That X Handle

Post high conviction stock stories.

Not financial advice. Do your own research.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@StockSavvyShay Here's the $CRWV story

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X84 - $TER: Teradyne

Every AI chip has to pass a test before it ships.

Teradyne builds the testers.

Q2 sales: +104%.
The stock: about 33% below its high.

Current Financial Quality Score: 98/100 (A)
Est. fair value: $353.59 (~9% above the $325.00 price)

𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗱𝘆𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗴𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲:
• Makes machines that test chips before they ship, plus factory robots
• Q2 revenue $1.33B, up ~104% year over year
• Took a $300M stake in FormFactor ( $FORM) to co-develop probing for AI memory (HBM) and photonics
• Partnering with Tokyo Electron (Tokyo-listed) on AI and data center test cells
• New launches: 𝘔𝘢𝘨𝘯𝘶𝘮 𝘌2 for HBM/DRAM, 𝘜𝘭𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘍𝘓𝘌𝘟𝘱𝘭𝘶𝘴 S Series for edge AI, 𝘛𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘯 𝘏𝘗 burn-in
• Robotics (𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘢𝘭 𝘙𝘰𝘣𝘰𝘵𝘴, 𝘔𝘪𝘙) near $100M a quarter, 5 straight quarters of growth
• ROIC 38%, net cash, PEG 0.73, but ~52x earnings and a thin 1.5% FCF yield
• Falling 10 days straight, RSI 33

𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: 𝘚𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘬𝘺, 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘵 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘱 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴
Once a chipmaker runs its lines on Teradyne's 𝘐𝘎-𝘟𝘓 software, switching can take years.

𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀:
• Advantest (Tokyo-listed), its main rival in a near-duopoly
• FormFactor ( $FORM), now a partner as well as a peer

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– Q3 earnings Oct 27 (est. EPS $2.04, revenue ~$1.27B)
– Whether chipmakers keep spending if rates stay high
– A few big buyers make up much of its sales

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X83 - $TSM: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Nvidia ( $NVDA), Apple ( $AAPL) and AMD ( $AMD) design the chips.

$TSM builds them.

It just posted a sixth straight record quarter and raised its 2026 growth outlook to ~44%.
The stock still slipped ~2% after earnings and sits ~15% below its October high.

Current Financial Quality Score: 100/100 (A)
Est. fair value: $465.25 (~13% above the $412.61 price)

𝗧𝗦𝗠𝗖 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺:

• The world's largest contract chipmaker, building designs for Nvidia, Apple, AMD and many more
• Q3 net income rose ~69% year over year to ~$23.6B, on revenue up ~41%
• Raised its full-year 2026 revenue growth outlook to ~44% and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3–54.3B
• Chips at 7nm and below make up ~79% of wafer revenue, and 2𝘯𝘮 production is ramping
• Building a new 3nm mega-fab in Tainan and bringing new fabs online in Taiwan, Japan and the U.S.
• Exploring further U.S. expansion beyond Arizona, including Texas
• Signed a 5-year, $2B capacity deal with GlobalFoundries ( $GFS)
• More cash than debt, with a ~56% operating margin
• 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: The most advanced chipmaking and 𝘊𝘰𝘞𝘰𝘚 packaging at a scale no rival can match. 𝘞𝘪𝘥𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘳
• 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Samsung Electronics (Seoul-listed), Intel ( $INTC), SMIC (Hong Kong-listed)

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– Gross margin dipped to ~66% as 2nm ramps up
– Overseas fabs could trim margins by 3–4 points over the next few years
– Capex of $60–64B this year keeps free cash flow yield low (~1.6%)
– Management flagged softer consumer chip demand into 2027
– Most production is still in Taiwan, with geopolitical risk
– A hot U.S. inflation print has pressured chip stocks ahead of the Oct 28 Fed meeting

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X82 - $SKHY: SK Hynix

Q2 2026: sales up 257% from a year ago, a ~76% operating margin.

October 2026: the US-listed $SKHY shares fell ~29%.

Same company, same AI memory boom.
Q3 results land Oct 28 in Seoul. Which number wins?

