Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate

Advisor to my financial advisor friends. I find the stocks the market hasn't repriced yet. Research: Called $MU $AVGO

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

The biggest US listing ever by a foreign company starts regular trading tomorrow morning under $SKHY. I spent the weekend in the 400-page prospectus. It's the cheapest trillion-dollar stock on the Nasdaq — and one chart inside kept me from backing up the truck.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@jimcramer An allied country legal system and US disclosure is exactly the kind of foreign listing I want more of, not less. $BABA , $JD, $BIDU all negative on the five year, Long $SKHY

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@BradPorcellato Thanks for sharing this

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

The price is the high, and I say so in the piece. But I would rather pay up for a company whose guide is a floor than get a discount on one whose guide is a ceiling. Full write-up:
https://t.co/cLH6khqtjQ

Full write-up:
https://t.co/cLH6khqtjQ

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

$BLLN has raised full-year guidance three times in five months. January: $415-430M. March: $430-445M. May: $450-465M.
I think the current number is still too low. Here's why

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

That implies a business growing 84% year over year goes nearly flat sequentially for nine months, while oncology compounds off a $43M annualized run rate and new confirmation tests + Epic integration + Anthem coverage.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@Beth_Kindig I trust you, but oh man, that call, you can’t just say, we have an algorithm for that or oh sorry that’s privileged information.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@jimcramer Two different things are moving. Price is moving on forced selling. EPS revisions in memory and test are still getting marked up every few weeks. When those two point opposite directions for more than a few days, I'll take the side that's describing the business.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

$10k to $15.5M is the stat everyone shares. Nobody shares how hard that is, 60% drawdown in 2008, 45% down in 2013. The return comes from conviction. The holding was the hard part. LONG $AMD $AVGO $MU and holding.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It’s official:

Apple, $AAPL, is now the second company in history to surpass $5 trillion in market cap.

This makes Apple the largest company in the world, now 6% larger than Nvidia.

If you invested $10,000 in Apple in 2003, you would have $15.5 million today.

Truly historic.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@KobeissiLetter A large share of the last decade's gain came from the multiple (41x today), not the earnings. The market stopped pricing Apple as a hardware company. A classic rerate from hardware to subscription / software.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@TacticzH The real story is 5 immersion DUV machines this year, and a goal for 20 in 2027. ASML shipped 131 last year. And touches none of the EUV installed base. Good reporting, agree it is a headline but not a thesis changer.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@wallstengine Just 38 trading days to get here. March's correction took over 100. The velocity matters more than the 10% down. Fast drawdowns are unwinds, slow ones are repricings. Very different setups for what comes next.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

AMD's TAM slides from Advancing AI:
AI accelerators: ~$200B → ~$1.4T (>45% CAGR)
Data center CPU: ~$26B → ~$220B (>50% CAGR)
Total AMD compute: $365B → ~$2T by 2030
The stock fell ~4% while these were on screen & down another 5% today. $AMD Long

[Lisa Su @LisaSu]

Fantastic day at #AdvancingAI. The energy and excitement were incredible. Thank you to @NotTomBrown, @sk7037, Santosh Janardhan, @andrewdfeldman, Jeremy Legg, @jpatel41, @ClementDelangue, and all of the customers, partners, and developers who joined us. The pace of AI innovation has never been faster - and we’re just getting started!

[AMD @AMD]

https://t.co/55FCKBPBUW

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

This is cool.
Physical AI is going to show up in a lot of places that look nothing like a factory floor. Design it, see it on yourself, walk away with it. Cool

[LiveX @LiveX_ai]

LiveX brought Physical AI to NBA Summer League!

We deployed AI devices right in the stadium that let fans design custom apparel, try it on virtually, and snap a selfie to show it off, setting a new standard for the fan merch experience.

This is how modern apparel experiences bypass slow fitting rooms and checkout lines so fans can get right to the value.

From Super Bowl LX to World Cup fan zones to now NBA Summer League, we keep proving the same thing: physical AI is a repeatable, scalable playbook for turning venues into interactive experiences that deliver eCommerce-grade personalization in the real world.

You can check out a full writeup of the deployment on our blog: https: https://t.co/KA5gT8EQtM

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@EricJhonsa Worth noting: H1 capex was already $80.6B. The new $195-205B guide implies $114-124B in H2, roughly $57-62B a quarter. Q2 free cash flow was already negative, -$5.9B, the gap might widen

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@josenajarro Worth noting: H1 capex was already $80.6B. The new $195-205B guide implies $114-124B in H2, roughly $57-62B a quarter. As you said, Q2 free cash flow was already negative.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@JackFarley96 Cloud was 14% of revenue a year ago, now 21%, and its margin just passed the consolidated average for the first time. The mix is starting to pull the whole company's margin up.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@TheTranscript_ Confirmed in the 8-K: $49.6B from stock + mandatory convertible preferred in June, plus another $20.3B in senior notes this quarter. ~$70B raised in Q2 alone, on top of $31.1B in Q1 notes. Capex hit $44.9B this quarter too, FCF was actually negative, -$5.9B.

[Blake Callahan | The Re-Rate @TheReRate]

@TacticzH The release spells out exactly why: the equity securities gain added $6.26 to diluted EPS this quarter, per the filing's own footnote. Strip that out and EPS lands around $2.85, basically in line with the ~$2.90 street consensus. The business beat modestly.