ThinBlimp

Sportsbooks, Polymarket, Kalshi, — and the stories that move them.

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See Further ☁️

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Polymarket, Kalshi, Fanduel, DraftKings on one screen.

The same market matched across every venue that lists it, priced live: Sports, Elections, The Fed, Crypto.

Connect accounts, track positions in one place.

Stop reading five tabs -- See Further☁️

🔗 https://t.co/IxTIPio9NA

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@CryptoNobler

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@Polymarket

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@zerohedge

[Predictbook @Predictbook]

Las Vegas just got first prediction market bar.

60+ screens of live Kalshi & Polymarket odds on Las Vegas Blvd.

One catch: Nevada courts have blocked sports, election & entertainment contracts statewide. You can watch the Cowboys line all night. You just can't trade it.

You can still trade the weather though.

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Hormuz is down to 3 ships a day. Diesel is $6.20.

PortWatch 7-day avg to Oct 4: 2.7 transits.
February: 78. The markets settle on 60.

Back above 60 by Dec 31
Polymarket 19¢ (+426) // Kalshi 13¢ (+669)

Diesel: +$2.72 since January.

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[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Bitcoin dips to $80,000 this week
Polymarket 66.5¢ → 10.5¢ (+852)

Bitcoin's October high tops $87,500
Kalshi 39¢ → 58¢ (−138)

Oil strikes down, bitcoin strikes up.

Which one fades first?

Follow @ThinBlimp: both venues, live ☁

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Thu 12:17 PM ET. Trump: no attack on Iran before the midterms.

WTI hits $100 in October
Polymarket 42.5¢ → 37¢ (+170)

Hormuz normal by Dec 31
Polymarket 18.5¢ (+441) // Kalshi 14¢ (+614). Didn't move.

Crude repriced. Hormuz didn't.

Who read it right?

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[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Guardians to win tonight
DraftKings −117 // FanDuel −112 // Kalshi 52¢ // Polymarket US 52¢

White Sox to win the series: Polymarket US 70¢ // Kalshi 70¢.

Which one is wrong?

#GuardsBall #WhiteSox #Postseason
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[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

TNF, 8:15 PM ET: Buccaneers at Cowboys.

Cowboys −9.5, total 48.5 at all four venues.

Cowboys to win
DraftKings −500 // FanDuel −500 // Kalshi 80¢ // Polymarket US 80.3¢

Can Tampa Bay cover +9.5?

#TBvsDAL #GoBucs #DallasCowboys #TNF
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[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.31% on Monday, its highest close since May 2002.

Will it close at 5.4% or higher before year-end?
Polymarket 79¢ // Kalshi 80¢

5.5%: Polymarket 52.6¢ // Kalshi 56¢

Both settle on Treasury's daily close.

Fed Governor Waller said this morning: "I anticipate additional hikes."

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Brewers 3, Padres 1. Milwaukee wins the NLDS 3–1 and faces the Dodgers.

First pitch: Polymarket 49.5¢ // Kalshi 50¢. Brewers took a 1–0 lead, then Tatis homered to tie it and Milwaukee fell to 44¢ on Kalshi.

Chourio and Frelick put them back ahead. Kalshi had the Brewers at 99¢ by the last out.

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Rays 4, Yankees 3. Rays sweep the ALDS.

Bottom 6th, Volpe's drive was ruled a home run on the field. The Rays' price went from 77¢ to 41¢ in 45 seconds on Kalshi.

Then the review: fan interference. Volpe doubled, Rays led 4–3, and the price was back to 60¢.

Rays opened at 40¢ on both venues: Polymarket 40¢ // Kalshi 40¢.

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@MLB

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Two comebacks tonight, per Kalshi.

Guardians were 21¢ in the first inning. They won 9–3.

Dodgers were 34¢ in the sixth. They won 4–1 and take the NLDS 3–1.

Charts show both venues, Kalshi and Polymarket US.

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

The Social Reckoning is 63% on Rotten Tomatoes (73 reviews, 46 fresh). Kalshi on its final Tomatometer score, Oct 12:

Above 60: 47¢
Above 65: 9¢
Above 70: 2¢

Polymarket US lists it too, but its books are tiny: 65 or more is 1¢ to 66¢.

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@Variety

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Brewers lead the NLDS 2–1. Game 4 is at 10 PM ET.

Gasser (MIL, 3.87 ERA) vs. Buehler (SD, 4.63).

Padres to win:
DraftKings −112 // FanDuel −110 // Kalshi 51¢ // Polymarket US 51¢

Brewers to win the series:
Polymarket US 81¢ // Kalshi 80¢
#WinOurWay
#FightForTheFaithful

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@Kalshi

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

@RaysBaseball

[ThinBlimp @ThinBlimp]

Rays lead the ALDS 2–0. Game 3 is at 8 PM ET at Yankee Stadium.

Martinez (TB, 3.10 ERA) vs. Fried (NYY, 2.80).

Yankees to win:
DraftKings −175 // FanDuel −167 // Kalshi 61¢ // Polymarket US 60.5¢

Rays to win the series:
Polymarket US 83¢ // Kalshi 83¢