Stephen Koukoulas

Federal Treasury, Head of Global Strategy TD London, Advisor to a PM, punter. Speaker.
MD Market Economics.

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

My 2026 forecasts:
GDP H1 lifts to 2.5%; sub 2.0% in H2
Unemployment rate to 5%
Inflation eases 2.0 to 2.25%
Wages growth soggy at 3%
RBA cuts to 3.10%
10 yr bonds 4.00%
AUD lifts to 75 c
House prices – no change, downside risks
ASX200 – below 8,000
https://t.co/5pj9UvxI9Q

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

@tonytardio Pretty much so - early days, but the results are close to text book perfect

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

I note - yet again - that a slower economy, including for housing, is part of the economic policy to get inflation back to target.
The hand-wringing about the fall in lending (whihc by the way can simply mean less turnover as people postpne decisions to move) is part of that adjustment.
ICYMI

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Lending for housing free-falls; non-residential booms
https://t.co/8zxAREaYbl

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

ICYMI
The sober take on the lending data

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Lending for housing free-falls; non-residential booms
https://t.co/8zxAREaYbl

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Too_Morrow doesn't realise that the data he cites says nothing about gettng "more people into the market".
James - there were 26,000 first home buyers in the last 3 months and over 110,000 in the past 12 months.
Economics & James - feeding caviar to pigs rings a bell

[James Morrow @pwafork]

New home loans down 15 per cent in the last quarter which is weird because Jim said torching property values would get more people into the market.

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Lending for housing free-falls; non-residential booms
https://t.co/8zxAREaYbl

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

ICYMI
RBA looks like it's fallen for a perfect reverse ferret.
Triggering a recession with tens of thousands of extra unemployed, business failures & grief when inflation pressures were ALL tilted lower is misguided.
Now oil is US$90; heading to US$70 which will make inflation plummet.
Annual inflation is set to drop to 1-2% next year on these trends

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Sentimental as anything: The dips are getting bigger.
The economic gloom that is obvious to just about everyone outside the RBA was further compounded with the NAB business & Westpac consumer data.
https://t.co/4FLoyRHhXN

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Some folk think we don't need to regulate AI when this sort of stuff is happening.
https://t.co/TlZ3UcxpZs

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

@Scutty Ha - not sure being fair and decent is a crime

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

ICYMI
Horrible data on business confidence and consumer sentiment.
Both mired at recessionary levels

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Sentimental as anything: The dips are getting bigger.
The economic gloom that is obvious to just about everyone outside the RBA was further compounded with the NAB business & Westpac consumer data.
https://t.co/4FLoyRHhXN

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Sentimental as anything: The dips are getting bigger.
The economic gloom that is obvious to just about everyone outside the RBA was further compounded with the NAB business & Westpac consumer data.
https://t.co/4FLoyRHhXN

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Fun Facts:
Since the Budget, the ASX200 is up 5%

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

@F1del14 Not sure you listened to the video

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

ICYMI
Policy makers have a harder job than business people - business people have never managed a $1.5 trillion budget

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Public Policy Making vs Business Management.
A discussion aimed at the business folk & others who say that because a policy maker (politician) has never worked in a business, they often make bad decisions.
“What would they know?” is the common retort.
https://t.co/7LGoPKjwRq

[Matt Jones @mttjon]

Interesting comment on this FT story

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Public Policy Making vs Business Management.
A discussion aimed at the business folk & others who say that because a policy maker (politician) has never worked in a business, they often make bad decisions.
“What would they know?” is the common retort.
https://t.co/7LGoPKjwRq

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

@LouiChristopher @SQMResearch Well done Louis! Best of luck for the next 20

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

The next 5 days:
NAB business survey; will business conditions keep falling off a cliff?
Consumer sentiment – is it still deeply pessimistic?
Plus the fall in housing finance especially investor loans.
By Friday we’ll have more facts on the economic malaise the RBA is hell bent on achieving.
Speaking of which, there are a few RBA Board member speeches this week.
https://t.co/DjKtOy7WnZ

[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk]

Fab chart
And to think - some folk reckon the 2000 tax changes in Australia drove our house prices.
Misguided at best

[Mark 🇦🇺 @Mark_Graph]

Chart for today - residential house price growth - selected nations