reconron

Russian Military Analyst. 46 years Russian airplane chaser. Cold War mentality. Можно по Русский. 8000+ hours RC-135.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

@Borrowed7Time @sipjack1776 @holgidaun @RBbethetruth @LadyAstroJet I'm just curious. It has been flying south a lot this month. I think it flies a lot to the command post at Beslan.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

Due to a CS/FCN change after leaving Benghazi and before arriving at Bamako, I believe it landed at another airport, and from its route to/from Bamako, I think it may have been Diori Hamani International Airport, Naimey NER.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

On 21 Oct SFS An-124 CONDOR RA-82035 departed Moscow (CKL) and after a stop at Khmejmim Airbase SYR continued on to Benghazi LBY on 22 Oct. On 23 Oct as RFF704 it landed at Bamako MLI departing later to the east still as RFF704.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

On 22 Oct Gelix Airlines Il-76TD CANDID RA-76360 took off from Dubai UAE and appeared to land in eastern UKR. It did not; this is more spoofing. On 23 Oct it took off from Moscow (SVO) and is eastbound.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

On 20 Oct VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 flew to Accra GHA. It departed on 22 Oct and was tracked as far as BFA, later tracked climbing eastbound over BFA. I suspect the CANDID stopped at Ouagadougou BFA.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

On 22 Oct Il-78M-90A MIDAS tanker RF-78741 took off from Ulyanovsk, flew to the east before returning to base and may have conducted air-to-air refueling operations.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

@holgidaun @Borrowed7Time @IntelNightOWL This could be important. Samjiyon is near to Mount Paektu, the birthplace of the Kim family myth. With Internet outages and the rumors of Kim Jong Un's death, this could mean something!

[reconron @thereccelizard]

If this was RUS or the Soviet Union, all we would have to do it turn on the TV and if Swan Lake was on, we would know someone died!

[reconron @thereccelizard]

There was an interesting flight by Air Koryo An-148 P-671. On 22 Oct it flew from Pyongyang to the airport at Samjiyon returning to Pyongyang later. Samjiyon is near to Mount Paektu, the alleged birthplace of Kim Jong Il and a mythical location for the citizens of the PRK, kind of like the nativity for Christians.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

Given the rumors and the Internet outages, this odd flight to Samjiyon becomes even more mysterious! If Kim Jong Un is dead, did the new ‘Dear Leader’ go to Mount Paektu to ‘get the blessing’ to be new leader?

[reconron @thereccelizard]

@vcdgf555 After a stop at Khmejmim and Benghazi that is a good possibility; however, I thought RF-78658 was going to Bamako but it went to Accra GHA instead.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest engine fire and/or failure right after takeoff.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

A Russian Su-30 (FLANKER-H) crashed in the K-Grad region on 21 Oct. It crashed near a cemetery between the villages of Timofeevka and Zelenyj Bor. https://t.co/AI8WHHAEL9

[reconron @thereccelizard]

My analysis: The crash likely occurred just after the aircraft took off from runway 06 at the Chernyakhovsk Airbase (red dot). The villages of Timofeevka and Zelenyj Bor (yellow dots) are located to the east. The cemetery (blue dot) where the video was filmed was likely just north of Timofeevka. The crash was likely near the green dot.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

On 21 Oct VKS An-148 RA-61729 flew from Moscow (CKL) likely to Rogachevo Airbase on Novaya Zemlya (yellow dot).

[reconron @thereccelizard]

Interesting that the article on Russian recruitment in GHA was published the day the aircraft arrived.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

I thought that VKS Il-76MD-90A CANDID RF-78658 would be making another run to Bamako MLI; however, on 20 Oct it instead flew to Accra GHA.

[reconron @thereccelizard]

however, there may be a more sinister explanation. I wonder who/what will be on board the aircraft when it takes off? https://t.co/Z1xy4fUGdB