SQM Research

SQM Research is an investment data and analytics service provider which specialises in providing data, ratings and insights on all asset classes.

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 31 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 43.3% from 1,396 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 42.8% from 1,171 auctions.

Same week, last year - 56.3% from 1,610 auctions.

This week sees 494 auctions for Melbourne (King's Birthday Long Wkd).
https://t.co/18gjXSyYpv

#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 31 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 34.4% from 1,372 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 36.5% from 1,123 auctions.

Same week, last year - 49.5% from 1,477 auctions.

This week sees 494 auctions for Sydney (King's Birthday long Wkd).
https://t.co/L9ckhxm2OB
#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Auction clearance rates from @sqmresearch are increasingly being quoted as the authoritative read on what's really happening on the ground.

Reporting on housing prices always involves a trade-off. Housing isn't a standardised asset class, so you're constantly balancing timeliness against accuracy.

Preliminary clearance rates are highly timely — but they capture only part of the market. The late-reported results and withdrawn auctions that come in over the following days consistently move the number, and almost always lower.

Final clearance rates take a little longer. But they tell you what actually happened - which, in the current market is critically important to get right.

https://t.co/7GLRIRtypo

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 24 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 42.8% from 1,171 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 45.3% from 1,038 auctions.

Same week, last year - 56.4% from 1,333 auctions.

This week sees 1,389 auctions for Melbourne.
https://t.co/pxyGn1N45G

#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 24 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 36.5% from 1,123 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 31.1% from 881 auctions.

Same week, last year - 50.2% from 1,061 auctions.

This week sees 1,360 auctions for Sydney.
https://t.co/kroNieeeMe

#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 17 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 45.3% from 1,038 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 42.7% from 1,209 auctions.

Same week, last year - 57.2% from 999 auctions.

This week sees 1,166 auctions for Melbourne.
https://t.co/2bB8sXtrsP
#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 17 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 31.1% from 881 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 36.9% from 1,067 auctions.

Same week, last year - 48.0% from 756 auctions.

This week sees 1,113 auctions for Sydney.
https://t.co/5muc3SKzRB
#housingmarket

[Pete Wargent @PeteWargent]

Asking prices for houses in Sydney -3.3pc past 3 months

(SQM)

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Ok, here is a view you might find of interest:

Let's assume the Australian housing market is indeed adjusting to the new property tax changes.

Let's assume it is indeed investors showing less interest in the market.

Now could one 'model' this change of interest?

I think you can.

It can be modelled based on one more assumption - investors are rational and will only be interested in buying into the market once again if the acquisition rental yield rises to a point where it completely compensates them for the loss in the tax benefits.

However, this assumption forgets there may be a transition of renters turning themselves into FHBs.

And it also forgets we are going into these tax changes with a rental shortage, driven in large part by surging population growth.

It also assumes everything else is equal, such as stable interest rates. But they are not stable and one can convincingly argue the housing market is correcting now due to the recent rises in the cash rate.

However, if you were to just keep everything else equal for one moment, I estimate investors will demand acquisition rental yields rise between 0.5% to 1.5% for houses and 0.2% to 0.9% for units (variation reflects different assumptions on tax, growth and holding period - and note the yield change on units wouldn't need to be as high, as units tend not to deliver as much capital growth as houses, which makes the new CGT regime less punitive on them).

Now if you are still with me and in broad agreement with my assumptions and caveats, having yields rise means prices come down and/or rents go up. Most likely a bit of both.

Here is a table (below) I have created that models this out based on proportional changes. E.g. rents and prices equally adjust; more impact on housing prices than rents etc.

One more assumption - this happens over a two-to-three-year period for the rent-led component, and possibly longer if FHB substitution does part of the work.

And I think the adjustment will be close to evenly split between prices and rents.

And the yield gap between houses and units will narrow materially - currently around 1.1%, on my central estimate compressing to around 0.65%. That actually runs against the usual presentation of units as the yield play. In this package they come out structurally more robust than houses, because most of the hit is the CGT change, and units' lower historical capital growth makes that change less punitive.

I'll be tracking SQM's asking-rent series through 2026 to see which path the market takes. If it holds at +7% or accelerates, the rent-led adjustment is dominant. If it cools meaningfully, FHB substitution is doing more of the work and the price leg becomes more important.

Happy to hear your views.

