Greg Canavan

Editorial Director at Fat Tail IR. Managing the Permanent Capital Portfolio. Pay the right price and take adv of investor psychology = 💰

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

“If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.”

Adam Smith - The Money Game

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Oil algos are so dumb, they see Trump post Iran and peace in the same post and immediately sell oil without realizing there’s nothing.

[William Green @WilliamGreen72]

"We are definitely at a moment where there’s more greed than there is fear.” —David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, speaking at the Economic Club of New York

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

CENTCOM says U.S. forces carried out self-defense strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island, while missiles launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain failed to reach their targets.

[Dhaval Joshi @DhavalVJoshi]

This time, the bubble is not in chipmakers' valuations, the bubble is in chipmakers' PROFIT MARGINS. Once those unsustainable profit margins normalize, as they eventually must, WATCH OUT!

[Matt Warder @mfwarder]

Wow Cerrejon down…BOOLISH thermal #coal bois! #CoalTwitter

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

@puppyeh1 Does Warren know about this?

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

Tasnim News Agency - affiliated with the IRGC - reports that #Iran's negotiating team is suspending the exchange of texts and messages with the US through mediator Pakistan, citing ongoing Israeli military operations in #Lebanon.

Tehran's stated ground is that Lebanon was a precondition for any ceasefire arrangement, and that arrangement has now been violated. Iranian negotiators say talks will not resume until Israeli operations Lebanon stop and Israeli forces withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory.

The announcement also carries a threat: full closure of the Strait of Hormuz - after some incremental ease of transit over the past couple of weeks - and "activation of the Bab al-Mandab front" as punitive measures against Israel and its allies.

This comes days after reports of a tentative US-Iran MOU to extend the ceasefire 60 days and launch nuclear talks. That was the cautious optimism of last week, but this is what followed it.

What this suggests is that the U.S. - and likely Israel - have consistently underestimated how structurally central Lebanon is to Tehran's position. The assumption appears to have been that enough pressure on Iran would render its Lebanon commitments rhetorical. That calculation looks wrong.

Lebanon matters to Iran both strategically and ideologically, and the pressure from the Islamic Republic's own support base to act - not just signal - on Lebanon has been building. Accepting a deal while Israel continues operations there would carry serious domestic costs. That's not a detail Tehran can paper over.

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

Maybe if you just shut it and do more negotiating and less posting, there would be less chirping!

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

Trump:

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

From @BGottliebsen article today...straya...

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

@scrapegoat87 @wally_waldo83 Also, permanent capital doesn’t mean you buy a company and hold it permanently. It’s a mindset for thinking and compounding long term and not chasing short term fads and gains.

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

More to the point, every time you realise gains CGT hurts the compounding process. Aussie market is highly cyclical. Not like you can buy stocks for 10-20 years and forget. You need to sell and realise gains. Massive disadvantage for young investors.

[christopher joye @cjoye]

What current generations forget is that Australia had *zero* Capital Gains Tax from its founding through to September 1985 - the first-ever CGT was introduced by Labor under Hawke/Keating… New Zealand still has zero CGT. Socialists are trying to tax the private sector to transfer this income to the public sector to fund its out-of-control growth

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

@scrapegoat87 @wally_waldo83 Hey Nick my point was most Aussie companies don’t grow like US companies do. Population is much smaller here so have to go offshore for growth, which is much harder/riskier. Also, big chunk of market is resources - highly cyclical. Therefore have to take profits more often.

[David McMahon @David_McMahon75]

Let’s be clear. “Buy and hold equities forever” is terrible advice for most investors. Unless you simply own the index. But if you have any degree of turnover (basically all direct share portfolios) the tax drag under these new rules will destroy your ability to compound wealth

[Satoshi Wolf @SatoshiWolf]

My wife's dad is an old school Wog.

Hard working. Loves his family. Frugal. All round great bloke.

He worked 3 jobs when my wife was born and stayed at one of the companies for 43 years.

He has one investment property, the house my wife was born in, and their family home in an affluent area.

He has enough money to do whatever he wants but he's a tightass. Unbelievably tight.

I've spoken to him about it many times and he says all his life he followed a plan, built wealth, a great life for his family and has a simple goal to pass it down to his kids and grandkids.

We told him for years to enjoy his life's work. That's what we want. Fly business class. Go to expensive restaurants often. Buy whatever gadgets you want. Just enjoy it!

Nope. He is deadset he is passing on his accumulated wealth to his kids and grandkids.

Now it seems Labor will be taking a big cut of his life's work. In the spirit of "intergenerational fairness".

The confiscated wealth will be used to pay the ever expanding political class, send it overseas to things that have nothing to do with him, support free loaders and an NDIS program littered with fraud and waste.

Tall poppies will tell me why should he be able to accumulate wealth and pass it to his kids when they can't.

Well, try spending more than 40 years of your life working, saving and investing to give your family a head start in life.

Like every parent should do for their children.

[The Transcript @TheTranscript_]

$JPM CEO this week: "I think asset prices are high, including JPMorgan stock. I'm not that fond of buying stock at these prices, or companies. We're quite patient with capital. It's not burning a hole in our pocket at all. It's just there for a while, no problem."

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

This deal’s getting closer everyday. Almost there…

[Energy Headline News @OilHeadlineNews]

IRAN REJECTS U.S. DEMANDS, SAYS WASHINGTON HAS NO RIGHT TO DICTATE TERMS: MEHR

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

@abl567 @wilburston 💯

[Greg Canavan @gcanavan2]

@alex_mangov Nothing but capital gain rewards you for the risk. Div plus cap gains otherwise what’s the point?

[Tax Guy @tax_oz]

This is the same Danielle Wood who has basically been on the government payroll (or Grattan which is increasingly the same thing in terms of usefulness and accountability) her entire career right?

She has never created a job, been accountable for creating revenue, been accountable for being wrong.. because how can you be wrong when you are just applying your ideology to a model and you can always just blame the model.

We have this entire managerial class of politicians, public servants, academics and think tanks who have never lived in the world that funds the world they live in.

It’s bizarre, they just point at their academic achievements as proof of something and run the world like children playing government.

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

Key points to keep in mind:
1) Iran can't unilaterally open the SoH: only the maritime insurance industry can. And it won't as long as a nuclear deal remains unnegotiated, as the threat of renewed military strikes remain.
2) In other words, best case it will still take months for the SoH to get back to pre-February 28 levels.
3) The US negotiating position has to shift from all stick to some stick/some carrot, because we've tried the stick alone and it wasn't enough to coerce strategic capitulation. And that carrot for Iran is $$$, either from unblocked assets or an easing of sanctions.
4) An Iranian commitment to 'never have a nuclear weapon' is about as dependable as a USG commitment not to attack Iran again. Any worthwhile nuclear deal needs IAEA w/Additional Protocol as a starting point.
5) Israel isn't going to stop in Southern Lebanon.
6) Iran is not going to let the US participate in digging out the HEU.