Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports)

OG Chicago guy Offering semi-contrarian takes on DFS, fantasy sports, and society. Creator of the Mona Lisa lineup, winner of the Play Action 100k,Week 10,2020.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

Once again, huge shout out to the @RotoGrinders touts for continuing to provide great roster building advice. This is the second bink this year and I’ll be a fan of Nuke for the rest of my life!

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@WAVEBOY21982561 Wow! You’re doing great! If you can compete in BATB, you can compete anywhere! Good luck!

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

This year, I drafted 24 NFBC teams…more than twice the volume than any previous season. This post will thoroughly analyze my 2026 season at the midpoint. I spend a lot of time managing my teams so I feel compelled to put pen to paper about my experience. I hope the few of you who read this find it interesting.

About me:
I am a long time Fantasy Sports enthusiast with baseball being my favorite full season fantasy sport. (I like football and hockey too but mostly DFS rather than season long.) Fantasy baseball is fascinating to me as it requires the combined skills of math, predictive analytics, and game strategy.

I have played NFBC contest since 2018 but to date, I have not been successful in the NFBC overall contests, nor have I turned a profit. I do not consider myself to be an elite player by any means. However, my ego has persuaded me to play more contests in 2026 than in any prior season. I have decided that, similar to DFS, volume matters when trying to win an overall contest.

Breakdown of my 2026 contests:
11 Draft Champions (including CLQ)
5 Online Championship (also CLQ)
2 Main Events, 1 Vegas Live, 1 online
1 Auction Championship, Live
3 Online Auction Championship
2 Bubba and the Bloom contests

League average is one cash out of every six contests. I am currently cashing in one contest, although I have 8 other competitive teams. I have a first place team top 70 overall in an OLAC, which I am completely obsessed with. (My best overall finish was 52nd in an OC, but that team was still 2nd in its league behind 3rd place overall finisher @RotoGut ) Needless to say, its been hard for me to touch the lofty heights of an overall championship…in any format.

My approach:
I am not a math guy or a prospects guy. I mostly try to rely on inefficiencies in ADP to obtain value. I also consider myself a contrarian as I believe the fantasy community in general is too sharp for its own good. If I have a fantasy baseball superpower, it is my ability to read the tea leaves at the organizational level.

My best example of this (talent) in action is 2026 is Seranthony Dominguez. He was signed as the White Sox third highest player, yet he went into draft season below the likes of Ryan Walker, Robert Suarez, and Dennis Santana. News out of training camp was always that he’d close until they flip him for prospects at the trade deadline. And that’s exactly how it played out. No, he hasn’t been good. But 12 saves in half a season is a profit at ADP 160 to 225.

The other best practice I use, IMO, is that I intently listen to guys who have had more success than me…specifically when they opine on concepts that are unique and thoughtful. I lean more towards @GekkoIndustries and @The_Gildz than @JustinMasonFWFB and @ScottJenstad in my level of risk but I try to keep an open mind to everyone and anyone that has had success in these contests.

What I have learned in 2026:
1. I was right about the dudes I was most passionate about most of the time. (Not you, Cal Raliegh) I need to rely on my own intuition more and pay less attention to value vs ADP on the guys I like the most. I found myself missing on guys in FAAB contests because I got them soooo much cheaper in DCs. Not the right mindset.
2. I crossed off too many guys in which I did not have an opinion rather than vary my exposure.
If I’m going to play volume, I need to be more willing to expand my player pool. I completely whiffed on Misiorowski and Jordan Walker even though I didn’t have a strong opinion against either.
3. I don’t think there is a wrong pricing approach to FAAB, but more research is necessary.
There seems to be two schools of thought. Either spend with impunity early or never spend big which allows you more chances to hit on your FAAB picks. My FAAB experience in 2026 has been that some of my teams have hit on a bunch of guys and other teams have missed. The amount I spent on each individual pick didn’t really factor into its success.
🧵

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@gravelandstones 💯I played in a main with Scott last year. He was very unlucky, but he played FAAB as well as anyone I’ve ever played against. Mad respect to Scott.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

2nd half outlook:
Even though I have only one team cashing so far, Im pretty confident about some of my flailing teams moving up. In some cases, it will rely on injured comebacks from Raliegh and Hunter Brown. But mostly, I think there will be more July/August attrition than in previous years. We have already seen significantly less activity in FAAB and summer has just begun.

Thanks for reading and good luck for the rest of the season!

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

Who and what I got wrong in 2026:
Flame throwing young starters:
I fell for the trap of innings limit and mostly stayed away from the true SP studs of 2026. Misiorowski, Burns, and Schlitter. Frankly, not having these guys has hurt badly as the vast majority of my teams have bottom third ks and ratios. Big big conceptual mistake on my part.
Multi-position duds in FAAB leagues:
In DCs, I think it’s still fine strategy to roster the likes of Zach McKinstry and Jared Triolo. But not in FAAB leagues. Looking back, I believe there is literally no reason to draft these duds as its just as easy to find one on the wire for a few bucks.
Zero catcher strategy:
Some years, this has been the correct play, but not in 2026. I guess I thought the many callup catchers would have more offensive impact than they have. But I have now painfully learned that you gotta have at least one good Catcher.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@draftchampagne @marc_winokur Good pod guys…although it left me wanting more xFip.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@Ihartitz @Steven31F I lost my Circa Survivor on that game, too. Grrr

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@grok @ToxicAirsoftGA Does Austria need to tie or win to advance to the round of 32?

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@Marlins @loanDepotpark For all we know, Jonah may not have been a good boy. He could have dry humped the family cat or bitten the mail man. I smell a conspiracy!

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@PitcherList Evidently, DFS players are not a menace to society but prop bettors are?

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

My God! This commercial is fucking excellent! Way to go Sheetz!

[Jared Smith @jaredsmithbets]

The best commercial featuring a pro athlete since the golden era of “This Is Sportscenter”

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@Ihartitz I think the Bears needed cap space and are reasonably happy with the WR room they have.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@RotoGut @GettheSave9th The amount I invested in him resulted in a profit for most of my teams.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@RobSilver You’d have to do it a series at a time. The Wed afternoon games exist to accommodate travel. A random Tuesday afternoon game just wouldn’t work logistically unless the entire series was done by day.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

No you wouldn’t. If you stole a $5 sandwich by pointing a gun at someone, you’d do time.
What I don’t understand is why you use the backdrop of rampant Medicare fraud to point out Trump’s pardons. (And ONLY Trump’s pardons) I would think if you are a younger person, you’d want all fraud against the Federal Government eliminated. Its your only hope to prevent US financial ruin in your lifetime.

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@Dante_lmao @adjunctlounge @nickshirleyy @grok Don’t forget this part.

• 2020: President Donald Trump commuted Esformes’ sentence (he served about 14 months), but the conviction stood and he was not fully pardoned. He still faced financial penalties (restitution and forfeiture)

[Timothe (Lillypeutians Fantasy Sports) @timothe1967]

@Protagontist @nickshirleyy There was no pardon according to Grok.

• 2020: President Donald Trump commuted his sentence (he served about 14 months), but the conviction stood and he was not fully pardoned. He still faced financial penalties (restitution and forfeiture)