I run the smallest family office in the world. Investing across equities and alternative assets (except private equity - prove me wrong) with an endowment mindset. Read monthly portfolio updates and thematic research at https://t.co/ud7oFR7H48. Always happy to exchange ideas.
@Investor_NICK_ It’s just multiple compression in many areas of the “quality” bubble. Great company would love to buy but probably will never do so at 20x.
The US bond market crisis is intensifying.
While everyone is focused on AI and the Iran War, the US bond market is in a complete meltdown.
The 30Y Yield is now above 5.00% and the 10Y Yield is nearing the pivotal 4.50% level, which resulted in President Trump's "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025.
Long-term yields are now ABOVE levels seen prior to Fed rate cuts in another brutal reminder that the Fed can not contain the long-end of the yield curve.
At the current pace, we will likely see US mortgage rates rise back above 7.00% this year.
The question then becomes:
How much longer can markets (or the US government) ignore the yield crisis?
And, who folds first?
„1. Know what you own - and why“
Probably the best advice in investing but what it means can be so different: some people are happy with a concentrated portfolio of 10 companies they know, some are happy with a standard 70/30 and some are happy with more speculative portfolios.
https://t.co/PuPa4qpBYg
Right now I think it’s more a ‘feeling’ about the AI trade, many companies influenced by higher expected AI buildout, and so on. This all combined with lower consumer confidence, higher inflation expectations. Some pockets of the market may be expensive but some are as cheap as they haven’t been in years. I’m still seeing a lot of opportunities.
@NotA_Bull PE is a very misleading metric when you evaluate Berkshire. You should think of it rather as a pile of cash plus the stock portfolio plus some portion of the market cap as the operating businesses.
@longriverCM Great thesis very easy to understand. It is still amazing how much information is publicly available and still how wrong the market can be in its pricing action.