Timbo

Family-first.
Investor: ₿ | SpaceX | xAI | X | Tesla

[Timbo @Timboo]

What's being marketed as a rocket company in reality is an integrated stack spanning launch, broadband, mobile telecom, defense systems, AI training and inference, agentic software, hyperscaler, developer tools, payments, semiconductor fabrication, and orbital data centers.

It is the most vertically integrated technology and infrastructure business ever assembled.

I don’t believe the average person, nor investor, truly appreciates how unique SpaceX is.

An absolute beast of a company and yet it’s only just begun. Super exciting. 🇺🇸 $SPCX

[Timbo @Timboo]

https://t.co/3xtRd0ISki

[Timbo @Timboo]

@elonmusk @SawyerMerritt This should get some other states/counties to pay attention 👀

[Timbo @Timboo]

@rektmando I don’t own any MSTR or any of their preferds, but my man didn’t you launch an NFT project and now they’re worthless?

Maybe you should sit this one out.

[Timbo @Timboo]

Worth the read.
$SPCX

[nextbigfuture @nextbigfuture]

Morningstar ignores SpaceX largest current business They come up with a valuation only half of the IPO and even achieving AI data centers in space is not worth the full IPO valuation. They value an AI data center in space scenario as only worth $1.3 trillion. They achieve this crappy analysis by ignoring the Anthropic $15 billion per year rent, no Cursor or Grok Code success possibility, lowball on Starlink high speed internet and lowball Starlink direct to cellphone. @aaronburnett @VladSaigau @ARKInvest

XAI already has built 20% of all global AI data centers in the last two years. 2 GW out of 10 GW. This is without space AI data centers. There can also be collaboration with Tesla on distributed AI at superchargers and other sites.

The SpaceX business right now in terms of revenue and profits is the $15 billion per year from the rental of the AI data centers that already have been built.XAI gets this from renting out 325000 GPUS. 230,000 H100, H200 and B200 GPUs at Colossus 1 and 95,000 B300 GPUs from Colossus 2. If XAI only needed 275,000 B200 GPUs to run and train Cursor Composer and Grok then XAI could rent out 185,000 B300s. This could be another $20 billion per year in rent from an already built and operating AI data center.

XAI built Colossus 2 in 12 months. XAI has a Macroharder - aka Colossus 3 facility prepared for its building and has arranged for 2 gigawatts of energy. This could be 1 million Rubin GPUs ready to run AI for others or their own Cursor or Grok. This could be $100 billion per year in rent.

Morningstar dismisses this business and makes no attempt to discuss or model XAI or SpaceX following up to build more terrestrial ai data center.

They discuss verticalizing the AI infrastructure and talk about some chip production but they ignore Terafab. SpaceX just bought over 3100 acres (about 5 square miles) where they plan to build Terafab.

They have no scenario where XAI does anything or where Cursor acquisition is completed and it becomes relavant. This is despite ove $3 billion per year in XAI revenue and over $3 billion in Cursor revenue. A bullish cursor and grok code scenario is reaching one third of future Anthropic renenue of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.

There is no mention of X Payments. This is already in beta and Elon Musk created Paypal.

They describe what they call a wildly optimistic scenario that only doubles low balled Starlink revenue and value. This is where Starship is working in 2029 and then AI data centers get to 20% of earth based global ai data center build. XAI has already built 20% of the ai data centers completed in the last two years.

About 10 gigawatts of AI data center built in last two years and 2 gigawatts by XAI.

Starship could be launching real satellites in 2-3 months by just relighting the rockets to safely de-orbit. This safe de-orbit was why they were holding back puting up payloads. They did not want to risk 200 tons of space junk which could happen if the engines did not de-orbit.

The Starship booster has already been returned 3 times and reused twice. A fully reused booster would lower launch costs to $100-200 per kilogram.

They talk about the heat shield on Starship as something three years away but that looks like it is working from the last launch.

If the full AI data center in space scenario happens it will be 10-100 times the global AI data center deployment. It will tens to hundreds of trillions of dollars.

