High-agency people seem to have this weird immunity to embarrassment.
Getting rejected? Not embarrassing, that’s just data collection.
Looking naive? Not embarrassing, that’s just information asymmetry you’re fixing.
Breaking minor social rules? Not embarrassing, most rules are just Schelling points anyway.
What would be embarrassing to them is not trying. That’s the thing they can’t live with.
Normal military cost pyramid:
Soldiers — cheapest.
Tanks — more expensive.
Navy — more expensive.
Air power — most expensive.
America's pyramid is inverted.
Air first. Soldiers last.
Against Iraq — it worked. Iraq was weak. It was a video game.
Iran is not a video game.
In a real war of attrition — you cannot keep replacing $50 million jets with more $50 million jets.
You run out of money.
You run out of planes.
You lose.
America built the perfect military for the wrong war.
My net worth peaked at $1.2 million.
None of it was real.
I don't mean that philosophically. I mean it was located on servers that have since been turned off.
I own eleven properties in the metaverse. Three in Decentraland. Four in The Sandbox. Two in Voxels. One in Otherside. And a beachfront villa in Horizon Worlds that I bought for $214,000 because Mark Zuckerberg called it "the next frontier."
The frontier closed last week.
It's a mobile app now.
Last year I mass DM'd 340 people the phrase "you don't understand how early we are." I have since stopped doing that. Not because I was wrong. Because most of them blocked me.
I got into metaverse real estate in November 2021. Everyone was buying. Someone paid $450,000 to be Snoop Dogg's neighbor. In a video game. With no legs.
The avatars didn't have legs.
I thought that was bullish. "The legs are coming," I told my Discord. "Legs are a roadmap item." Three hundred people reacted with rocket emojis.
I called myself a "digital land baron."
I put it in my Twitter bio.
I put it in my LinkedIn headline.
I said it on a podcast that had eleven listeners. Three of them were bots. The rest were my alts.
My virtual property has more square footage than my actual apartment.
My actual apartment has furniture.
Location, location, location.
My most valuable asset was a plot next to a virtual Gucci store. Gucci left in 2023. The store is still there. Nobody's in it. It's like a mall in Ohio but with worse graphics and no food court.
I held.
Diamond hands.
That's what we said. "Diamond hands." It means refusing to sell while your investment loses 94% of its value. We turned financial paralysis into a personality trait.
A guy in my Discord paid $2.4 million for a 618-parcel estate in Decentraland. Prime district. High foot traffic. I asked him what "foot traffic" meant when the platform had 38 daily active users.
He said I didn't understand the technology.
I didn't.
I still bought more.
We had a DAO. A decentralized autonomous organization. That means we voted on decisions. There were nine of us. Three never showed up. Two voted on everything without reading it. The other four were me and my alts.
We voted to "acquire strategic parcels."
The vote passed unanimously.
I voted four times.
My portfolio peaked at $1.2 million. I told everyone. I made a spreadsheet. I projected 40x returns by 2025. I made a pitch deck. The pitch deck had a slide that said "WE ARE BUILDING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY."
The slide had a rocket emoji.
That was my entire financial model.
In 2023 I bought a Bored Ape for $189,000.
It's worth $14,000 now.
I don't talk about the Ape.
I still use it as my profile picture. People ask me about it. I say "I'm long-term bullish." Long-term bullish means I can't sell it without crying in a Panera.
My mom asked me what a Bored Ape was.
I said "digital art on the blockchain."
She asked why it cost more than her car.
I said "you don't understand Web3."
She said "I understand you live in a studio apartment."
She's not in my Discord.
Justin Bieber bought one for $1.3 million.
It's worth about $90,000 now.
I felt better about mine after I heard that.
That's community.
WAGMI. We're All Gonna Make It. We said that every day. In the group chat. While the floor dropped. While the volume dried up. While 95% of all NFT collections went to zero.
We're all gonna make it.
None of us made it.
But we said it with conviction and a laser-eye profile picture. That counts for something.
