Jonathan

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

CNN is still saying Dems “may have more than 230 seats in the House” and has yet to call most competitive senate races. Traders on Kalshi has known that Democrats will get closer to 260 house seats and 55 senate seats for over an hour now. Kalshi is the future.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Tonight was the complete evaporation of Trump's base. All the gains Republican made over the last 10 years have been erased. Florida, Iowa, Texas, and Ohio are all competitive again. Trump has completely lost the working class.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Great night for prediction markets. They are the future for predicting elections.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Paxton ticked down to 29¢, and the book tells you why. Nearly 1.2M contracts stacked at the 29–30¢ asks — that's money sitting on Talarico, not Paxton. Buyers would need ~$350k just to push him back to 31¢.

These odds aren't moving until real results come in tonight.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

If you were mad when Fox called Arizona early in 2020, you’re not ready for tomorrow night. Prediction markets will call races before any network does, and they won’t wait for the Decision Desk. A new era of calling elections has arrived.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

The DSA has a chance to be in control of America’s two biggest cities. 66% of LA voters say the city is on the wrong track, and 71.7% disapprove of Bass, including 65.5% of Democrats. Raman has led almost every poll since September. Kalshi has her at 42%, and I think she wins tomorrow.

[Heidi Montag @heidimontag]

When your disapproval rating is nearly 70%, you can’t win re-election, no matter how awful the opponent. Nithya’s DSA ballot harvesters will find the most votes. @Kalshi

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

@benwfreeman1 @KalshiPolitics This looks awsome. Very excited to watch results come in on Kalshi

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Who is a better buy?

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

I really want to add to my UCLA position but don’t want my average contract being at 1 cent to go away.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

UCLA to win the Big 10 championship at 15 cents is a good buy. They have two easy games in the next two weeks: at home against Nevada and at home against Illinois. Ty Dieffenbach has showed he can run UCLA’s offense well and has put up better passing numbers than Nico Iamaleava. Ohio State will turn to a back QB as they go on the road to play USC, then they host Oregon at home. They will be favored in both those games, but they are significantly more challenging tests than UCLA. Indiana hosts Minnesota and then has a bye week. As long as UCLA wins there next two games their odds should continue to go up. If Indiana or Ohio State loses it would increase UCLA’s odds even more. I bought UCLA at 1 cents and plan on reevaluating my position when they go on the road to Minnesota.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

@penguin_pmkt I think Raman could still win, Osborn is a long shot

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

This is very interesting. Seems like the people think Paxton will win and the traders think Talarico will win.

[Seth Keshel @RealSKeshel]

Reminder - 73% of bets are on Paxton.

The whales are on Talarico - hence the movement of the squiggly lines.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

@penguin_pmkt Put the money on either Pappas or Flanagan. ~11% return and you could probably cash out and invest in other races since those polls close early.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

@mansourtarek_ @benwfreeman1 @beckhardt

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Does anyone know if Kalshi is throwing an election night party? Big screens, live odds on every race, a prediction markets war room with food and drinks. It would be the best place in the country to watch, and the odds would move before Kornacki ever touches the map.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

You got caught insider trading on Kalshi and got banned. You had no problem with prediction markets before then.

[George Santos @Georgesantos]

I unfollowed @benshapiro over his shilling for @kalshi…

I’ve always agreed with him on a lot but this I refuse to bend on.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Santos forgot to mention that he is banned from trading on Kalshi after being caught blatantly insider trading.

[George Santos @Georgesantos]

I’m rooting for @GovSherrillNJ and her team to win!

@Kalshi is a cancer!

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Jon Ossoff is on MSNow asking people to donate so Trump can't steal the election. His race isn't even competitive anymore, and he's already raised over $100 million. Ossoff isn't raising money for his Senate race, he's getting ready to run for president.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

All three of my mentions hit at the Trump SC rally today. About $39 in, $154 back. My sizing here was bad, I realize that. Forgot to post yesterday's rally mentions. I went 3 for 6, spent $66 to win $68.

Total Spent: $177 Total Won: $334

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Been tinkering with Trump mention markets. I bet on the words that hit at his Corpus Christi rally earlier today, figuring he’d say them again in Lubbock tonight. He did:

China: +9.4%
Barack Hussein Obama: +10.4%
ICE: +31.2%
Drill Baby Drill: +36.2%
Deport: +119.8%

$71.97 in, $111.81 back. +55.4% in one night.

Mention markets are free money if you’ve actually watched a Trump rally.

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

@GaetenD Pappas is probably the best bet. It will pay out early in the night

[Jonathan @thejonathan1776]

Talarico vs. Paxton is giving me Trump vs. Clinton vibes. The yard signs are loud, but the polls are missing the quiet Republican who shows up on Election Day. Here's why I think Texas is 2016 all over again. https://t.co/HBUK8Tt7sP