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@FrancescaBowbr2 Survation already updated the model for Brecon just waiting on the new modelling for Montgomeryshire. I'm voting for Labour to oust Tories where I live. Lib Dems will oust the Tories in Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr
@FrancescaBowbr2 Lib Dems have been 1st for 100+ years in Montgomeryshire. They have been second in the last 3 elections and they recently won the Council. The swing from disaffected Tories will go to Lib Dems not Labour. So Labour voters should be tactically voting Lib Dems.
@FrancescaBowbr2 Other way round. The model is wrong and is over compensating Glyndwr into Montgomeryshire. They had Labour winning Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tae as well until they updated the model 🤦
@EdHcom @carolvorders Survation have updated their Modal on Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tae where they placed Lib Dem 3rd now 1st. Next will be Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr.
@WinstanN70 @THE_Chris_Evans@predictorelect Survation have updated their Modal on Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tae where they placed Lib Dem 3rd now 1st. Next will be Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr.
@EdHcom @carolvorders Agreed most of the predictions are spot on. But this one is ridiculous. The modelling is completely wrong. 100+ years of Liberal/Lib Dems. Strong second last few elections. Taking control of council from Tory/Independents last election
@THE_Chris_Evans@predictorelect Also looks like the a lot of Tory stakeboards have been taken down. Lib Dems stakeboards in high volume and little to no Labour boards in Montgomeryshire. Obviously Glyndwr is a different story. Just don't forget there is a lot of votes In Montgomeryshire.
@THE_Chris_Evans@predictorelect I was thinking this, and in light of last week's news. The traditional switch between Tory/Lib Dem looks more likely in Montgomeryshire. Labour is to much of a switch for right of centre voters. This needs re-modelling after #BetGate
@EdHcom @carolvorders@thetimes With Lib Dems in second and controlling the council. These Tory switches are likely to bolster the already strong base for them. Reform starting from 0 so unlikely to win. Plaid to far behind. Probable outcome will be Lib Dems 1st with Labour and Tories a close 2nd
@EdHcom @carolvorders@thetimes Most certainly the Tories in the Glyndwr part will switch to Labour. However, in the Montgomeryshire part it's a stretch for traditional Tory voters to switch to left of centre Labour. They are more likely to vote for the centre Lib Dems. The more right leaning will vote Reform.
That concludes the Local Election results in Milton Keynes for 2023. Here's the new political make-up of Milton Keynes City Council.
Full results here: https://t.co/ZenZI2qfoo