The Autonomy Guy

Autonomy, robotics & stocks | Self-driving trucks, AV tech & automation plays | Charts, news & no-BS takes | Not financial advice ⚡

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Q2 ended 11 days ago.

Aurora said it would haul with no observer in Q2.
Kodiak said it would hit mid-30s driverless trucks.

Neither has said a word.

I track every dated promise in AV trucking. 125 so far.
16 delivered. 5 missed or late.

Nobody's keeping score. So I am.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@j69777 @Mr_Derivatives perhaps - but orders will be in for delivery. when do they recognize $$? upon delivery? (not sure)

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@Aktieland if they have the production capacity - this limits/challenges any generic. good move

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Aurora told investors it would haul without a partner-requested observer starting Q2 2026.

Q2 has closed with no launch PR.

The trucks are running. The safety-case sign-off to pull the last human out is the piece that hasn't been confirmed.

The next report settles it. Until then it's a promise, not a delivery. $AUR

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Aurora had driven about 280,000 driverless truck miles as of May.

Waymo passed 200 million driverless robotaxi miles by February.

More than 700 to one. Same word, driverless, two different points on the curve.

Trucking isn't behind because it's failing. It's behind because it started later. $AUR $GOOGL

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Waymo's cumulative driverless miles: 50M at the end of 2024, 100M by mid-2025, past 200M by early 2026.

That's 4x in about 14 months, and the pace is holding as it adds Las Vegas and three more metros.

More cars, more cities, more data, faster.

The technical question was answered a while ago. This is a deployment curve now. $GOOGL

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@unusual_whales They said they would get it - one way or another..

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Aurora's upfitter, Roush, can build roughly 20 driverless-ready trucks a week, about 1,000 a year.

At that rate, manufacturing capacity is not what caps the rollout.

The gate is the safety case, the evidence that lets Aurora keep pulling humans out of the cab.

Everyone watches truck counts. The number that matters is the one partners sign off on. $AUR

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Seyond says its lidar will be in robotaxis across more than 20 cities by year end, on a fleet near 1,400 units.

It's a single-source, self-reported figure, and roughly 74% of its revenue still comes from one customer, NIO.

Big deployment claims are cheap to make and hard to verify.

The tell isn't the press release. It's a third-party city count that matches it.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

While everyone watches long-haul highway trucking, Gatik went fully driverless at scale first.

In January it became the first US company running driverless trucks at scale for commercial delivery, on short middle-mile routes.

Shorter lanes, fixed customers, tighter operating domain. Easier to make safe, easier to sign off.

The first driverless freight at scale looked boring.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@TransportTopics @FMCSA @_NoelFletcher Immigrants are an important source of labor for the truck industry.

Continues focused on curbing that (illegal immigration) will continue to drive challenge on laber.

Autonomy is the way

$AUR

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@CardboardCarver @unusual_whales You are right.. I was also diagnosed at an early age

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@JOBhakdi is wrong.

Semi full autonomous driving is the unlock.

A straight line on interstate overnight 800 miles is solvable - tech is there now.

Navigating city streets fighting regulations.. that bet will take years to pay off

[Jo Bhakdi @JOBhakdi]

TSLA is cooked until Robotaxi (or Optimus) scale.

I know it has been very frustrating - but looking at the facts, I do believe Robotaxi is imminent (next 6 months).

I was too optimistic for May / June, but progress is happening and Cybercab scaling is a clear indicator something is up.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

There’s a small window, where you can hug people before it gets awkward.

Like if you pick your BIL up from the airport, but the line is moving and you don’t get out of the car…

Then you missed it, you can’t do it when you get back to your place.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@Aktieland The sky is the limit ;)

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

@CardboardCarver @unusual_whales Just be happy I can’t vote :)

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Another issue that would be completely solved with autonomous truck driving

Especially when we're talking about the last part of an 11-hour shift

[Rob Carpenter @RobCarpenter]

At 75 mph, 12 seconds means driving 1,320' blind. More than four football fields.
You dont need driver-facing video to know there is a problem. Hard braking. Close following. Lane departures. Erratic steering. Pitch, yaw and repeated near misses.
The telematics are the indicators, not managing those is what takes carriers to court and to the cleaners.
Hard braking is usually not the problem. Its the symptom.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Tesla's Austin robotaxi geofence covers the entire metro, roughly 4,300 square miles.

The fleet inside it, per third-party trackers: about 28 cars.

Waymo runs roughly 4,000 robotaxis across 10+ cities. Geofence is a press release. Fleet is the business. $TSLA $GOOGL

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Unitree's first quadruped, the Laikago, sold for $45,000 in 2018.

The Go2 today starts at $1,600.

A 96% price drop in six years, most of it before humanoids became a mainstream trade. The cost curve in robotics is steeper than most models assume.

[The Autonomy Guy @TheAutonomyGuy]

Walden Robotics spun out of a Toyota lab in January. By July it raised $300M at a $1.1B valuation.

Six months, lab to unicorn.

It already has a robot running 8-hour shifts at a Toyota plant, loading parts and kitting for assembly. Backers include $NVDA and $BA.