Halloworld

[FABIAN 🇨🇭 @FabianFindsEdge]

+522% IN TWO YEARS. VERIFIED. ONE SETUP.

And Clement Ang's @Clement_Ang17 MAIN trading setup is so simple that most traders would probably overlook it.

No secret indicators. No complicated strategy.

Just Oliver Kell's Price Cycle and one particular stage:

THE EMA CROSSBACK.

One of my absolute favorite entries as well.

If a new trader asked me where to start, I'd show them these 8 minutes before recommending another trading course.

This might be the most valuable 8-minute trading lesson you'll watch this year.

💵Potentially worth MILLIONS over a trading career.

📕Watch it. Study it. Bookmark it.

Huge thanks to @WordsofRizdom and @chartfanatics. 👇

[Squawk Box @SquawkCNBC]

"I think Lilly's going to be a $2,000 stock in the next three or four years," says Ken Langone of $LLY: https://t.co/keOx9XymEy

[Halloworld @thirdthrowaways]

@ShanghaoJin Wonderful! Used ai to translate to English!:)

[Herman Jin @ShanghaoJin]

每次转弯、U turn的时候，我往往都累积了很多信息，并不是心血来潮的

现在X上，因为利率而看空市场的人太多了，但是这些KOL真的懂利率宏观么？

[Steve Donzé @steve_donze]

The US is currently exhibiting classic mid-cycle dynamics.

It's noteworthy that current conditions almost exactly mirror 1997 when the Greenspan Fed enacted a single tap-on-the-brakes rate hike.

[James Muninn @Muninn]

I studied all of @DanZanger Newsletters since 1998 (4700+) and compared his trading with @Qullamaggie

Qullamaggie says Zanger was one of his biggest inspirations, but he didn't copy everything Zanger did.. and Q's results are much, much better compared to following Zangers Newsletter picks..

[Ted Zhang @TedHZhang]

After studying so many moves over the years, I realized that when you get a real monthly base breakout usually from multi-year ranges, they last 1-2 years (12-24 months) usually or longer.

Just study the previous moves of $NVDA $MSTR $BTC $ETH $TSLA and other current big winners $SNDK $MU $WDC $STX.

From here, have a timeframe sell rule of 1-2 years combined with the 30-40 week moving average to catch the cycle move. There are usually 2-4 weekly bases within the uptrend lasting anywhere from 4-24 weeks in length.

[Green Lark @green_lark]

Historical CAGR starting 1985 as a function of leverage.

Single-stock leveraged ETFs generally aren't suitable for long-time holding, though there may be exceptions like BRKA, which is effectively an index and behaves similar under leverage as the market.

Some leverage makes a lot of sense for ETFs diversifying into bonds, gold, trend.

[Market RebellionHQ @RebellioMarket]

Tips for Successful Trading with Dr. Brett Steenbarger & Mike Bellafiore — Trading Psychology
1 hour of pure trading psychology.

If you want to improve your trading, don’t just study charts. Study your own behavior under pressure.
1 hour Very worth watching Take notes.

[Will Hu @traderwillhu]

Key Lessons Learned from Kristjan Qullamaggie By Martin Luk

1. Beyond Patterns & Technical Setups
"I think lots of people, many people are focusing a lot on the setups and the technical side or pattern side of Christian's trading. I think it's not necessarily true or not the perfect way of learning from him."

2. Risk Management: Defining & Tightening Stops
"I think the biggest influence from Christian to me is defining your stop and tightening your stop. In the early stage, I used a pretty wide stop, maybe 5% to 8%. I came across Christian and he always set his stop at the low of day, mostly around 3% generally, and he always sticks to that."

"Whenever he enters a stock, he's just going to put his stop at the low of day. So he's really clear where he should exit a stock... determine the stop before you enter."

3. Stock Selection & Themes
"Another huge influence is stock selection. Christian always prefers liquid names, fast-moving names, and orderly-moving names. He won't trade the ones that keep chopping around or moving 1% to 2% each day. He loves to find a stock with the right theme, with volume, and clean to trade."

"Talking about theme, theme is also one of the major things that I learned from him. Before that, I really focused a lot on the pattern itself, forgetting that stocks move as a group and a certain group would outperform the whole market drastically and give you superior returns."

4. Simple & Effective Exit Rules
"Exit rules: you have a lot of trailing rules with the 9 or 21 EMA. Christian uses the 10 and 20 EMA, but I think it's the same thing. I really found it powerful and simple."

5. Mindset & Thinking in Percentages (Account Scaling)
"There's a lot on the mental side of trading. For example, I learned to always think in percentage of your accounts instead of absolute numbers. Christian brought this out and emphasized it a lot. He said what really separates a good trader from a great trader is the ability to scale up his account."

"The reason why those traders cannot scale up their accounts is they focus too much on the absolute numbers—like making $100K or $1 million—but that's not important at all. You should always think in percentages, and I really think it elevated my trading by a lot."

