@missmayawolff@jan_choutka@VirusesImmunity@microbeminded2 One possibility might be that people normally dont all get the same virus in such large numbers. So Dr might only see one patient a year or less that sees these symptoms after a virus. Becomes hard to study deeply without the numbers
@Clarksterh@megtirrell So for FDA, it’s likely more justifiable to let the 1 vs 2 dose be determined by manufacturer strategy and approve only those that pass phase 3. Even if world may be better off w/another strat, it might be safer for FDA long term trust to not be responsible for a mistake.
@Clarksterh@megtirrell The counter argument of course is that this isn’t a lab experiment. All decisions have to be justified under a do no harm/ equipoise standard. Thus any vaccine protocol that crosses the 50% efficacy line phase 3 is justified. Even if others would also work.
Very excited to finally see this out - work from my PhD performing single-cell analysis of transcription and secretion of macrophages stimulated with opposing polarization cues @NatureComms https://t.co/hVoteLDqNa
Yesterday @drsanjaygupta@cnn amplified an idea 🙏🏼 we’ve been pushing since April— we need #BetterMasks. We are now finishing up a proposal to @POTUS to operationalize this. It’s not good enough a year in to both say “wear a mask” & “fold up a t-shirt”
Hey, I know it's late, but Democrats had an extremely concerning briefing tonight where Capitol Police detailed three different potentially gruesome plots.
One involves encircling the Capitol and assassinating Democrats on their way into the building.
https://t.co/LN5grOeUIM
Frequent testing in New England colleges at the @broadinstitute has been massively successful to squash “outbreaks” before they become outbreaks!
These offer strong evidence for frequent testing - but we don’t hear much about them bc few report on the absence of outbreaks.
@FredrikPaulsson @Noirecissist@NateSilver538 How do you think audience should consume models and polling data? I worry that while the intent may not be to induce these cognitive errors, the business model—clicks—is. This isn’t an academic paper where consumers marvel at the math. People click to see if who is winning.
@NateSilver538 Also what responsibilities and purposes are there to prediction? Is it like weather reports—prepare populace for inevitable? Is it to incite change in the losing party? Mere curiosity?
Could polling on policy ideas instead of candidate preference better serve the public?
@NateSilver538 Perhaps there should be Heisenberg uncertainty principle of sorts for predictions of human behavior. The more precise the measurement, the more perturbed the result. If you were to claim 100%, surely the act of publicizing this automatically changes the odds
@aribindi@NateSilver538 Agreed. But would small enclose office spaces have the incentive to allow work from home without a shutdown period that forced investment/ adaptation?
Perhaps other incentive structures could have achieved the same...
@tuemay @crytpo1 @lovemesomemusk @elonmusk@StephenKing I know it can be frustrating but no test is perfect. Even the best test fails due to chance when applied to millions of people. This doesn’t mean it’s useless. Some will quarantine accidentally. But isn’t it worth it to save thousands of from true infection?
@elonmusk But since you aren’t asymptomatic the chances that your positive test is true positive is much higher.
Also the antigen test likely has different sensitivity/ specificity
@elonmusk Bayesian math.
CA positive rate of 4%. If you are truly asymptomatic then net pretest probability is 4%. Sensitivity of pcr is around 70%. Specificity around 95%.
Thus a single positive test means you have a 37% chance of positive.
https://t.co/o9Gptc9UVW
I’m devastated: We could lose 150,000 more American lives by wk after inauguration, mostly in our Heartland mostly red states. Some of the kindest nicest people whose lives will be destroyed. I’m on a mission to try & save those lives since the leaders who should care, just don’t