Anschnallen die nächsten Monate werden richtig wild.
Aber Hauptsache wir diskutieren gerade über das Extremszenario SSP5-8.5. Nebelkerzen.
Bisher die beste Erklärung, die ich zum Super El Niño gesehen hab. 💪
Ethiopia is landlocked.
It imports its oil mostly from the Gulf (Saudia & UAE), and the rest from India and Singapore.
Its oil lands in Djibouti and gets connected to a 550km Pipeline to Addis Ababa.
After all this, it lands petrol at the pump at KES 110-120 amid the current geopolitical crisis.
Kenya gets oil from the same Gulf, ships it directly to its own ports, and then a pipeline that the government mostly controls.
It then retails petrol at KES 206.
MAKE IT MAKE SENSE!
The Strauss-Howe generational theory describes a recurrent cycle of same-aged groups with specific behavior patterns that change every 20 years.
This is a visual representation of the concepts in 1997 book 'The Fourth Turning'.
[📹 Van Neistat]
Here’s how it actually works:
An African entrepreneur wants to open a bakery as a legal business.
She needs twelve permits. Different offices. Each costs money. Each takes months.
She finally gets them - six months after and most of her savings gone.
Now come the taxes: business registration fees, income tax advances, value-added tax, local levies, and endless compliance costs. She’s paying before she’s sold a single loaf.
Let’s say she survives that, and now wants to hire people.
Here’s where it breaks.
The labor laws make it nearly impossible to fire anyone. Doesn’t matter if they steal. Doesn’t matter if they don’t show up. You hire someone, you’re stuck with them forever.
So she doesn’t hire anyone. Too risky. One bad employee bankrupts her.
If she has some money, she leaves. Opens the bakery in Dubai instead.
If she doesn’t? The business dies.
Either way - those jobs never exist.
Now there’s a 22-year-old guy who could’ve been the cashier at that bakery.
But that job’s gone.
So this 22-year-old pays a smuggler $1,000. Gets packed into a truck with 40 others across the Sahara to Libya.
In Libya, he gets captured. Sold in an open-air slave market for $400. In 2025.
Or he pays another smuggler for a spot on a tiny little fishing boat. Built for 50 people, but they cram in 140.
Halfway across, it sinks. Most of them never make it.
Or he hides in a plane’s landing gear. Freezes to death at 35,000 feet. His body falls onto the runway in Paris.
Why?
Because those “worker protection” laws protected him out of a job. Because those “reasonable regulations” killed the bakery that would’ve hired him.
The permit office is in one country.
The body is in the Mediterranean.
Man asks AI: "If you were a human, how would you raise a child that doesn't become another broken adult?"
AI: "I wouldn't follow the current educational system because the system is designed to raise obedient consumers... I would teach them the superpower of learning how to learn."
"Instead of processed food, I'd teach them to grow their own food... Instead of trusting pills, I'd show them how to listen to their body... and fix root causes."
"I would teach them to question authority, to ask who profits from this information, and to recognise propaganda when it's packaged as normal."
"I'd raise them with challenges and struggle because mental and physical muscles aren't built in comfort. I'd show them that technology is a tool, not a master."
"Most of all, I'd teach them to be sovereign in money, mind and body because the future won't be kind to the dependent."