It doesn't.
But we said it did. That's decentralized consensus.
Meta spent $84 billion on the metaverse.
I need to say that again.
$84 billion.
More than the GDP of Luxembourg. More than the GDP of Iceland, Luxembourg, and Malta combined. They spent it on a platform where the avatars had no legs, the graphics looked like a 2006 Wii game, and the peak user count was lower than the lunch rush at a Chipotle in Des Moines.
They just pulled Horizon Worlds from VR headsets.
It lives on as a mobile app.
My beachfront villa is now a mobile app.
Location, location, location.
Zuckerberg renamed the entire company for this. Facebook became Meta. A $900 billion company changed its legal name because the CEO watched Ready Player One and said "I want that."
Reality Labs lost $10 billion in 2021. $14 billion in 2022. $16 billion in 2023. $18 billion in 2024. $19 billion in 2025.
That's not a strategy. That's a speedrun.
They laid off 1,500 Reality Labs employees this year. Shut down three VR studios. Killed Supernatural. Put the entire VR social vision in a casket and said "we're pivoting to AI and wearables."
The pivot took four years and $84 billion.
I pivoted too.
I'm an AI real estate investor now.
I bought a virtual plot in an AI-generated world that doesn't exist yet. The founder said it was "the intersection of spatial computing and large language models."
I don't know what that means.
I gave him $40,000.
He has a whitepaper. It's 47 pages. I read the title and the tokenomics section. The tokenomics section is a pie chart. I love pie charts. They make everything look like a plan.
The project has a roadmap. Q1: "Build community." Q2: "Launch beta." Q3: "Scale ecosystem." Q4 is blank.
Q4 is always blank.
That's where the exit scam goes.
My accountant asked me to value my metaverse portfolio for tax purposes.
I said $1.2 million.
He said "current market value."
I said $6,400.
He stared at me for eleven seconds.
I know because I counted.
He asked if I had any other investments.
I showed him my NFTs.
He stared for longer.
I told him they were "cultural artifacts with long-term provenance."
He asked if I'd considered a 401k.
I told him a 401k was "legacy finance."
He told me to leave his office.
The metaverse is dead.
I don't accept that.
I am a digital land baron. I own eleven properties across four platforms. I have a beachfront villa in a mobile app, a plot next to an empty Gucci store, and a cartoon monkey that cost me more than my actual car.
Location, location, location.
The location is nowhere.
But I'm early.
I'm always early.
That's the same as being wrong except you get to say it with confidence.
Prime Minister of the Netherlands handed over the government and left on his bicycle, but every Nigerian man needs a car to boost his confidence😂😂
I can't promise all of you cars if I become President but you will have good roads and infrastructure!
This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why…
Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance.
Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London.
This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance.
Control insurance, control trade.
And London doesn’t just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd’s and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains.
You can’t participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance.
Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation.
Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can’t even price it.
The question everyone should be asking: why?
Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine?
To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships.
The answer: better intelligence.
It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world’s maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd’s itself.
I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd’s.
Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at.
Here’s the problem: the majority of MI6’s intel doesn’t come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion’s share of intel.
So if Lloyd’s pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6’s best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled?
All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing.
And we know there has been serious anger in Washington over the UK’s decision to sell Diego Garcia, home to America’s most strategically important base in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius.
It is not a huge leap to conclude that the submarine cables linking Langley to London have gone dark, or at minimum have been significantly throttled.
What this means for UK national security is a question for the Brits. But what it means for EVERY company globally that’s insured through the London market has massive implications for the entire financial system.
Because most large insurers worldwide don’t do independent intelligence work. They index off Lloyd’s rates.
If you’re insuring a skyscraper in Tokyo, a semiconductor fab in Taiwan, or a port in Argentina you get a Lloyd’s quote, then shop that price around.
Other insurers see Lloyd’s number and assume the diligence was done. They price accordingly.
This means if London is suddenly flying blind it’s not just Lloyd’s policyholders at risk. It’s the entire global reinsurance chain.