Current Financial Quality Score: 99/100 (A)

𝗦𝗞 𝗛𝘆𝗻𝗶𝘅 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗱𝘀 𝗔𝗜 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀:

• Makes DRAM, NAND and 𝘏𝘉𝘔, the high-speed memory stacked next to Nvidia's ( $NVDA) AI chips
• Holds about half of the world's HBM market
• Q2 revenue hit ~79T won (~$55B), up 257%, with ~60T won in operating profit
• Now shipping 𝘏𝘉𝘔4 in volume and sampling HBM4E
• Pledged a 40T won (~$29B) share buyback and cancellation
• Free cash flow yield of ~6.6%, at ~9x earnings
• Broke ground on an HBM packaging plant in Indiana and is in talks to lease part of Intel's ( $INTC) Ohio fab
• US shares listed on Nasdaq in July and trade at a premium to the Seoul shares
• 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: HBM know-how, advanced packaging and deep ties with Nvidia. 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘚𝘢𝘮𝘴𝘶𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘬
• 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Samsung Electronics (Seoul-listed), Micron ( $MU), CXMT (China, private)

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– Memory is cyclical, and prices can fall fast if AI spending cools
– China's CXMT claims a major data center DRAM breakthrough
– Its US factory plans are tied to US export licenses for its China plants
– Equipment costs are rising, including a 10% hike on ASML ( $ASML) spare parts
– Rate fears and Korean margin calls have hit the stock hard
– Q3 earnings Oct 28 (Seoul time)

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[Twig @Twigisaddicted]

@thatxhandle SK Hynix if you haven’t :)

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@Twigisaddicted Sure. Follow for updates 👍

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

We will do a deep dive on the below stocks next:

$TSM $TER $PDD $CPAY $FTNT

Follow for updates ♥️

Comment if you want other stocks instead.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@MapleStax That's called $VIX strategy. Right? 😉

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@jimcramer Is it time to sell $AAPL then? (just kidding 😉)

For Apple bulls, stock deep dive for you:

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@Rennix7t Interesting observation

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X81 - $SMCI: Super Micro Computer

$SMCI vs Dell ( $DELL): both build AI servers around the same Nvidia chips.

Super Micro trades near 13x earnings. Dell trades near 34x.

The gap has a reason: Super Micro grew sales 78% last fiscal year but burned ~$7B in cash doing it.
The stock fell ~10% today.

Current Financial Quality Score: 84/100 (A)

𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗶𝗰𝗿𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝘂𝗻 𝗔𝗜:

• Builds complete AI server racks around Nvidia ( $NVDA) chips, often with liquid cooling
• Fiscal 2026 revenue rose ~78% to ~$39B, with ~$2.2B in net income
• But free cash flow was about −$7B as it paid for inventory
• Lined up a $7B financing package, including a program to sell new shares
• Appointed a new CFO on Oct 14, formerly CFO of Western Digital ( $WDC)
• A federal judge dismissed a securities fraud suit on Oct 16, though plaintiffs can refile
• Now shipping racks for Nvidia's newest AI platform
• Gross margin has slipped to ~11%
• 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: Speed to market and modular, liquid-cooled designs. 𝘛𝘩𝘪𝘯, 𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘣𝘶𝘺 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘴𝘢𝘮𝘦 𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘱𝘴
• 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Dell ( $DELL), Hewlett Packard Enterprise ( $HPE), Lenovo (Hong Kong-listed)

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– A contractor pleaded guilty to diverting AI servers to China, and a co-founder is charged (he denies it; the company is not charged)
– New share sales could dilute existing holders
– A few large customers make up much of its revenue
– Dell and HPE are winning more AI server deals
– Down 7 days straight and below its 200-week trend
– Earnings expected Nov 3

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

N5 - Friday's biggest stock moves (Oct 16)

CoreWeave's week: −16.7%, +5.9%, −14%.

That's the AI debt scare in three days, and it dragged chips down with it.
Here's what moved Friday:

𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆'𝘀 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 (𝗢𝗰𝘁 𝟭𝟲):

• CoreWeave ( $CRWV) −14%: Debt worries came back. Its bonds have been trading at yields near 15%, and investors keep questioning how it will fund its data center build-out.

• Alcoa ( $AA) +6.7%: Q3 adjusted EPS of $1.82 beat estimates of $1.51. Revenue rose 23.7% from a year ago to $3.70B, and net income roughly doubled to $483M.

• Super Micro Computer ( $SMCI) −8.9%: Heavy selling in AI server makers as funding worries spread across AI infrastructure.

• Travelers ( $TRV) −4.4%: Adjusted EPS of $9.18 easily beat the $7.25 estimate, but catastrophe losses rose about 34% to $538M and business insurance pricing is cooling.

• Intel ( $INTC) −5.8%: Chip stocks extended their multi-day slide.

• Micron ( $MU) −5.6%: Worries that memory chip prices may be near a peak outweighed its recently expanded buyback.

• Broadcom ( $AVGO) −3.2%: Slipped along with the rest of the AI chip group.

• M&T Bank ( $MTB) −1.2%: Q3 operating EPS of $5.08 beat estimates of $4.98 on loan growth, but rising expenses and lower deposits weighed.

• Tesla ( $TSLA) +0.5%: Unveiled its new 𝘙𝘰𝘢𝘥𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘳 with SpaceX-developed thrusters. Shares jumped nearly 5% before the open, then gave most of it back ahead of next week's earnings.