"My answer is just focus only on the percentage of your account, or the number of risk multiples—how many R's you earned in this trade instead of how much money you earned."

6. Synthesizing Knowledge & Building Your Own Style
"Another really good point from Christian is that he just took one or two things from this trader, learned one or two from that guy, but not completely copying them 100%. I really agree and resonate with his points."

"A lot of people are just trying to copy a certain trader, setup, rule, or stock-picking technique completely, but you need to form your own style."

[James Muninn @Muninn]

The least remarkable thing about Market Wizard Kristjan Qullamaggie is his position sizing.

@Qullamaggie: 0.2 to 0.5 in most trades
@PeterLBrandt: 0.8 at most, usually less
@Upticken: 0.5 at most
@CFlanders7: 0.25 to 0.5
@theEquilibrium: 0.25 to 0.5
@RyanPierpont: 0.25 to 0.5
@martinlukkt: 0.5 (but sizes bigger)
@EBoboch: 0.3 to 0.5
@TeCLaro: 1 to 2
@TedHZhang: 0.15 to 0.25 on the initial entry
@PradeepBonde: around 1, down to 0.25
@jfsrev: 0.15 to 0.25, ramped to 0.35
@1charts6: 0.2 to 0.5
@stamatoudism: 0.25 to 0.4
@Clement_Ang17: 0.3 to 0.5 (but sizes bigger)
@alphatrends: 0.3 to 1, but can size up
@markminervini: 0.15 to 1

[James Muninn @Muninn]

Qullamaggie cherry-picked the best bits from Zanger and mixed it with the best bits from other traders..

I'm grateful I can build on the work of giants and the distilled knowledge he has shared with us..

[Jim Panzee @Ozard_OfWiz]

ok, let's go
if you have sth specific to look at, send me a dm

start with the wild
SOXX has had a decent washout (A, left panel) as per our chimp algo and volatility confirms leverage problem and correction but we can see, that a lot of doubt is baked-in as volatility followed the recent price (B and C, right panel) advance
volatility is not over imho

[Halloworld @thirdthrowaways]

@Brad_Setser But whats the trade here?

[Halloworld @thirdthrowaways]

@stevehou @DavidDaokuiLi Nothing left except AI. Money should go to services instead

[Luke Kawa @LJKawa]

An incredibly specific and pertinent stat from JPMorgan:

The distribution of returns for stocks after they’ve dropped 30% on the heels of doubling over a two-month stretch.

[Meb Faber @MebFaber]

Even if you have a crystal ball with perfect foresight, and you lever the portfolio you WILL blow up.

Yet all the GPs and LPs think:

but not me.

https://t.co/XEPVSO0vRV

[TSCS @SCapStrategist]

Holy shit. This is 100 pages long. It’s the entire oil midstream.

I won’t be coy. This is the most important oil piece we’ve produced. It took a while. Collaboration with @jackprandelli.

It covers what a barrel actually costs to move, who owns every link in the chain, how the benchmarks are manufactured, why insurance reprices a war instantly, and who really made the money in 2026.

Then we created the strongest bear cases we could build against ourselves, with dates and tripwires.

Everyone is trading oil this month. Almost nobody can tell you how it works. That ends today.

https://t.co/9iiCCHEqDs

[Darren r-σ²/2 @ReformedTrader]

Intramonth Momentum Cycle (Nathan et al.)

L/S cap-weighted momentum performs best from trading days 9 to 4 prior to month-end (PreTOM). This might help explain why momentum works.

Performance is smoother, more consistent over time, and less subject to crashes for PreTOM than for the Rest of the Month. (Figure 1)

This is entirely due to the performance of the short leg (Figure 2).

It turns out that when mutual funds need money, they sell stocks that are down, as those stocks have tax losses, pay fewer dividends, and are psychologically easier to get rid of due to poor performance. This happens regularly each month (Figure 3) and during market crises (Table 8 - see paper).

When settlement rules changed, momentum's profit window changed accordingly, providing independent evidence for the explanation above. (Figure 4)

The PreTOM vs. Rest of Month return differences also show up in 19 other countries but not in Japan, which was treated separately because momentum has historically not been profitable in Japan anyway before controlling for value. (Table 9)

As suggested earlier, these returns are not compensation for crash tendencies during PreTOM. Rather, momentum's crashes have historically occurred during the Rest of the month. (Figures 5 and 6)

The authors find that the anomaly survives quoted bid-ask spreads. (bottom of page 20 in the paper)

This anomaly also explains why sorting mutual funds based on trailing 12 months of returns (with no skip-month) predicts future returns. The "loser" funds own "loser" stocks and also have high expense ratios. (Table 10 - see paper)

Even if you choose not to trade it, this seasonality gives us additional evidence that momentum is not simply a product of data mining.

The version of momentum used here is cap-weighted and works in liquid stocks because it's large institutions that sell losers during PreTOM. So go forth and short those losers!