,000 or more.
That's the entire serious holder base. Globally.
Now compare it to traditional finance.
900,000,000 IRA and brokerage accounts worldwide hold $10,000 or more.
A market 200 times larger.
Sit with that for a second.
For all the noise.
All the headlines.
All the institutional adoption.
Bitcoin has barely scratched the surface of who could own it.
They just haven't allocated yet.
Now layer in what's happening right now.
- The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve being built.
- The CLARITY Act moving through Congress.
- Pension funds starting to allocate.
- Sovereign wealth funds buying.
The infrastructure to bring those 900,000,000 accounts in.
Is being built as we speak.
This is the entire bull case in one stat.
The demand isn't here yet.
The capacity for it is enormous.
And the supply is capped at 21,000,000 forever.
Tom Lee isn't talking about the next pump.
He's talking about the next 200x of adoption.
You're not late.
You're early to something most people haven't even noticed.
🚨 THE WAR ON CRYPTO IS ESCALATING FAST.
Crypto is now being framed as a national security threat in Washington.
Catholic organizations are now urging Congress to oppose major crypto legislation, warning it could create loopholes for traffickers and organized crime.
They are trying everything to block the Clarity Act.
🚨🇪🇺 RIPPLE GETS MICA APPROVAL 🇪🇺🚨
Ripple just received preliminary MiCA approval, unlocking the path for regulated payment services across the European Union’s €18T economy.
A major milestone for global adoption.
XRP keeps expanding its global footprint.🔥
#ALTSEASON 2026 💸
NOBODY IS READY FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING.
ALTS SPENT YEARS BUILDING PRESSURE.
NOW THE LID IS COMING OFF.
IF THIS MOMENTUM CONTINUES, THE NEXT FEW MONTHS COULD REWRITE THE ENTIRE MARKET NARRATIVE.
-----------------------------------------
Shill me your 100x gems! 👀💎
👇
BREAKING:
Tether just shut down its gold-backed stablecoin.
XAUT is being wound down.
The dollar-pegged token backed by Tether's own tokenized gold. Gone.
The company's reason: shifting focus to areas with "stronger demand and broader market opportunity."
Read between the lines.
Tether isn't retreating from anything.
It's concentrating its firepower.
Here is the bigger picture.
- Tether already holds $127,000,000,000 in U.S. Treasuries.
- Already one of the largest gold buyers on earth, rivaling central banks.
- Already the most profitable company per employee in history.
Killing a niche product isn't weakness.
It's focus.
The gold-backed experiment didn't have the demand.
The dollar-backed flagship USDT prints money.
So Tether is doing what every dominant company does.
Cutting what doesn't scale.
Doubling down on what does.
While Europe bans USDT from regulated exchanges.
Tether is streamlining for the next phase.
The most powerful stablecoin issuer in the world.
Is sharpening its focus.
Not slowing down.
Europe's regulator tells unlicensed crypto firms to wind down as the MiCA clock hits zero
With MiCA's grace period ending July 1, ESMA has told crypto firms without authorization to start winding down their EU operations now. The bloc's markets watchdog wants an orderly exit, not a scramble.
The rules are strict. Unlicensed firms must stop taking new EU clients, halt all marketing, and limit activity to helping existing users sell, transfer, or close out. Custody is allowed only long enough to complete an exit, and AML checks stay in force the whole way. The bar also catches non-EU firms serving EU clients, including B2B.
@ESMAComms also issued a warning to users: clients of unlicensed providers receive none of MiCA's investor protections, and directed them to the ESMA Register to verify whether their platform is actually authorized.
I repeat the same story a few times, but this is generally my case:
#Altcoins will have their summer when there's more and more confirmation that #Bitcoin doesn't drop beneath the 200-Week MA.
That's why these weeks are critical.
If this does hold, I assume liquidity pours back into the markets and we'll see strong returns on the altcoin markets.
Bitcoin is back at the 200 Weekly Moving Average.
I do think it's likely $BTC drops below the 200WMA this year.
But, historically this is the bottom zone.
We're close now!
On‑chain inheritance goes confidential: CIP has migrated to Arbitrum and built its inheritance logic with iExec TEEs. ⚡️
iExec x @CIPInheritance x @arbitrum 🤝
MICHAEL SAYLOR SAID LIVE ON CNBC THAT BITCOIN BOTTOMED AT $60,000 AND THAT WE ARE ABOUT TO GO PARABOLIC SOON
“WE ARE MOVING INTO SPRING.”
“WE WILL RALLY FROM HERE.”
HE KNOWS WHATS COMING 🚀
THE SIGNAL THAT PREDICTED EVERY MAJOR BITCOIN CRASH JUST TRIGGERED AGAIN.
And the math is brutal.
2014: -51% from this level.
2018: -46% from this level.
2022: -55% from this level.
2026 fib level: $78K. 50% dump means $47K.
$78K is the last line of defense.
Lose it → three cycles say $45K is next.
Hold it → this time is different.
Three cycles say don't ignore this.
Are you prepared for both outcomes?
Two new referenda on Polkadot's OpenGov, #1909 and #1910, propose a series of staking parameter updates designed to optimize the network security model while reducing overall security costs.
Together, these proposals aim to strengthen validator incentives, enable better user experience and reduce overall risk for the nominators with a 48-hour unbonding period.
Ref #1909 builds on the previously approved 10,000 DOT minimum validator self-stake requirement. It introduces rewards for validator self-stake, sets validator commission to 0%, and enables permissionless chilling of under-bonded validators.
Referendum #1910 specifies changes for nominators. It removes nominator slashing and reduces the unbonding period from approximately 28 days to two days for nominators. These changes will be fully activated upon a successful governance vote and once the validator set has fully adapted to the new staking requirements.
The proposals seek to rebalance staking responsibilities between validators and nominators by increasing incentives for validator self-stake while simplifying participation for nominators.