• Truist ( $TFC) −0.4%: Q3 revenue of $5.30B came in slightly short, but shares recovered most of an early 2.5% drop.

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– Whether AI data center builders can keep funding their plans
– Chip stocks' multi-day slide
– Tesla reports earnings next week
– S&P 500 −1.1%, Nasdaq −2.1%

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@Mr_Derivatives $VIX above 30 on Monday then?

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@maxreturns_ @AIGryffindor Assuming 0 is little extreme IMO

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X77 - $ADSK: Autodesk

The market spent months worried AI would replace design software.

$ADSK jumped ~6% today as that fear cooled and it bought new file-sharing tech.
It still sits ~24% below its high.
Is AI a threat to Autodesk, or just another feature it sells?

Current Financial Quality Score: 94/100 (A)
Est. fair value: $420.10 (~72% above the $244.80 price)

𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻:

• Sells 𝘈𝘶𝘵𝘰𝘊𝘈𝘋, 𝘙𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘵 and 𝘍𝘶𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 to architects, engineers and builders
• ~97% of revenue comes from subscriptions
• Q2 revenue rose ~16% to $2.05B, beating forecasts
• Closed its $3.6B purchase of 𝘔𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘟 in August, moving into managing buildings after they're built
• Bought BIMDeX's technology to make design files work across more tools
• A securities fraud suit was dismissed in January, though the plaintiff has appealed
• Suing Google ( $GOOGL) over its use of the "Flow" name for an AI video tool
• Cut ~7% of staff in January to shift spending toward cloud and AI
• 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: Its file formats are the industry standard, and the workforce is trained on its tools. 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘦𝘦𝘱
• 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Dassault Systèmes (Paris-listed), PTC ( $PTC), Bentley Systems ( $BSY), Trimble ( $TRMB), Adobe ( $ADBE)

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– AI tools that design on their own could cut demand for traditional CAD
– EPS fell ~7% year over year
– The MaintainX deal was funded with new borrowing and must be integrated
– Stricter license audits have upset some customers
– Still below its 200-week trend
– Earnings expected Nov 24

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@AIGryffindor @maxreturns_ lol. Nice discussion nevertheless

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

X80 - $MPWR: Monolithic Power Systems

Every AI chip needs clean, steady power.

$MPWR makes the chips that deliver it, and its data center sales grew ~130% from a year ago.

Yet the stock is ~10% lower this month, after a rival's patent complaint triggered a trade probe.
Q3 earnings land Oct 29.

Current Financial Quality Score: 95/100 (A)
Est. fair value: $1,393.83 (~14% above the $1,222.46 price)

𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀:

• Designs power-management chips for AI servers, cars, factories and devices, with partners doing the manufacturing
• Q2 revenue rose ~48% to ~$981M, beating forecasts
• Data center sales grew ~130% year over year
• Signed a long-term manufacturing deal with GlobalFoundries ( $GFS)
• Won a patent case against Bel Power Solutions, part of Bel Fuse ( $BELFB)
• Reported to be in line for a large share of power parts on Nvidia's ( $NVDA) next AI platform
• Holds more cash than debt, with a ~29% operating margin
• Insiders sold over $40M of stock in late September
• 𝗠𝗼𝗮𝘁: Packs more power into less space through its own chip design and packaging. 𝘙𝘦𝘢𝘭, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘪𝘭𝘺
• 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀: Texas Instruments ( $TXN), Analog Devices ( $ADI), Vicor ( $VICR), Infineon (Frankfurt-listed)

• 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴:
– A U.S. trade agency opened a patent probe after a Vicor complaint (allegations, not rulings)
– Growth leans heavily on AI server spending, which can swing fast
– At ~83x earnings, there's little room for a miss
– Free cash flow yield is under 1%
– All three momentum trends are falling into earnings
– Q3 earnings Oct 29

𝘕𝘰𝘵 𝘍𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘈𝘥𝘷𝘪𝘤𝘦. 𝘋𝘰 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩.

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@MapleStax Also learn about $VIX and how it creates opportunities. (posted a story about $VIX today)

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@maxreturns_ @AIGryffindor Interesting take

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@maxreturns_ @AIGryffindor Seriously? Okay ChatGPT design me a nice building with trees on the top. Make no mistakes 😉

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@MrMikeInvesting For those interested in knowing more about $VIX

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

I2 - $VIX fear gauge - a short lesson

[That X Handle @thatxhandle]

@TheRonnieVShow Current Financial Score 40/100.
Estimated fair value $22.82 (-28.4% downside).

Rev growth 11.7% QoQ, Debt/cash 0.6x.

Hope this helps making an informed decision on $ZETA - Zeta Global Holdings Corp (NFA)