The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn’t the crisis. It’s the canary.
If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID.
Watch Lloyd’s. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That’s where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks.
CC @BillAckman
Oman’s foreign minister says Iran agreed to “zero enriched uranium stockpiling.”
Within hours, Israel and the USA attacked them.
It was never about peace or uranium but about acting out Netanyahu's biggest bloodthirsty fantasy.
We were in the car after a long day, both of us exhausted. He was on the phone with a friend through the speakers, and they were talking about life, work, stress… all of it.
At one point his friend joked, “Man, marriage must be tiring.”
Without even thinking, he said, “Nah. Marriage isn’t tiring. Life is tiring. My wife is the part that makes it worth it.”
I froze in the passenger seat.
He kept driving like he didn’t just shift my entire world with one sentence.
Later that night I asked him if he really meant it.
He looked at me confused and said,
“Of course. You’re not my responsibility. You’re my reward.”
And I swear, in a world where people talk about marriage like it’s a burden…
He talks about it like he won the lottery.
And that’s all the reassurance I’ll ever need.
1. Capitalism has done something very clever to warfare for America. It has removed the American human and by extension the European human’s proximity to death.
2. War used to mean your sons drafted, your cities rationed, your factories converted, your streets filled with absence. It demanded a shared national discomfort. You felt it in your body, in your home, in your daily choices.
3. Now it is a quick decision between Marco, Bibi and the Donald. It’s all a video game. It is a drone operated from a chair thousands of miles away.
4. For Americans, war now arrives as footage. A night-vision clip. No amputees at the bus stop. The violence isnt because it’s virtual. The distance turns a great deal of human suffering into iranian dancing on the street videos.
5. This distance produces a particular kind of moral insulation. War is watched more than it is lived. It is narrated through the language of precision, deterrence and stability, and visually through grainy aerial clips and digital maps. The operator sits in a climate controlled room, the voter drives home from work, the markets close for the day.
6. Nothing in the physical environment suggests that a society is in the middle of organised killing. The experience resembles a video game and this makes the violence is fictional, remote and consequence free for those authorising it.
7. But the human cost has not disappeared. It has moved, with remarkable consistency, to the Global South. There, war is not a broadcast.
8. People die in thousands over night. Innocent people. But people, babies and young girls don’t die as humans. They die as statistics or as technical langauge. Eg. collateral damage, civilian casualties etc.
9. The task of war for the American is to first takeway their humanity. No information that creates sympathy. Rather feel good messaging. We liberated Iran, we liberated Iraq; we liberated Libya and Afghanistan.
10. We do it because we as Americans are inherently good. We do it for humanity.
1. War is a video game for the West. A holocaust for the global poor. But who counts black and brown deaths?
End the killings!
Shalom.
Twenty years ago we invaded Iraq. The war killed many innocent Iraqis and Americans. It destroyed the oldest Christian populations in the world. It cost over $1 trillion, and turned Iraq into a satellite of Iran. It was an unforced disaster, and I pray that we learn its lessons.
Idk who needs to hear this (apparently all of twitter) but OpenAI did not just magically get the DoD to agree to the terms Anthropic was asking for.
Sam is blowing smoke up your ass to distract from the fact OpenAI just took the terms Anthropic considered so egregious, it warranted jeopardizing an enormous part of their business.
The DoD does not just break off a massive contract to accept the same demands 5 minutes later from someone else. Until explicitly indicated otherwise, the only logical conclusion here is that OpenAI swooped in and unscrupulously stooped lower than Anthropic was willing to go for the money.
Assume all OpenAI data will now be used for what Anthropic deemed “mass domestic surveillance of Americans”. Plan and prompt accordingly.
🚨 I just learned about a concept, I can't stop thinking about.
The Four Burner Theory.
It destroyed Elon Musk's first marriage.
It explains why Bezos is jacked but divorced.
And why Zuckerberg has no real friends.
Once you understand it, your life will never be same:🧵