Tim Lawless

Tim is CoreLogic Asia Pac’s head research nerd, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@simoneyles777 Thankyou Simon! Windsor knot every time 😎

[Eureka Report is now part of Intelligent Investor @eurekareport]

Getting in shape for a busy week w @mariapet ft @_warrenhogan and @DianaMousina on the economy and the RBA, @EvanLucas_INV on Qantas and FMG and @timlawless on house prices.
Binge-Watching RBA, Qantas & Fortescue https://t.co/BDYfxDMfLO

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

I was fortunate enough to speak with the crew at @PodcastFear this morning, about the aspirational 1.2 million new homes target from national cabinet, a pre-spring rise in listings, the 'fixed rate cliff' and regional housing trends.

A digestible 15 min👇
https://t.co/rPFSMKu3zD

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@corelogicau HVI: 2nd month of slowing growth, although Bris & Adel accelerated to a national leading 1.4% rise in values. New listings on the rise, which helped take some some heat out of market, and rents up for the 35th monthly rise in row, but the smallest rise since Dec 21

[Cotality Australia @cotality_au]

❗ Australian property values increased for a 5th consecutive month in July

❗ Values increased 0.7% nationally

❗ Values are -5.3% below the April '22 peak

❗ Perth, Adelaide and Regional SA hit a new cyclical high

https://t.co/QMuRdHoR0G

#houseprices #Property

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

Housing values trending higher pretty much everywhere...

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@thechartist A slightly longer view since the onset of COVID...

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@DaveTaylorNews Part of the confusion comes from the OCR acronym… in Australia that is the Overnight Cash Rate but some think the acronym stands for Official Cash Rate.

https://t.co/sGHRcjxMU1

But in NZ…. OCR actually IS an acronym for Official Cash Rate.

https://t.co/TRf5cpXkjQ.

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

Lending indicators for March showed an absolute boom in home lending, up 4.9% in the month, led by a 12.3% jump in first home buyer lending.

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

Short & sharp: the housing downturn looks to be over after @corelogicau HVI posted 2 months of growth, led by Sydney up 3% in 3 months.

The rise comes after a 9.7% drop in capital city home values, the swiftest decline on record.

Full detail here 👇
https://t.co/L97fkQpv5P

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@DaveTaylorNews Good to see the cost of new dwellings coming down fast (largest weight in the cpi basket) but rents accelerating (second largest weight in the basket).

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@PeteWargent @Harpsism Its rare for costs to actually fall - in almost 30yrs we have only seen the index fall 10 times (half of these occasions was just -0.1% or less). There might be some downwards movement after such a large increase, but unlikely to be 'material'. More here: https://t.co/4z1D7VFwe1

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@mikejanda @itjohnstone @ASX1500 Method docs are here: (click on methodology tab) https://t.co/WndbrKapcv.

[Cotality Australia @cotality_au]

The Housing Chart Pack is out, and findings are in 📊

🔼 Total value of resi real estate rose to $9.3T but remains well below the peak of $10T (Apr ’22)
🔽 Home values logged the largest annual decline on record (-7.9%)

Get more market metrics here 👇
https://t.co/6A5KXpVtwr

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@PeteWargent @murrayashmore The 'median value' is the 50th percentile of the individual property valuation estimates that underpin the hedonic regression. It's not a median price.

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@PeteWargent @insurgoformica The clearance rate isn't calculated when the # of auctions moves through the festive period low - the graph is bridging the gap between observations in the weekly data (see graph below with 4 week trend removed). The weighted average is for the cap city rate, weighted by volume.

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@TheGladiatorHC @corelogicau Over the past 20 years the index has only moved into negative territory twice (Q1 2001 after disruption from GST intro & Q1 2007 after a few years of dwelling approvals winding down) so it will be interesting to see if costs do come down or simply find a new floor.

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

Some good news for inflation: @corelogicau reporting a sharp drop in the rate of growth for resi construction costs through Q4 '22. Housing has the largest weighting within CPI, and new dwelling purchases by owner occupiers is the largest weighting within the housing category.

[Cotality Australia @cotality_au]

CoreLogic’s Cordell Construction Cost Index (CCCI) climbed a record 11.9% over the 2022 calendar year. The quarterly growth rate of 1.9% shows a dramatic easing in the index following Q3's increase of 4.7%. Full details online.

https://t.co/VfQSIihmoe

#housing #construction

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

@RodDoyle5 @corelogicau Once interest rates start to reduce we should see some growth return to housing markets, but timing is highly uncertain... 20yr average annual growth rates across the capitals have ranged from 3.1% in Darwin to 6.2% in Hobart

[Tim Lawless @timlawless]

A diverse outcome in housing markets last year... the full summary from @corelogicau

https://t.co/rzQQV2lgnJ

[Cotality Australia @cotality_au]

Australia's housing markets finished the year weaker, with CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index down -1.1% in December. Values were -5.3% lower over 2022, the first national annual decline since 2018.

https://t.co/hzVeHIax2O

#property #houseprices