$TSLA now has 676,000 active FSD monthly subscribers. So let's do the math:
676,000 x $99/month x 12 months = $800M revenue run-rate ANNUALLY (& $640M GP annually with 80% margins).
Just last quarter the revenue run-rate was $566M!
This is an increase of 41% in just one quarter!
Next quarter, the revenue run-rate will increase to over $1 billion.
And so on and on.
I am even more confident in this earlier post. v15 and its improvements are what they are waiting for to deploy more and more @Robotaxi at scale. It was reported that an early version of FSD v15 is running on the robotaxi fleet now. There is no doubt in my mind they are post training based on the performance of this model in the same way we get many small point releases on every consumer version of FSD. Once they are happy with the FSD v15 build the robotaxis will come quickly .. IMO. @Tesla_AI
Two brand new robotaxis in Houston.
Have also seen 5 red cars and 2 other black cars today.
Wait time has been under 9 mins in the rain. Have not seen high service demand in a while.
The service is starting to become usable!
What % of the 'Active FSD Subscriptions' are paying customers?
What's the conversion rate on free trials?
IMO this is the most important metric BY FAR for $TSLA for the next few quarters.
10 million active paying subscribers at $99 per month is $12 billion per year in incremental revenue at essentially pure profit.
It's just a software upgrade.
Tesla should have a fleet of 10 million cars capable of turning on FSD within the next 3-5 years. Perhaps sooner.
A 50 P/E on that recurring earnings is a $600 billion market cap just on FSD Supervised, with a growing fleet every quarter into a massive transportation TAM.
Doesn't include Energy, Bot, Unsupervised FSD, Robotaxi, Distributed Inference, Terafab, and synergies from the inevitable SpaceX merger (Drones, AI satellites, eVTOLs).
The long term of the company has never looked better. But the stock won't do much until Tesla can consistently show growing profits from these verticals.
Once they do, the folks that don't accumulate in the coming months will probably kick themselves.
NFA.
I've been in downtown Austin all day, and Robotaxi rides have been consistent throughout the day. Nine minutes is the longest wait I've seen. The service is efficient, practical, and extraordinarily reasonably priced.
Dear @elonmusk,
You last bought 2.57 million $TSLA shares in the open market at about $389 per share in September 2025.
It’s trading around $316 today, about 20% cheaper. Any plans to buy the dip?
@elonmusk the confusing part was where you have documented 0 accidents or incidents in testing miles you quoted as a team in the call, but are not scaling at all. No one understands this. It looks like sandbagging hard and we don't understand.
Patience is paying off $TSLA
Now trading back in our discount range
This is a very strong support long term
Expecting $280 -> $300 worst case, but I am now interested in buying
Will do a video update later this afternoon
$TSLA has entered the Long Term Buy Zone 🚨
Last time this happened, it took 60 days for price to bottom
Then rallied 100% in 6 months
In today's video, we break down the current setup on $TSLA and how I see things playing out over the next 6 - 12 months
Watch Now ⬇️
Tesla FSD % adoption has been historically touted at single digits to low teens.
Now in North America (largest FSD capable area), 55% of car sales are shipping with the FSD subscription selected by the buyer.
FSD is selling cars. Likely a point of meaningful inflection 👍🏼