A backtest is not a promise.
It is not proof that a strategy will make money.
It is a controlled experiment with assumptions.
And every assumption matters.
Fees.
Slippage.
Execution.
Liquidity.
Funding.
Partial fills.
Position sizing.
Liquidation risk.
Market regime.
Data quality.
Ignore those or even slightly underestimate them, and the backtest may still look clean, but the out-of-sample will start to decay.
But reality will not be clean.
The job is not to build the prettiest equity curve.
The job is to understand what needs to go wrong before the strategy stops working.
That is where the real learning happens.
https://t.co/a6C3n3h1Xd
I don't know who needs to hear this, but
PLEASE DON’T EVEN TRY TO SHORT THE MOVEMENT THAT IS HAPPENING NOW
I'll explain it very simply:
A change in the geopolitical agenda (China-US, tariffs), a change in Trump's rhetoric regarding the markets, a sharp influx of large capital, a huge number of "sidelined" players (this has already become a meme) who were caught off guard by the reversal and are eager to jump into their favorite coins on any pullback
This is actually why pullbacks are instantly eaten up
When I tried to short something like this before, it always ended badly
Now I trade exclusively from the long
Maybe this text will help someone save their trading capital