David Trainer

Husband to amazing wife, dad to 3 amazing boys, CEO @newconstructs. Views my own. No advice. Free e-letter:

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

the @NewConstructs Core Earnings Leaders Index (BCORET:IND) beat the S&P 500 by 900bps in 2025, up 27% vs SPX up 18%.
There is real alpha in our proprietary footnotes data and power in the AI we use to collect the data automatically!
Proof is in performance.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

1/ AI may be creating a hidden cost for businesses.

David Trainer (@theRealDTrain37) of @NewConstructs argues companies are paying heavily for tokens while feeding proprietary information into outside models. potentially giving away valuable IP in the process.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

Great article on @NewConstructs' unique value-add for AI.

[Hedge Fund Alpha @Hedgefundalpha]

1/ AI may be creating a hidden cost for businesses.

David Trainer (@theRealDTrain37) of @NewConstructs argues companies are paying heavily for tokens while feeding proprietary information into outside models. potentially giving away valuable IP in the process.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@ProShopGuyMF1 @TravisHoium Yes and they know they need to keep their most precious assets, like their proprietary data, private to them. And not give them to the AI models.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stonetrainer11 @CoachRocBatten @JayDarvin1 @JPIIKNIGHTS @JPIIAthletics @JPIIKnightsFB @PrepRedzoneTN

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stonetrainer11 Just getting started. Some great plays already in Weeks 1 and 2.

[Stone Trainer @stonetrainer11]

Blessed to be at JPII! Here are a few clips from weeks 1 and 2. Looking forward to posting many more. @CoachRocBatten @JayDarvin1 @JPIIKNIGHTS @JPIIAthletics @JPIIKnightsFB

https://t.co/HBwwYPgR2q

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stonetrainer11 @CoachRocBatten @JayDarvin1 @JPIIKNIGHTS @JPIIAthletics @JPIIKnightsFB Let’s go!!
@JHU_Football @MITFootball @washufootball @TUFootballTX here comes another linebacker.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@goldstein_aa @stevehou @edzitron I think CRE firms restructured the debt. Took some earnings hits and kicked the can down the road.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stevehou and @edzitron : would love for you two to debate the merits of this excellent article.

https://t.co/v2pVWPqVUW

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stevehou Good points. I think the big lie is that Anthropic and OpenAI are worth anything close to their expected IPO valuations. I see very little margin long term in AI models. See @_AI_Street article https://t.co/tpiwtLBnTw

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

"Core Foundational models, independent of a closed loop dataset, are not that valuable." From @AndrewDudum on @CNBC with @andrewrsorkin -might be the most important message to the #AI community in 2026. @NewConstructs agrees "data is the asset". https://t.co/PjS7nxuk0O

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@GordonJohnson19 Wow, well put.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@gberg88 ❤️

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@AGTtactical That’s what makes a market.

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

Smart view.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔SpaceX just posted Q2. Revenue $7.8 billion, up 92% year over year, and every segment beat estimates. Starlink is the only segment that made money, with 12 million subscribers and $1.66 billion in operating income. Space lost $542 million. AI lost $1.26 billion and spent $15.8 billion on capex in the quarter. The company also announced a $60 billion acquisition of Cursor. SpaceX ended the quarter with $100 billion in cash, but the market cap sits near $1.5 trillion, which puts the price at close to 50 times annualized revenue.

My Take
Two very different businesses live inside this earnings report. Starlink is one of the most impressive subscription businesses I've seen in years. Twelve million subscribers, up 100% year over year, with an operating margin near 40%. If SpaceX had gone public as a Starlink and launch business, this would be a straightforward buy at a reasonable valuation. The problem is that the other half of the company is a $16 billion a quarter capex furnace that just committed $60 billion more to buy a coding startup, and the market is paying 50 times revenue for the whole package.

The Cursor bet only works if the developer surface holds value while the models underneath get cheaper. DeepSeek's release shows the models are already commoditizing faster than the deals SpaceX is signing to compete. Musk is spending $60 billion on the layer that sits closest to the customer, hoping that's where the moat ends up. I don't share that read. Coding is where models commoditize fastest, and enterprises route work to whatever's cheapest and works.
At this quarter's capex pace, the AI business burns through the entire IPO cash pile in less than 18 months, so there's no room to be wrong. Starlink doesn't cover for that. Two different businesses, two different multiples, one stock price.

Hedgie🤗

[Schwab Network @SchwabNetwork]

.@deeney_bryce and @theRealDTrain37 discuss $KLAR's sharp post-earnings decline despite a quarterly beat.

They examine the impact of weak guidance, executive departures, and challenges facing the company's buy now, pay later business model.

The pair also discuss slowing user growth and the increasing commoditization of financial transactions.

For more market news, tune in at: https://t.co/cNC5lyu88u

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

"Core Foundational models, independent of a closed loop dataset, are not that valuable." From @AndrewDudum on @CNBC with @andrewrsorkin -might be the most important message to the #AI community in 2026. @NewConstructs agrees "data is the asset". https://t.co/PjS7nxuk0O

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@SchwabNetwork @deeney_bryce Thanks for having me on. Great talking $KLAR, which we covered since BEFORE the IPO. Another great call from @NewConstructs. Our position on $KLAR remains unchanged since the pre-IPO report here:
https://t.co/j5yPXswj1F

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

Thanks for having me on. Great talking $KLAR, which we covered since BEFORE the IPO. Another great call from @NewConstructs. Our position on $KLAR remains unchanged since the pre-IPO report here:
https://t.co/j5yPXswj1F

[Schwab Network @SchwabNetwork]

.@deeney_bryce and @theRealDTrain37 discuss $KLAR's sharp post-earnings decline despite a quarterly beat.

They examine the impact of weak guidance, executive departures, and challenges facing the company's buy now, pay later business model.

The pair also discuss slowing user growth and the increasing commoditization of financial transactions.

For more market news, tune in at: https://t.co/cNC5lyu88u

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

👀

[Steve Hou @stevehou]

🔥

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@stevehou @GavinSBaker Agreed!! Show me the money!!

[David Trainer @theRealDTrain37]

@tropicalvalue I love this reverse cash flow approach. What’s required to reach these big numbers in terms of price and utilization? The math is straightforward.