Steve S

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@ManOnThePen Are the new doses available at https://t.co/fmIb7OhA8F?

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@clangwith @GetRoman Not correct based on my experience. Amazon generally gives you quotes for half the medication amounts as ro so it’s misleading. In general pricing is about the same across these offerings. More medication per dose can be better for adherence too.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz hims is actually a pretty strong performer among spac deals. financially one of the strongest i can think of. stock performance. if people thought unit economics didn't work and couldn't get to profitability it would be trading at negative EV now in this market. issue is moat.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz i would never use EV/sales multiples in isolation. I also know how to spend time actually researching businesses, unit economics and building financial projections. Hims has 70%+ GMs, recurring rev biz model and falling CAC right now. they can reach profitability.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz lol so all the meme stocks and meme coins were worth what they were worth last year? i mean there is such a thing as securities analysis and intrinsic value with financial assets. i guess we talking past each other because i believe in such concepts and you don't.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz ATH sorry

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz ATM was $24.46 to be exact. yes am i professionally a public market investor with 15 years of experience and one that was negative unprofitable growth last summer, not after its blatantly obvious to anyone with a heartbeat that we have sticky inflation and a fed behind the curve

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz Truepill also does all of Hims back end. Hims is essentially a really good marketing company. There’s a lot more value in hc delivery infrastructure. Ro hits more TAM today and less rev concentration than Hims thus would commands some magnitude of higher valuation

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz There’s a company called truepill that is not only backed by UnitedHealth (largest hc in world) but also does all fulfillment for United for their cash pay business. Truepill has much worse profitability but investors put a larger multiple on it given it is a white label asset

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz Ro also has $400 million of cash or 2x Hims. Not saying it would trade anywhere close to 14x 2023e sales but it likely would trade at a premium to Hims in public market. Market doesn’t perceive Hims core business to have a solid moat and Ro understands it needs to pivot and can

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@nickbraun @GergelyOrosz Ro will likely do closer to $400m of rev in 2022 based on prior disclosures. Ro also owns all its own infrastructure and logistics - 10 pharmacies, has a b2b business (kit and work path), and has now only about 50 percent of rev from ED and hair loss.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@Shearer19711971 @CorneliaLake High growth businesses are commonly valued on sales especially when have known LT margin profile. Try growing 2.7bn 2022 rev guide 30 percent out to 2025 then x 12-20 percent margins and get your ebitda valuation. Then ask if that’s cheap relative to another 5 yrs of 30 growth

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@zainadil27 @CorneliaLake Unh! Optumcare has 2.2m vbc lives.
Walgreens valued VillageMD at 7-8x ntm revenue. CVS is talking about picking a VBC partner and Cano CFO is from CVS/AET. Humana wants 50 percent of its members in VBC in next few years. It’s like FB talking about metaverse and NVDA dropping

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@Arbarber4 @CorneliaLake Also important to note that United health has a 50bn top line primary care business growing 20 plus percent a year. About 2m of the members are full risk vbc Medicare. Margins are high singles but with massive investing. Cano has only 120k Medicare members. Can be 20x bigger

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@Arbarber4 @CorneliaLake Making money is not theoretical for these businesses. They make money today. Osh is entirely de novo so that masks true profitability.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@Arbarber4 @CorneliaLake Vbc is not new in markets like south Florida and California. Chenmed (private) for example is known to have four wall margins approaching 30 percent. Well run mature clinics can have third party mlrs in the 50s, direct med costs around 10 and marketing and overhead around 5%.

[Steve S @thesmithtrain]

@CorneliaLake Apples and oranges with insurers. Even still margin potential is 3-4x Medicare advantage insurers, rev growth is also 3-4x. Humana trades at 0.6x sales so just accounting for margin delta you at more than current valuation. Market wrong on these. Unh biggest vbc in world!!