🇧🇷 15y Public Equities (ex-Head of Research @ top Brazil fund). Experience w/ Alternatives & Illiquids. Former Public Co. Board Member. Tech enthusiast.
@oguzerkan Such an awful timing for the CFO departure though. Investors need some "credit cycle" reassurance. Now we have a "Global" CFO that doesn't know that well the Brazilian credit market that is where all profits come from today.
Full disclosure: I have a small position.
[1/7] Depois do meu post sobre #CSAN3, um gestor que respeito me mandou mensagem:
"Isso é idêntico ao que Buffett fez com as tradings japonesas via $BRK. Comprou empresas lastreadas em commodities, com dividendos acima do custo do capital, usando dívida."
Ele estava certo na tese. Errado na estrutura dos deals.
@tuvidux@fahvallim cheguei a dar uma aprofundada no em P&P, mas quando esbarrei na verticalização dos players chineses e sourcing de madeira da indonesia eu desisti
@rodrigohelbinho É por aí. O ponto central foi a estrutura de alavancagem., que quando o CDI subiu tirou a Cosan do jogo.
Se fossem passo a passo, usando os dividendos próprios ou de vendas parciais dos ativos do portfolio da holding como você colocou, o negócio teria parado de pé.
Everyone is debating whether Zuckerberg's performance monitoring is surveillance. In 1991, Danaher was also tracking 50 employee metrics. That was 14 years before they narrowed it to 8 that made the whole system unique.
The issue for $META is whether the data will become legible to run a self-improving harness on.
AI companies are spending billions rebuilding what Danaher built in 1984. The vocabulary has changed, but the architecture hasn't.
1. Kaizen event → Fine-tuning loop
2. Defects per million → Hallucination rate
3. Escalation to supervisor → Human-in-the-loop
[ $DHR & $META - full piece ↓]
@jaminball If companies are already controlling their token budgets at sub-$50B per GW, there will either be construction (incl. electricity) or AI ROI bottlenecks for end-users. Unlikely scenario IMHO.
$BRK likely would not scale its $GOOGL investment to $30 Billion without thoroughly analyzing the return on investment of the AI datacenter buildout. While markets worry that rising depreciation will stifle near-term EPS growth amid massive capital expenditures, Berkshire possesses the capital duration and patience required to let this scale of investment bear fruit.
Traditional infrastructure assets rarely achieve a payback period under 5 years. Yet, structured debt vehicles for Neoclouds ($CRWV / $NBIS / $IREN) currently amortize in 4 years or less. Because Alphabet utilizes its proprietary TPU chips, it should achieve a 30% faster payback timeline, reducing the capital recovery period to roughly 3 years.
Berkshire managers focus on owner's earnings and actual cash flows rather than accounting EPS. If the industry deploys the projected $7.5 Trillion in cumulative AI infrastructure (~$1.5 Trillion annually) and
$GOOGL captures a 20% incremental share, the company will deploy over $300 Billion in Capex compounding at a 3-year payback cycle at the TPU level for years to come.
$BRK likely would not scale its $GOOGL investment to $30 Billion without thoroughly analyzing the return on investment of the AI datacenter buildout.
While markets worry that rising depreciation will stifle near-term EPS growth amid massive capital expenditures, Berkshire possesses the capital duration and patience required to let this scale of investment bear fruit.
Traditional infrastructure assets rarely achieve a payback period under 5 years. Yet, structured debt vehicles for Neoclouds ($CRWV / $NBIS / $IREN) currently amortize in 4 years or less.
Because Alphabet utilizes its proprietary TPU chips, it should achieve a 30% faster payback timeline, reducing the capital recovery period to roughly 3 years.
Berkshire managers focus on owner's earnings and actual cash flows rather than accounting EPS. If the industry deploys the projected $7.5 Trillion in cumulative AI infrastructure (~$1.5 Trillion annually) and $GOOGL captures a 20% incremental share, the company will deploy over $300 Billion in Capex compounding at a 3-year payback cycle at the TPU level for years to come.
Greg Abel gettin' jiggy with it:
$BRK is investing $10 billion directly into $GOOG to help fund its AI buildout plans as part of an $80 billion overall equity raise:
$10B - BRK
$30B - underwritten offering
$40B - ATM to begin Q3 2026
Abel has now announced $17B across two deals in the past 24 hours.
O desfecho separa os dois: $BRK detém ~9% das tradings japonesas e desde o investimento já se valorizaram entre 200% e 400%.
Já a Cosan foi obrigada a desfazer a estrutura alavancada e vendeu suas ações da #VALE3.
[6/7] A tese era a mesma. A execução era estruturalmente incompatível com o Brasil.
Buffett capturou um regime único: juros zerados no Japão, sem risco cambial, sem chamada de margem, bonds de prazo longo.
A Cosan entrou no mesmo trade numa estrutura com custo flutuante e vencimentos curtos. O problema foi o descasamento entre ativo e passivo.
Por sinal, a #VALE3 hoje é cotada > R$80, fora os dividendos do período.
@thomasrice_au 1/ Probably true; maybe will use this specific capital raise to fund their JV with $BX to fund AI datacenters
2/ ~30x P/E; so implied cost of equity likely lower than cost of debt given treasury @ 5%
3/ Their Capex plan is so massive this is all rounding numbers
Generally agree. I find $GOOGL approach to LLM token cost-efficiency a differentiator in the West. Only the Chinese are approaching the ROI equation in the same way.
Shorter-term, (enterprises) both $MSFT and $UBER have recently demonstrated their preoccupation regarding tokens cost-benefit. From the investors side, pods only care about earnings revisions 2-4 quarters out - so it's kind of obvious D&A for the next couple years do not help. Forget about buybacks as well.
Longer-term, it seems inexorable AI is an irreversible trend. DC infra is the pre-requisite. Of course there might be air pockets along the way, but 10 years out ($BRK investment horizon) seems "money in the pocket" for them.
Time will tell.
Appreciate your response. Best of luck.