All 4 Hurricane Models show #92L developing into a Hurricane.
The NHC now has an 80% chance of development.
For anyone along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida should start paying attention now
Without an organized center on Invest 92L at this time, models will be all over the place, and subject to major changes over the next couple of days (at least), so take this guidance with a big grain of salt.
There is general consensus from the storm-specific Hurricane models, along with the AI guidance (and even recently the global NWP guidance) that 92L could strengthen and make landfall somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast.
It's too early to know how strong 92L (potentially future Isaias) will be, due to the uncertain interactions with strong shear and dry air. The Hurricane models (HAFS-A/B shown here) depict dry air getting pulled into the storm before landfall this weekend, which will most likely cap intensity, if shear doesn't do it sooner.
As with any TS/Hurricane landfall (again, intensity is very uncertain at this time, and we won't have a solid range for at least the next couple of days), strong winds, heavy rain/flooding, storm surge, and tornadoes will be possible.
Like we've mentioned earlier today, those along the Central Gulf Coast, generally from the TX/LA border, east through the Florida Panhandle should be in a WATCH position. Monitor the guidance and official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center, and be ready to prepare, should a Tropical Storm or Hurricane impact become more likely, and as the guidance narrows.
There is no need for worry or panic at this time, but now is a great time to make sure you have your seasonal/long-term preparedness items in order, so that should you have to prepare for a potential impact later this week, you'll be able to focus on the short-term items.
TROPICAL STORM THREAT is increasing for the Gulf Coast this week, and a hurricane cannot be ruled out...
Nothing has formed yet, but an area of convection will need to be monitored over the next couple of days in the Southwestern Gulf.. We do believe a tropical storm will form, but there are a lot of questions regarding strength and where this storm will track due to wind shear and dry air.
Needless to say, this system will be in the Gulf until at least Friday, before making landfall sometime Friday or over the weekend, so it will have time to organize. Wind shear and dry air will be the two big things to monitor, as they both could significantly impact this storm system's strength.
A LOT of rain is expected from this near the Gulf Coast, regardless of intensity. We'll have updates throughout the week!
Here are the 12z GFS, Canadian, ICON and UKMET for next weekend with the Gulf area of interest. ICON is furthest east (into the Florida panhandle) while the others have landfall in Louisiana.
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[Via Game Informer's cover story]