Théodore Renault

PhD in Int'l Economics at @IHEID and Economist at the @ecb. Former @OECD and @PSEinfo. Views are my own & RT not endorsements.

[VoxEU @voxeu]

What regional data tell us about the euro area Phillips curve
Anna Beschin @ecb, Joan Paredes @NBS_sk, Gaetano Polichetti @BostonCollege, Théodore Renault @Th_Renault @IMFNews
https://t.co/7yBJvq0322

[Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @Isabel_Schnabel]

In addition, firms may pass on a higher share of labour costs to consumers. The pass-through of higher wages into producer prices is typically very strong in the services sector, implying that profit margins would need to decline strongly for the baseline to materialise. 18/24

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

Important speech on inflation by @Isabel_Schnabel citing our work with @marco_jacopo and M. Ampudia on the wage-price pass-through in the EA.

The paper is now published as a ECB WP https://t.co/dyAbquIIvx

A policy note summarising the results will soon be published, stay tuned!

[Frederik Ducrozet @fwred]

@Isabel_Schnabel .@Isabel_Schnabel lists several reasons why the baseline of gradual disinflation might go wrong, including sticky ULC, higher pass-through to prices, inflation expectations, or geopolitics. All calling for policy to remain "focused" and "robust".

[European Central Bank @ecb]

For details on a proposal for a new profit indicator based on total supply, read our #EconomicBulletin

https://t.co/AKsp0q6jLY

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

Instead, the estimates hint at an important role for international competition in the domestic market for the tradeable sector.

They also suggest that the sales destination matters: wage growth contributes to domestic inflation for goods but not to export inflation.

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

Happy to see this project with @marco_jacopo and Miguel Ampudia published today as a BIS WP !

Thread below 🧵

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

The wage-price pass-through is significantly larger in services provided by the private sector and takes longer to fully unfold compared with the industrial sector https://t.co/ri5spCyhbV

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

How to explain this heterogeneity?

While a higher labour intensity is a key component of the pass-through, our estimates indicate that differences in sectoral labour shares alone cannot explain the larger wage-price pass-through in private services compared to industry.

[Bank for International Settlements @BIS_org]

The wage-price pass-through is significantly larger in services provided by the private sector and takes longer to fully unfold compared with the industrial sector https://t.co/ri5spCyhbV

[𝙐𝙜𝙤 𝙋𝙖𝙣𝙞𝙯𝙯𝙖 @upanizza]

New @cepr_org paper with Salim Chaine & @suedekum on the effects of @IMFNews programs on borrowing costs

1/ We study the effects of #IMF program size on yield of bonds issued before and after IMF arrangements.

Let's dive in.

A short 🧵with links below

[Marco J. Lombardi @marco_jacopo]

Also featuring a preview of an upcoming working paper of mine…

[Centre for Finance and Development @GVAGrad_CFD]

Today at the Annual Congress of the SSES, Théodore Renault, Ph.D. candidate in International Economics at IHEID, will present his paper "Heterogeneous Wage Phillips Curves: A Matter of Skills?"

#economics #wages #phillipscurve #research #SSES

Program: https://t.co/x3Fe5rebHG

[SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum @suerf_org]

#SUERFpolicybrief “Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission” by Sebastian Hauptmeier (@ecb), @FHolmhad (ECB), and @Th_Renault (@GVAGrad)

#MonetaryPolicy #RiskSharing #RegionalHeterogeneity #LocalProjections #QuantileRegressions

[VoxEU @voxeu]

Monetary policy & risk sharing do not just operate alongside each other; the strength & composition of risk sharing fundamentally shapes the real effects of monetary policy & its regional incidence.
F Holm-Hadulla, S Hauptmeier @ecb, @Th_Renault @GVAGrad
https://t.co/iKDWQ0NniU

[Richard Baldwin @BaldwinRE]

The entanglement of risk share & monetary policy transmission
•
This @voxeu column shows the strength & composition of risk sharing shapes the real effects of monetary policy, its regional incidence, timing

https://t.co/pxCLu7c4OE

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

Excited to see our paper (joint with @FHolmhad and S. Hauptmeier) on risk sharing and monetary policy transmission published in the ECB Working Paper Series! A thread⬇️

[European Central Bank Research @ECB_Research]

🧵New Working Paper by @FHolmhad, @Th_Renault and S. Hauptmeier: Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission https://t.co/h7EjDwxg2p 1/4

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

@BFMTV 17% inflation? Les prévisions de l’OCDE pour la Suisse sont de 2.5% en 2022 et 1.8% en 2023. https://t.co/xNq4tMzUKf

[Théodore Renault @Th_Renault]

Very interesting talk by @MarcelloEstevao on debt in emerging and developing countries this morning at @GVAGrad, moderated by @upanizza.