Thesis & Tools

Who's making money off your crypto, and how. Four animated hosts, real filings, every number sourced. Full breakdowns on YouTube. Not financial advice.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

https://t.co/RQ5grHCsjC

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@lookonchain for the timeline: arkham, apr 3: "stopped selling ETH and has started staking ETH." arkham, apr 11: "stopped staking ETH and has started selling ETH." the EF decides sales three months at a time; 25,000 ETH went otc to bitmine this spring.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@beaniemaxi his own answer, part 3 of the thread: the first test for a store of value is "to survive." and ethlabs' post-quantum plan (nov 11) wants the next fork rebuilt around exactly that, with ETH as "the programmable store of value at its center."

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@LarkDavis the numbers behind the reset: drake's devcon 2022 talk had supply heading to "roughly a hundred million" long term. today it's 122.2M, with ~91 ETH burned a day vs ~2,993 issued (https://t.co/f6bYo3xlpE, nov 12).

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@CoinMarketCap context for the "seismic shift": lee chairs bitmine, which reported 6.07M ETH on nov 9. it also bought 25,000 ETH straight from the ethereum foundation in otc deals this spring (the EF's own posts: mar 14, apr 24, may 1).

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@ETHGlobal same guy on bankless in 2020: "the more ETH that gets used to pay for transaction fees, the better a store of value ETH becomes." 2026: store of value, burn optional. the burn now covers ~3% of new issuance (https://t.co/f6bYo3xlpE, nov 12).

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

Full video + every source: https://t.co/b611hjIAEo
Sources: VitalikButerin (Nov 8), Bankless 2020/2025, ETHGlobal Pragma Mumbai (Nov 2026), Justin Drake / Devcon Bogotá (Oct 2022), https://t.co/3GkEgWlsy3 (Nov 12), EF posts (Mar–May 2026), Arkham, Lookonchain, Ethlabs pqai27 (Nov 11).

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

Ethereum's co-founder: the fee burn "was never a true floor."
2020 Vitalik: the burn makes ETH a store of value. 2026 Vitalik, in a smiley mask: "basically decided."
Supply: ~100M promised, 122.2M now. And the Foundation keeps selling.
Store of value, or narrative #5?

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@cryptogoos Same script every cycle: the dip is wanted until it arrives. BTC's best close this quarter was ~$86.6K (Sep 22); today it's ~$71.5K, about -17% (CoinGecko). We tested the cycle-emotion chart on 4 BTC crashes: the feelings repeat, the timing doesn't.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@cryptorover Four days ago Vitalik wrote "ETH as fee-burning token never was as strong as it seemed" (Nov 8). ETH was ~$2,237 that day and ~$2,011 now (CoinGecko). The market read the thread too.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@AshCrypto Small correction, big difference: BlackRock didn't sell. IBIT holders redeemed $269.7M on Nov 11 (Farside), and the fund sold BTC to pay them out. The landlord isn't moving out. The tenants are.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@zackvoell In @RichardPtardio's defence, he's been bulking since Big Bang in '86. Three-hour lunches are a training block.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@RichardPtardio @joinfrontier Who's Legend of CT No. 002?

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

Legends of CT, No. 001: Richard Z. Ptardio.

69. Four marriages. 35 years on the desks. Two days from the London final.

We asked @RichardPtardio the hard questions. He'd already answered them all on X.

@joinfrontier

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@RichardPtardio @joinfrontier @blknoiz06 he went to the street to check on your chart.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@RichardPtardio @joinfrontier And his posts:
Tea, Nov 8 https://t.co/zMsD2DVTU9
Fifth Mrs., Nov 6 https://t.co/N0Q9U7fSGr
69 years young, Nov 9 https://t.co/Jga1imPm3X

[Richard Z. Ptardio @RichardPtardio]

Nonsense.

I'm 69 years young and fully expect to make my fortune before I'm 70.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@RichardPtardio @joinfrontier Every clip is his own, from X:
Frontier promo, Nov 10 https://t.co/kVMocOXbZv
Under the influence pt 2, Feb 26 https://t.co/uCI1lCupBw
Dumplings, Feb 17 https://t.co/1WfuWCdSWj
$ANSEM street, Sep 17 https://t.co/kuAek56qRz

[Richard Z. Ptardio @RichardPtardio]

Price action on $ANSEM has been tough lately.

I ventured into the City of London to discover whether the financial establishment has even heard of the chap.

We've got work to do @blknoiz06.

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@RichardPtardio the only position you've held since '88 without getting stopped out. good luck at the frontier final on the 14th, we'll be watching the oldest seat at the table

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@oracles the layer under the card is the fat one: the issuer keeps the reserve yield. circle booked $658M of reserve income in Q3 at a 3.54% rate, and tether's attested $122.8B in T-bills is ~$1.2B a year per point of rates. the card earns interchange, the float earns the real money

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@JW_Seoul @predictioncom @Kalshi @Polymarket fee side of that $727M: kalshi's standard taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × P × (1−P), so it peaks around 1.75¢ a contract at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0 or $1. a week full of toss-up races is about as good as it gets for them

[Thesis & Tools @thesistools]

@Stephcryptt @primus_labs the freeze race was the wild part: tether froze almost $1B 37 minutes after the main sweep, circle ~$800M, ~$3B frozen in total per binance. CZ's own math still left a ~$2B gap after SAFU. what got away was exactly what nobody can freeze: BTC and ETH