John Spitzer

Former Divisional Director FX at Macquarie a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. Oz property halves. ASX goes to 1500.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

Measured move to 7,600 when it breaks, just above the bottom trend line.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

That’s an impressive head and shoulders on a massive, passive, super(annuation) bubble.

With negative gearing and cgt end to smash housing and an insane banking bubble entirely geared to property.

Minsky effect will be huge. And we likely gonna have fuel shortages.

ASX 1500.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@huntersnintendo @DaveTaylorNews It’s not helpful to even report the non per capita result.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@DaveTaylorNews It fell 0.1%
Is that 8 from 13 negative quarters?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@Scutty Is that 8 from 13 quarters negative now?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

The downward trend cannot be reversed without major damage under the best scenarios.

Isn’t the USA considered the most adept at handling the Strait closure aside from China?

Is this the greatest mispricing of assets in history? @AvidCommentator

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@BikoKonstantin1 AMP LOL

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@AJLucantonio @DCarlin21 I’m sick in the stomach over Ethan strange. Not that I even knew he was a junior before. So good.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@elonmusk Dude why can’t my aircon stay on recycle mode in auto? It let a heap of bushfire smoke in today and grok tells me the car turns it off itself.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

Not much talk about the still USD2.5 trillion dollar valuation of crapto.

Bitcoin sinking under the surface

Heavy losses against rates around 4% last 2.5 years..

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@bluewolfpack1 How did the market end green instead of down 20%?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

The stats will show their numbers going up.
They make up a small % of the market however.
So it’s a good result all round.

[James Morrow @pwafork]

@disco___cat Where are all the first home buyers? Or have we realised yet that making everyone poorer won’t get anyone a house?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@AvidCommentator I didn’t know that.
Interesting. I’m all for home ownership. For families anyway. But anything less than 10% is crazy.

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@LeagueScenePod It should have been a sin bin on precedent

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@CashdoesntLIE I haven’t followed closely but with their property portfolios I think they’d be all for changing back

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

CGT changes watered down this week?

[Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺 @AvidCommentator]

Auction results - Sold To Listed
- Sydney 27.5% (27.5% last weekend)
- Melbourne 38.3% (39.4%)

Sydney unchanged from the all time lows of last week, based on my data set that goes back to 2018 (ex-public holidays and Xmas season).

Another very high 45.5% auctions unreported.

This could theoretically lead to somewhat of a boost in the final SQM results on Tuesday, but that is far from certain.

Melbourne's bounce falters, seeing it drop back toward its recent lows.

Last week saw a significant bounce in the final SQM figures for Sydney vs what was seen in my results, while Melbourne interestingly saw the opposite.

Either way, both markets remain in a zone of extreme weakness not seen since the impact of the pandemic.

With the changes to property investor tax concessions to continue to feed into the market, further weakness appears likely.

Methodology noted in graphic below.
#AvidAuctions

[BowTiedStocks @bowtiedstocks]

If Aussie resi propadee isn’t in a bubble then we should have nothing to worry about

Because the prices would be underpinned by fundamentals such as rental yield and the falls would be limited

But judging by the comments I’m getting to my takes querying propadee bullishness, it seems like people are quite fearful all of a sudden

Don’t worry people - if we have the fundamentals then there is absolutely nothing to fear!! 😂

I’m in New Zealand right now and their prices have fallen 20-30% I believe - life goes on 👍

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@LeagueScenePod @M_Shaw1 Rushed one on Burton.
Was it right?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@BikoKonstantin1 Why?

[John Spitzer @ASX1500]

@MikeBromley15 @charles_haig01 @michaelsnape I used to say 20.
Yesterday I said 15 but even that is game over.
Ten off and you ain’t coming back plus getting suspended or fined is fair and best for fans