Sapien

Trying to 3x my stack 4 times in a row (3^4=81)
#Crypto #Investing Analysis, lessons learned, frameworks
Data x Math | Finance x Tech Engineer

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

🚨 Plot twist: The Internet is evolving without us

Web1: Machine-to-machine
Web2: Human chatter
Web3: AI agents running the show

[rektdiomedes @rektdiomedes]

Mini-Thread: Cycle Thoughts

🧵

"Is this cycle over?!?"

Well... I certainly don't think so :)

First of all... our high so far is $3.9T overall crypto market cap, so that would be a mere 30% gain over the peak of last cycle, which was $3.0T overall crypto market cap...

So... if somehow things went drastically wrong and we stayed down for the next two years I don't even know if you could call this a cycle... merely a little echo boom or something...

But that is not what I think is going to happen anyway :)

It seems to me that we are just seeing a little macro-induced blip, just like we have over and over again the last few years...

The $DXY (ie US dollar index) and the 10 year (ie 10 year duration US Treasury Note ie US government bond) have been surging and that pushes stonks and crypto down and makes things harder on the rest of the world and starts sending all the economies of the US' allies into danger territory...

Next the Fed and Treasury will tweak some levers like they have over and over again the last 2.5 years every time this happens, and then things will get back to normal.

Only thing that could make this instance slightly different is that we're in the middle of the Biden > Trump transition...

Correspondingly we're seeing Bessent take over for Yellen as Treasury Secretary (Powell stays in place over at the Fed because the logistics are a bit different with that position)...

So... this macro-induced blip could take a little longer to play out... but ultimately I think the outcome will be the same, they'll shift up issuance a bit or change some bizarre esoteric policy detail or create some new acronym program and then things will go right back to normal...

"Will this cycle look just like last cycle?!?"

This is a fascinating question...

Crypto has basically seen three cycles so far of huge, relatively quick run-ups... followed by swift crashes... followed by multi-year bear markets...

We all tend to act like this is the only thing that can happen, but really I don't see why that has to be the case...

I DO think its possible that crypto- as a totally permissionless market- tends to see an organic boom/bust cycle, which may mirror a pattern seen in all markets going back all throughout history...

So perhaps, everything else being equal, in a vacuum, we would see these four year cycles play out the same over and over...

However... in this current reality we're living in, crypto is increasingly tied to global liquidity flows, and passive investment flows in the US now that the ETF's are live, and as a result it seems rational to expect it to be less and less idiosyncratic and more tied to what are ultimately political decisions by the Fed and Treasury and US government (and other governments and central banks and etc)...

As a result, I don't see why we couldn't hypothetically witness all sorts of weird scenarios over the next few years...

We could see crypto go up 50% per year every year for the next four years... with many dips like this along the way... or we could see a flat year then a 100% gain then another flat year then another 100% again... etc...

Also as stablecoins become a bigger and bigger part of the economy that introduces another factor that is somewhat independent of pure speculative cyclicality...

Conclusion:

Its impossible to know how all this stuff plays out... but I have more conviction in the long-term success of crypto than I ever have before...

I think it is almost a foregone conclusion at this point that the entire global economy moves onto blockchain rails over the next 30 years...

And therefore unless you are a short-term trader, the real question becomes how best to bet on that long-term adoption.

Similarly, we know Trump likes high stock prices and it appears his attitude towards crypto prices will be the same going forward... and we know he favors economic growth even at the risk of a bit more inflation... so that suggests the next four years - no matter how rocky month to month- should be bullish for our magic internet coins overall...

So, as always, keep putting in the reps bros, and if you are in the trenches doing day-to-day trading, perhaps have some long-term bags you don't touch to help with preserving peace of mind amidst these temporary blips 💪

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

@rektdiomedes Degen genes runs strong in the family 🫡
also with these farmer-carry stats, no one can say you don't have diamond hands

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

TLDR: Alt season is seasonal. It happens Q1 and Q2 each bullish year.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

The REAL "alt-season" hasn't even started yet.

