I have never understood the Eastern and Northern European mindset of going on vacation during summer.
When your city is 75 degrees and beautiful and everything is available, you go to Greece and pay $300 a day to turn yourself into a lobster.
Instead of just... going in November. You know, when your city is 40 and dreary and grey with 4 hours of "sun "a day.
And Greece is 75 and you get a private beach.
Make it make sense.
@wadefoster@zapier 70 person team, heavily reliant on Zapier (building most of the automations either agents, MCP etc myself). Would love to check this out
And it's HQ'ed in King's Cross.
It's neighbours include OpenAI, DeepMind, Meta, Wayve, and Anthropic's new 800-person office is just down the road.
London is on a generational run.
In 48 hours at the Munich Security Conference I met British & European founders building:
- space data centers
- fusion power
- cyber defences for AI (x2)
- intelligence drones
- robotic exo-skeletons
- novel geothermal energy plants
- new AI-designed body armour
- new AI-designed plastic eating enzymes
- a laser-mining company for rare earth metals
Something is happening that’s for sure.
I have been posting repeatedly on X about the extraordinarily fast collapse of births across the planet: in rich and poor countries, in fast-growing and slow-growing economies, in religious and secular societies, under right-wing and left-wing governments, with high taxes and with low taxes. The pattern is universal.
I knew this trend would continue. Still, the figures released this morning left me genuinely speechless. China’s government announced on Monday (see screenshot below) that births in 2025 fell to 7.92 million, a staggering 1.62 million fewer than in 2024, and that the total fertility rate has dropped to 0.93.
Few economists have been more forceful than yours truly in arguing that births are collapsing, yet even I was surprised by these numbers. I was forecasting around 8.5 million births, not 7.92.
To put this into perspective: if China could somehow sustain 7.92 million births per year from now on, its population would eventually stabilize at roughly 625 million, far below today’s 1.405 billion. In reality, as smaller cohorts reach childbearing age, births will fall well below 7.92 million. Hence, 625 million is a very generous upper bound, even under implausibly optimistic assumptions about life expectancy.
Put differently, there were fewer births in China in 2025 than in 1776, the year the United States declared independence.
I am still trying to process these numbers. This is the defining issue of our time.
That fry represents one, maybe 2 shelf stable, long storage, Idaho potatoes grown in a single field by a single farmer, processed and flash frozen for indefinite storage until needed, fried on demand as needed
That fruit cup is the result of 7 different fruit suppliers, harvested and shipped fresh from global supplies in a matter of hours to a day, hand cut and assembled and served immediately before browning and decay sets in.
The fact you can do that for the cost of 15 minutes of labor or less is a f---ing miracle.
China's trade surplus tops $1tn for the first time and reconfirms the question: What does China really need to import from the rest of the world? It believes it can make everything better, faster and cheaper, and it's probably right..
https://t.co/1bQkvcG3qP
The ideal outcome is that founders incorporate, raise, hire, build, pay tax and ultimately list in the UK.
The second best outcome is that they have a Delaware topco and ultimately list in the US, but everything between is in the UK.
An exit tax is just going to push founders to move elsewhere as soon as they can. It’s a terrible idea which further limits potential.
Instead of managed decline, the UK needs to reorient towards a growth environment:
- Let BBB funds invest outside of the UK
- Shift GLP activity to early stage EMs
- Improve EMI incentives
- Remove S/EIS for funds
- Improve S/EIS for angels (remove long stop requirements)
- Full expensing for capital investments
- Remove SBRR cliffs
- etc
Incentivise growth at the base, use the US to support growth while UK capital catches up, and build a more attractive exit market.
More on much of this in @andrewjb_’s excellent article:
In 2000, UK top 10% incomes were no 3 in the world, but they’ve since gradually fallen and are now behind the rest of the Anglosphere and northwestern Europe; just above Spain and Italy.
@CMCabrera_@Tallow__ I think it’s slightly confusing that the website and the restaurant have different names. Although I’m sure the vision makes sense I would start with one and make that the name of both the website and restaurant
🧵The US-EU trade deal has generated a lot of talk on X about how this is a humiliation for the #EU, how it should be a wake up call for Europe, how Europe must assert itself, etc. My take is that if anything it should finally put paid to all the talk about the EU as “Europe.”1/5
Eastern and Northern Europe refused to confront Trump due to security concerns, fearing an American retreat.
Italy is sceptical of the Franco-German axis and thus wanted to keep the USA on their side.
Angry about the deal?
Blame weakness, distrust and disunity in Europe.
A few random thoughts on the deal
1) After a "happy globalisation" phase, the EU risks entering "happy vassalisation" phase (@GillesGressani)
The US went from being a "benign" liege lord to a much more aggressive one.
🇪🇺 Further European integration would add around €3 trillion in GDP every year! Almost 4 times the entire US defence budget. It's time to complete the Union
@christianreber Hi Christian,
Let me know if you need someone to help with registration/event app etc. We work with TNW, Money20/20, TechArena and many others.
Thanks
T