Kev

Student interest in L/S:

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

$HPE is trading at 14x fwd P/E, with a great growth outlook on servers. Meanwhile, their competitor is getting knocked out by the Taiwanese government.

Just a thought...👀

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@xenoxidal1234 It seems to bounce between 2.3 and 3.3HKD. The whole Hang Seng is getting crushed which probably makes this pattern worse rn

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

almost time to buy https://t.co/Ssnirc8fm6 again

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

- 1.5x book is a higher valuation than .8x book but I don't think it's overly expensive compared with peers BOW (1.85x), SKWD (1.67x), PLMR (3.1x) and RLI (2.7x). However, IGIC has a much more resilient balance sheet and I believe it has better future prospects regardless of the insurance premiums market.
- There aren't recent purchases but management owns about 15.7m shares in total. With a share price of $25.75 it means they own over $405M of the company or over 36%. I don't think alignment is in question here.

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

$IGIC is a disciplined specialty insurer whose value comes less from chasing growth than from underwriting restraint, conservative reserving, balance-sheet strength, and returning capital when markets are unattractive. The upside case is that this prudence lets it protect book value through softer cycles while selectively leaning into harder pockets, especially Middle East political violence and war-risk, where losses have forced competitors to reprice or pull back.

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@blondesnmoney Any thoughts/research on Nanya Tech?

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Wrote this up on $HPE in October. I was really disappointed with guidance which I thought was too conservative. The benefit of that is it gives more time to buy!

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Really optimistic on $HPE after the post-investor day drop. Writeup below

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@sea_ill funny

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Long $HPE Short $DELL looks good here

[Stockcoach @StockcoachPB]

$DELL: The deal with the federal government is not even for servers, but for software consolidation, which is historically an incredibly low-margin business. There’s no way the stock should be up so much, Trump or no Trump.

Discloser: I am short Dell at $420.

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@zephyr_z9 Trendforce now says that the fab expansion is just a reallocation of capacity from Taiwan to Virginia. Do you agree and does it change your outlook on NYT?

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@jukan05 Trendforce now says that the fab expansion is just a reallocation of capacity from Taiwan to Virginia. Do you agree and does it change your outlook on NYT?

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@trendforce @zephyr_z9 Would the decision to just reallocate capacity rather than expand capacity benefit companies like Nanya Technology?

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Listening to Gavin Baker podcast. He says that in the AI explosion, like commodity producers, the worst companies will go up the most because they have the highest marginal benefits

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@WaterworldCapi1 $CALX , $2.5B market cap disrupted by SpaceX and memory prices:

https://t.co/kfngFbY9Qo

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Really optimistic on $HPE after the post-investor day drop. Writeup below

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

IPO debate aside, the ~100% growth in Starlink subscribers is a major reason why I'm so bearish $CALX. They're competing with Starlink in Starlink's strongest areas (rural) and they don't have opportunities to pivot or refocus.

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

So is Starlink March ARR actually below that of December….?! $SPCX

[Consensus Media @ConsensusGurus]

*NVIDIA WAVERS AROUND THE FLAT LINE AS INVESTORS DISAPPOINTED IN DIVIDEND RAISE; WANTED ITALY PURCHASE

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

I am a machine that turns profits from shorts into losses on oil

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

Long $SGN.WA

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@Merridew__ Man’s Search for Meaning

[Kev @timberlinetrad]

@pennycheck Cut $PSIX add $PUMP