I just found compelling evidence suggesting that the true rally is imminent.

The TRUTH is: Alt-season isn't a random occurrence. It's a distinct seasonal phenomenon which is about to begin.

🧵: Everything you need to know.👇

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

@rektdiomedes channeling my room-temperature IQ left curve self, I'm thinking: if Gold did $10T with ETF bid, Bitcoin can do it too.

TardFi chasing Stablecoins profits will build all the infrastructure and legal BS frameworks to transact and make crypto ownership mainstream along the way

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

if my friend Diomedes is right, $300k Bitcoin is Totally within reach!

Here’s the math:

📊 $206B in stablecoins currently = ~6% dominance (DefiLlama)
💡 If stablecoins hit $1T, with same 6% dominance, that's total crypto market = ~$17T
With 40% BTC dominance (conservative assumption), that’s a $6.75T BTC market cap = $300k per BTC 🔥

Not so far-fetched, right?

[rektdiomedes @rektdiomedes]

Current stablecoin market caps:

$USDT - $137B
$USDC - $45B

Within 3-5 years I think both will be over $1 Trillion.

Indeed I think even we here on CT may be vastly underestimating just how huge stablecoins will get in the future.

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

@rektdiomedes @Rabby_io @phantom @DefiLlama @CoWSwap @vertex_protocol @HyperliquidX @beefyfinance @BungeeExchange @LunarCrush or anything for something for Sentiment analysis?
thanks for sharing btw!

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

https://t.co/APmuta3YGX

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

"To learn, wander. To achieve, focus."
-@JamesClear

I chose to wander in a focused area.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

SUMMARY OF FED CHAIR POWELL'S STATEMENT (12/18/24):

1. Inflation is "much closer" to 2% Fed target

2. Activity in the housing market has been weak

3. Wage growth in the United States has eased

4. Labor market is not a source of inflation pressures

5. Fed can be more cautious in reducing interest rates

6. Inflation expectations remains "well anchored"

The "Fed pivot" is taking another pause.

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

@rektdiomedes @_kaitoai Grabbing this Crypto x AI bull by the horns!

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

As @rektdiomedes said, yap early, or regret it 6 months from now.

@_kaitoai is connecting AI, attention and capital with Yaps.

Just aped using @rektdiomedes ref link and I'm accumulating Yap points now

Claim yours 👉 https://t.co/GAFZhdu6bQ

[rektdiomedes @rektdiomedes]

Alright screwed that up the first time...

@_kaitoai looking gud though...

Sign up with my reflink to help fuel my raw comb honey addiction bls thnk you fam 💪🍯
https://t.co/AeocJxdhxb

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

Now is the time to use all the shilling skills you learned on CT:
Shill Trump to your undecided friends

[Gabor Gurbacs @gaborgurbacs]

Everything changes, but nothing changes.
They all print, print and print.

[Tom McClellan @McClellanOsc]

Pretty big spread now between the FF target and the 2-year yield.

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

@welikejpegs Brilliant analysis!
Would love to run the same analysis when Bitcoin is trending up vs. ranging.
I bet rugs are going to be similar in frequency but expected returns may be better spray and pray.
Either way, using the criteria you mentioned will be +EV for sure!

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

wen $SOL ETF?

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

Spring Cleaning:
Now is the time to look at your portfolio and take accountability.

Anything that corrected too deeply and is still hanging near the lows must go. These will likely continue to bleed as long as #Bitcoin is going sideways.

You'll thank yourself in 3 to 6 months.

[Sapien @thecryptosapien]

Once #Bitcoin block reward is halved, a lot of barely profitable miners needing to constantly sell their rewards to survive will close shop.

Remaining miners will be in a stronger position.

As a result I believe that would diminish the daily sell pressure as stronger miners don't need to sell all their $BTC rewards to keep the lights on.