The Basement View

Follow the money.

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66%: Texas Tortures Trump

https://t.co/wK700wycbw

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@Polymarket Surely he is the chair after his cognitive test results.

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The Basement Book

The first news publication to put money behind their opinions on open markets.

https://t.co/cbiPL0zUL3

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@Polymarket Punished by Jail or Punished in Jail?

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Mr Turner reached 31% in September before sliding to 7%, and a price that can treble without news can halve without it too.

Amazon MGM is expected to name its man before the year is out.

Until then, it's a straight shoot out.

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‘Bond’ Market Volatility.

Jack Lowden had the sort of week most Bond hopefuls would kill for.

@Polymarket's response was to mark Lowden down.

He still leads, at 37%, but six points lower than a week ago.

[The Basement View @thebaseview]

Does someone know something that the market does not?

On Kalshi, Mr Turner was priced at 39% last week, and British bookmakers have him joint favourite with Mr Lowden.

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@Polymarket The Art of the Deal

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@Polymarket

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@PolymarketSport Thirty six clubs, eight matches each, and a table nobody understands until January.

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@PolymarketIntel Optimism is free. Signatures are scarce.

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@GaetenD In 2016 the markets and most models had Clinton as favourite. Nobody in this business has a spotless record.

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@IAPolls2022 Hinson at 57.5% in a state Trump won by thirteen points. The interesting part is that it is not higher.

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@PollTracker2024 Iowa's polls have had an awkward few years. Traders have Hinson at 57.5%.

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@KalshiPolitics The Democrat 70.5%, Rogers 30.5%. Michigan's last Senate race was decided by a third of a point.

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@Kalshi Economists call it core inflation. Motorists call it a technicality.

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@KalshiPolitics Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 76%. The rivals agree, which saves everyone an argument.

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@Polymarket Unlikely is a frequency, not a verdict.

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@Polymarket Likely things fail all the time. That is what likely means.

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@phillipgrove @KalshiPolitics If you are correct, you could be a wealthy man @phillipgrove