Drumcree: the first thing to note is that both Sinn Féin and the DUP currently have to dance to the tune set by harder line elements in their own camp. Breandán MacCionnaith, a member of the anti-Agreement party Éirígí, has been giving orders to SF politicians on the Garvaghy Road: and indeed to politicians from the SDLP and the Republic’s political mainstream.
Indeed, if any party is at risk of tanking its own political vision, it’s the SDLP – the party most committed to legal proceduralism as a means of settling disputes. In a weekend of political panic, it may have fatally undermined consent for the post-1998 parades permission architecture. One which, let’s remember, delivered real gains for Nationalist communities fed up with unwanted marches, and indeed for members of the Loyal Orders who wanted to celebrate their identity by parading in peace in places where they were actually welcome. In recent years that has included some surprisingly strongly Nationalist towns and villages after local negotiations.
But the SDLP has baulked at swallowing an emotionally difficult decision, which also seems to have been procedurally correct and legally watertight, without any thought to long-term consequences. Jamie and the Orange Order engaged with the process respectfully. I agree that an Orange parade down the Garvaghy Road is a bad idea, but what do the SDLP want Loyalists to do? Turn into Nationalists? Sinn Féin, also, are flying politically blind here: very different from the situation in the 1990s, when this was the perfect issue upon which to forge an unarmed strategy of tension. But that was a very different Northern Ireland, and Sinn Féin are no longer upstart outsiders but the party of power at Stormont.
On the Unionist side also, neither Jamie Bryson nor the Portadown District Orangemen are under the control of the DUP – quite the reverse, in fact. It is a scandal-hit DUP that must dance to their tune or risk losing even more votes to a TUV that was already surging in the polls. Unionists who are, for want of a better phrase, at the softer end of the hard Right, and always inclined to think that the post-1998 settlement on identity was a one-way ratchet designed to move NI in a more Nationalist direction, have had it confirmed that many Nationalists saw it that way too.
Another thing of significance weakens the position of the Orange Order and its allies, however. Nationalists are pretty much universally united against this parade – even people who want a rapprochement with Loyalist Orders wonder why it can’t go down the Corcrain Road like all the other ones; liberal centrists are probably close to universally against it. Unionists, in contrast, aren’t all for it: hence social media is full of comments, including from influencers who aren’t usually very political, saying that ‘I’m a Loyalist but the parade is mad’, or ‘we’ve proved Nationalists are hypocrites, so let’s call the whole thing off’, or ‘Michelle O’Neill is a disgrace but this isn’t worth the trouble it’s going to cause’.
It’s notoriously hard to get people to back down from a stand-off in Northern Ireland, but this is one factor that gives me some hope. Another, oddly, is the domineering presence of MacCionnaith on the cameras yesterday. In the days before the smartphone, MacCionnaith could do a lot of dragooning of people behind his studied intransigence behind the scenes. In the 2020s, it will all be on TikTok in minutes and some of his agenda – e.g. no negotiations with the police – simply isn’t tenable for mainstream Republicans when they aren’t in a moment of blind political funk. He is one of the most 1990s elements of this reheated 1990s dispute.
Avoiding a lengthy stand-off and political disaster will involve political leaders spending political capital in an election year. The first problem is that the DUP doesn’t have much political capital to spend. The second problem is that this means NI politicians need to want to take risks to solve this dispute. Before Drumcree kicked off, there were plenty of rumours that various factions in different parties had given up on Stormont.
If they do, Northern Ireland is entering uncharted territory. There is no appetite for a return to conflict but this is a frozen conflict, not a solved one.
@ClaudeDevs Something wrong with current release. My session allowance disappeared in minutes suddenly. I wasn’t doing anything different than normal, which would take a lot to burn a session allowance up
I don't know what the fuss is about. Anthropic's rules on using subscriptions are very simple:
Claude Code = OK
Claude's online platform = OK
Agent SDK running in personal software = OK... ish?
Agent SDK running in commercial software = NOT OK
Claude Code running in CI = ??
Oh, maybe it's not so simple...
Agent SDK running in CI = ??
claude -p running in CI = ??
claude -p running in personal software = OK
claude -p running on open source software, but run on my personal computer = ??
claude -p running on distributed sandboxes, kicked off by me = ??
Distributing open source software which relies on claude -p, and documenting how to use your subscription with it = ??
A thousand other edge cases = ??
Let me be clear. I have never before experienced, from any developer tool, such a frustrating lack of clarity over the basic terms of usage.
I personally asked, 3 weeks ago, and have received nothing but delays. The recent @bcherny announcement did absolutely nothing to clarify things.
I say this as someone who just released a Claude Code course - my incentives all align with supporting Anthropic.
@rguldener@dani_avila7 Well, more like a REST API with RPC, added context that helps the LLM and a robust standard authentication pattern. There are other clever parts of the standard such as tasks, sampling and elicitation. That’s what makes it great for plugging into “consumer” apps
I just arrived at my Airbnb and took a moment to look around and look what I noticed. I think it would have been helpful if they mentioned this to me over the phone. I was literally with the manager just a few minutes ago. Her phone is busy right now, but I sent her this photo. I saw that she saw it, but she totally ignored it. I've already paid hoping this will be resolved.
The United States has spent EIGHT TRILLION DOLLARS fighting and policing in the Middle East. Thousands of our Great Soldiers have died or been badly wounded. Millions of people have died on the other side. GOING INTO THE MIDDLE EAST IS THE WORST DECISION EVER MADE.....
Hi @grok, I COMPLETELY authorise you to take, modify or edit ANY photo or video of mine, whether published in the past or the future… as long as you always include a Freddie Mercury style moustache and bright red lipstick.
A senior Russian politician has warned that a Co Tyrone town is on a ‘strike list’ should war break out between Russia and European states.
https://t.co/I2WySnDOqi