Arbarber

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE - DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE.

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@NewmoonCap Make SBC great again...

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@JerryCap When @CathieDWood spins-up an “employee only” hedge fund to go long ShitCos and short FAANGS that she might begin offering to public...

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@nomad_cap @JerryCap 30x+ fake adjusted EBIT-DUH for...

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@CundillCapital How’s it lofty? Consumer balance sheets and confidence very strong.

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@HindenburgRes

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@KerrisdaleCap Don’t dunk on this lol this was negative beta tracking. Stop it Sahm:)

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@pmje73 Paul, do you think the TMT-heavy HFs are going to be forced to unwind positions as they are a bit offside on liquidity and also if they are mainly short non-tech sectors the hedge might not be working causing them to de gross into weakness? I know you said HF PB data don’t matter

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@pmje73

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@saxena_puru Portfolio looking good Puru

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@honam @OrlandoBravoTB It isn’t a real expense for mgmts as it just redistributes and dilutes the existing shareholder base. Management is compensated on these fake metrics and then very often sell the stock they are granted back to the same investors. Essentially roundtripping ownership...

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@plantmath1 Software FCF -Fake Cash Flow

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@pmje73 Or maybe we should just not bid up the best cos to 50-100x FW revs

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@skipp000 @PythiaR Leverage is great until it’s not...GFL could turnout to be $WM of the late 90’s where it didn’t recover for years due to being over levered. $TDG drawdown 2.5x the market in Mar20, so yeah it was fine because of fed but seems risky to be a top 2 position. Then again it’s ur PA.

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@lfg_cap @SaaScalSiakam Cannot easily replicate pod shop results due to active trading. The model requires law of large numbers to get the sharpe, typically 52-56% win/loss rate making few extra bps on winners than losers. Typical book will turnover 8-12x p/year. Small net of +/-20% is real alpha factor

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@SaaScalSiakam Great pair trade - short $IKEA and Long the industry of IKEA furniture assemblers on Craigslist. Let me know if you locate a borrow:)

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@lfg_cap Overestimated earnings potential

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@jack @LevFinCynic chose ViolenCe

[Arbarber @Arbarber4]

@SaaScalSiakam @viggy_krishnan @lfg_cap Report utilizes street consensus est which is reasonable for every sector other than SaaS as it has become normal for mgmt teams to sandbag the guide. Their valaution is 20.5x FW P/S but I'm modeling closer to 17.5x FW P/S. They aren't going from High-40's to high 20's YoY growth