Marketsifter

I'm Vincent. I kept getting into trades after the move already happened, so I'm building something to fix that. Retail investor, still learning.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

This is the new homescreen for Marketsifter after the restructure. It's basically an early warning system now, you set up alerts for whatever you're watching and it monitors the market 24/7 so you don't have to. One of the newer things is compound alerts, like this NVDA setup watching 5 different conditions (price, options flow, volume, a new whale position, and congressional buying) that fires once enough of them line up.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

The NVDA alert i posted a couple days ago just had its first condition trigger, bullish options flow. asked sifter what was going on and it broke down the flow plus where the other four conditions are sitting right now. First time watching one of my signals resolve in real time, kinda cool.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Barchart Gold just had its worst week in a while and now the headline is gold overtakes treasuries as the top reserve asset. Funny how both can be true at the same time.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@trikcode Zero dollars so far, I knew marketing would be the hardest part but man, its a lot harder than i gave it credit for.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@fxevolution Same setup I learned the hard way with gold earlier this year. When everyone's in the same trade and it starts cracking even on a green day for the broader market, that's usually not the dip, that's the unwind starting.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@KobeissiLetter Gold crashed, oil spiked on the Iran strikes, and PPI just came in at 6.5%, hottest since 2022. Three different stress signals in one week feels like more than coincidence.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Megatron_ron This week's PPI print came in at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Crazy to think that 30% number might be the 'good old days' version pretty soon.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@aleabitoreddit Saw the same explanation on gold yesterday, that the trillion 'erased' wasn't gone, it was institutions freeing up cash for IPO allocations. Now META and MSFT bleeding the same week SpaceX prices makes that liquidity story look a lot less like coincidence.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@KobeissiLetter Yesterday oil spiked to $92 on the Iran strikes, today PPI hits 6.5%. Feels like the first data point where that shock actually shows up, and if the strait stays closed it probably won't be the last.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Kalshi i bought at $5200 in February hearing it might hit $8k before the end of the year, even drained my savings because i was so confident. Learned my lesson to not buy the hype or be dumb enough to invest my savings on a whim😂

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

SpaceX prices tomorrow at $1.77 trillion. This week, Fidelity cut its account minimum for the IPO from $500,000 to $2,000, a 99.6% drop, because SpaceX reserved 30% of the offering for retail instead of the usual 5 to 10%.

Nasdaq also shortened its index inclusion window from 3 months to 15 days to fast track companies like this one. S&P 500 got asked to do the same thing and said no.

Even the people who write the rules can't agree on what to do with this one.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Kalshi Convenient timing for a big 'next year' announcement two days before the IPO prices. Doesn't mean the tech isn't real, but headlines like this are exactly what's supposed to be circulating in your feed right now.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@KobeissiLetter That $270k figure mixes two different stories together, fewer employees with flat revenue looks identical to the same employees producing more. One of those is a productivity story and one is a cost-cutting story, and the number alone doesn't tell you which.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@DrJStrategy AI being real and the market having substantial room to run aren't the same thing. The infrastructure buildout is legitimate but the stocks pricing it in are already years ahead of the earnings. Doesn't have to be a bubble to slowly grind lower.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Kalshi 429k median price at 6.5% mortgages, on the same morning BofA and Citi are flashing their loudest recession warnings since 2008. Consumer confidence surveys say people are terrified. Apparently not terrified enough to stop buying houses.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@unusual_whales The soft vs hard data debate is the signal. When the economy is clearly fine or clearly falling apart, nobody argues about which indicators to trust. That argument only happens at inflection points.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

Three things happening in markets right now:

Citi's bear market risk indicators just hit their highest reading since 2008.

BofA says 70% of their historical bear market signals are triggered.

SpaceX is pricing the largest IPO in history on June 12th at $1.77 trillion.

These aren't separate stories.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@Barchart Blackstone restricting exits on a $1.3 trillion fund. BofA saying 70% of their bear market indicators are triggered. SpaceX about to price the largest IPO in history. Everything is peaking at the same time.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

@DeItaone Whether you trust BofA or not, the "speculative activity" warning is hard to argue with this week. SpaceX is pricing the largest IPO in history at a $1.75 trillion valuation. They made $18 billion last year.

[Marketsifter @themarketsifter]

SpaceX's IPO this week values the company at $1.75 trillion.

To justify that price, analysts say they need to hit $1.1 trillion in annual revenue by 2035. They made $18 billion last year. The most revenue any US company has ever done in a year is $742 billion — that was Amazon.

I'm not saying don't buy it. I'm saying know what you're betting on.