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Auction clearance rates fall back to 2020 lockdown levels. But this time round there isn't any stimulus in sight...
https://t.co/ep2BNhsuWX

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 10 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 36.9% from 1,067 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 37.3% from 1,133 auctions.

Same week, last year - 46.1% from 890 auctions.

This week sees 869 auctions for Sydney.
https://t.co/txejDmqWZk
#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 10 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 42.7% from 1,209 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 45.5% from 1,335 auctions.

Same week, last year - 55.2% from 898 auctions.

This week sees 1,033 auctions for Melbourne.
https://t.co/rGL9tnx8Yc
#housingmarket

[SQM Research @SQMResearch]

RT @LouiChristopher: @SQMResearch has updated our rental vacancy rates for April and our advertised rents through to today.
Vacancy rates…

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 3 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 45.5% from 1,335 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 39% from 323 auctions (Anzac Day Wkd).

Same week, last year - 54.4% from 828 auctions.

This week sees 1,129 auctions for Melbourne.
https://t.co/ViqOpHWxQm
#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 3 May, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 37.3% from 1,133 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 28.5% from 405 auctions (Anzac Day Wkd).

Same week, last year - 44.2% from 833 auctions.

This week sees 1,057 auctions for Sydney.
https://t.co/8SUBT6vh5j
#housingmarket

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

On our revised forecasts (issued March 2026), we are now down to two scenarios.
If the cash rate peaks at this point, we are looking at price changes at the bottom end of our range for our base case scenario.

That means I am now expecting Sydney housing prices to fall towards 6%. Melbourne housing prices are now expected to fall towards 4%.

The other cities are now expected to record signs of slowing but I am still expecting prices to be up for the year for these cities given their income exposure to rising commodity, precious metals and energy prices.

Now in truth, the probabilities have increased that Scenario 2 is the path. Afterall, it will only take one more rate rise to have it in play. That would mean deeper falls this year in Sydney and Melbourne and a larger slowdown elsewhere.

Note, these forecasts do not take into account property tax changes. And they are not peak to trough expectations. Just changes for the Calendar year 2026.

There is still of course a possibility the RBA may have to cut at some point this year. Say for example we have a recession and/or an equities crash. Even if they did, it's now unlikely our forecasts would hit their mark under Scenario 3

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Melbourne final auction results:
Week ending 19 April, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 43.7% from 1,362 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 41.0% from 953 auctions.

Same week, last year - 46.5% from 241 auctions.

This week sees 320 auctions for Melbourne (Anzac Day).
https://t.co/BPBCl5EWcv

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 19 April, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 37.9% from 1,247 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 37.3% from 915 auctions.

Same week, last year - 43.5% from 577 auctions.

This week sees 398 auctions for Sydney (Anzac Day Long wkd).
https://t.co/8SUBT6vOUR

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

I've had more main stream media interest of late in our final clearance rates. Indeed, a major media outlet wants them today the moment they are released at 3.42pm.

While our clearance rates are not as timely as the Saturday preliminaries, they are absolutely complete with no missing auctions. That means no revisions are required. You are getting full accuracy without fear or favour.

I have many agents supporting what we do here. They are sick of having a juiced up benchmark that is not realistic compared with their own results.

By way of background, between 2000 and 2006 I used to run the APM/Domain auction collections team that would report straight into the Sun Herald, SMH and The Age at the time. So I can assure you there is real expertise behind our numbers and we take our reporting very seriously indeed.

So, the below chart you will see I have marked with the bottoms in red and the highs in green.
The 2022 clearance rate bottom saw Sydney asking prices fall by about 5% from peak to trough, albeit the downturn only lasted a few months. We are now below those 2022 levels. So the notion of housing prices falling by 6% in Sydney this year is an increasingly high probability.

There are many events over the near term that could deteriorate the present situation. You have the March CPI numbers coming out on the 29th. The RBA meeting on the 4-5th of May. And the next Budget night is on the 12th with property tax changes in the air.

[Louis Christopher @LouiChristopher]

Sydney final auction results:
Week ending 12 April, 2026
@SQMResearch

The final clearance rate was 37.3% from 915 scheduled auctions.

Preceding week - 33.2% from 647 auctions.

Same week, last year - 48.1% from 1,771 auctions.

This week sees 1,238 auctions for Sydney.
https://t.co/3969L42Hiy
#housingmarket