It’s actually the reverse, of course. The only way a convicted criminal, found liable for sexual abuse, who incited an armed insurrection could win again is because millions of Americans live in an information bubble and believe things that are manifestly and demonstrably untrue.
The flip side is that Trump ran an awful campaign. He gave a terrible RNC speech, his VP was deeply unpopular, he lost the debate, he had no ground game to speak of, he offended key demographic groups ... and none of it mattered.
Yep, whether Trump wins or loses - and lots on this site, and the NY Times modelling folks say Trump is on course to victory - he should never have been allowed to run for president again, without any accountability for Jan 6th.
If Trump wins, there will be efforts to blame Russian interference or the Harris campaign or Biden, etc. That's all fair. But we need to be clear eyed that a huge swath of America likes what Trump is selling. Transphobia. Mass deportation. That's what he ran on. And here we are.
Mea culpa: I was way too complacent about Trump's political strength/durability. I really believed his appeal would largely be limited to MAGA, particularly after 1/6, his numerous serious crimes, a year of campaigning on overt authoritarian threats, and (especially) the Biden pro-labor/industrial policy agenda. Whether it's the trauma of covid and its aftermath, or something systemic about Dems on economy/immigration/cultural issues, or the info environment's inability to handle the Trump/MAGA disinfo challenge, or some combination of all those things, whatever happens in this election, it's pretty clear that this confidence was badly misplaced. If he wins, as now looks likely, it's gonna get ugly, I fear.
My final predictions: Democrat sweep. They take the White House, House and retain the Senate.
Kamala is going to be 300+ in the electoral college.
Run through the tape and then do a lap. Run up the numbers. Make it count. And because I'm petty, make it hurt Trump and MAGA.
I got a phone call tonight from the President of the United States to express his gratitude for all the work we’ve done in North Carolina.
It’s been the honor of my life to serve our Party. Thank you to the folks who made it all possible. I know we’re ready for tomorrow, NC! 🗳️
Signature match is antiquated and stupid and from an era when people signed physical checks all the time. It's insane that we are using this "technology" in 2024.
Nevada: the margin of victory in Nevada may come down to YOUR ballot.
Here’s how to submit your mail-in ballot properly and find your local polling location.
Three polling locations in major blue areas of Fulton, Cobb, and Gwinnett counties are going to stay open later because of bomb threats originating from Russia.
MAGA clowns were celebrating the disruption until they found out folks will now be able to vote even later. #gapol