[Timbo @Timboo]

@_tdudenhoeffer @mitchdmoore Does Merrill Lynch count? I am on quarterly calls w/ them.

[Timbo @Timboo]

Let’s assume so, this warrants 10x the annual payment from your client?

Even at 0.5% (50% less) fee, you make 5x more revenue from the $20M client despite charging half the fee rate.

I applaud the entire wealth management industry’s willful ignorance. The same takes place in real estate. Realtors add de minimis value.

Doesn’t mean there isn’t a place for both, it just means they’re charging too much for the value they do provide.

Catch ‘em while you can, boys.. b/c on the positive side, this will all change with AI… just a matter of time.

[Timbo @Timboo]

10x more costly for who exactly? Not you.😂 You still collect your 1%.

What precisely do you do differently (besides buying different ETFs and applying different allocations) for a $20M client versus a $2M? Please enlighten me, since you disagree.

Also.. your $2M client isn’t more high maintenance than your $20M client? I bet they are. Smaller clients are always harder to deal with.

[Timbo @Timboo]

@shaunmmaguire @danprimack You can’t reason with these ppl, Shaun. It’s all too much for them. Elon derangement syndrome really clouds their judgement. Only to their detriment.

[Timbo @Timboo]

Is this a parody account?
If not…
maybe you didn’t read my reply.
Or maybe you’re willfully ignorant to the fact that your efforts don’t change based on client size. AND, smaller clients are almost certainly more high maintenance so your larger clients in fact require less effort.

[Timbo @Timboo]

@JOBhakdi Not even close.
Tesla is ~10% of my portfolio and I am bullish but this is pure cope and hope.

[Timbo @Timboo]

Unpopular opinion , or maybe it’s popular now 😂 … Bitcoin treasury companies were largely just a major grift and consequently have been terrible for Bitcoin.

Trump too. The grift has been unprecedented.

Yes, I know.. Bitcoin doesn’t care. That’s right, but people do.

Nonetheless, patience will pay. Own it and ignore it. Come back in a decade and I’m confident we’ll be quite pleased. 🐂

[Timbo @Timboo]

@HunterBiden Epic

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Market goes up 20% for two months.

One day it drops -1%,

Bears: I warned you.

[Peter H. Diamandis, MD @PeterDiamandis]

If you think SpaceX is a rocket company with an internet business, you're basically valuing Amazon on book sales in 2005.

[Timbo @Timboo]

💯 .. most investors will hold the majority of their shares (me included).

Yes, there will be some rebalancing from funds and some shaving of their investment (also me included), but the key here is the unique and gradual unlock of shares paired with index fund forced buying.

I think it’ll be a very healthy entrance into public markets.

There’s never been a more vertically integrated technology and infrastructure company to exist like this before. SpaceX is a must own, imo.

[Timbo @Timboo]

"There's More Greed Than There is Fear" According to Goldman Sachs' Solomon.

But they aren't getting out of this market.

While I agree with this sentiment I plan on reducing my trades going into the next two weeks.

For me it's time to raise cash. This doesn't mean selling $TSLA shares.

And $TSLA continues to "Struggle" according to some. I'm not sure we are watching the same company.

Let's Discuss:

[Timbo @Timboo]

@sweatystartup lol .. let’s check in 5 years from now

[Timbo @Timboo]

Send this to anyone questioning infrastructure investment… Google, Amazon, SpaceX(AI) [soon].

“Compute is revenue.”
“Compute is profit”
“The more you buy, the more you make”

-CEO of Nvidia, Jensen.

[Timbo @Timboo]

@bryanhasling @L91457491184997 I know this wasn’t directed at me but fwiw I enjoy some of the content put out by advisors.. some great estate mgmt and tax efficiency examples.

That said, it’s always funny watching all the CFPs defend their 1% fee

[Timbo @Timboo]

@bryanhasling I didn’t think you would

[Timbo @Timboo]

@comic do you hold a long term BTC bag or just play swing trades?