Tipstarred

⚽ Football value bets, model-driven · soft-vs-Pinnacle devig
📊 +6.66% ROI · 58.3% strike · 936 bets (26 Jun 26)
📈 Every pick posted before kickoff.

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

Built some data driven, edge detector football betting system. 841 bets in, here's the record on 18th May 2026:

📈 +7.14% ROI
💰 +155.2u profit
🎯 58.4% strike rate
📅 Every month green since Jan '26

(1u = 1% bankroll, Kelly-staked)

How it works 👇

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇲🇽 Liga MX
⚽ Puebla v Guadalajara
🕐 KO Sat 01 Aug · 01:00 UTC
🎯 Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.75
💵 Stake: 2.96u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 256 picks, +20.3u, ROI +2.7%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 Major League Soccer
⚽ New York City v Toronto
🕐 KO Fri 31 Jul · 23:30 UTC
🎯 Over 2.5 @ 1.80
💵 Stake: 2.87u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 256 picks, +20.3u, ROI +2.7%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇷🇴 Superliga
⚽ Otelul v Dinamo Bucureşti
🕐 KO Fri 31 Jul · 18:30 UTC
🎯 Over 2.5 @ 2.30
💵 Stake 2.29u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 256 picks, +20.3u, ROI +2.7%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇸🇪 Superettan
⚽ Oddevold v Norrby
🕐 KO Fri 31 Jul · 17:00 UTC
🎯 Pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.75
💵 Stake: 5.00u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V3 (btts_stats_v3)
📊 Lifetime: 26 picks, -3.5u, ROI -3.2%, CLV +5.0%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

@GunnerPuls Easy, Kanu

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Elliot Anderson at Manchester City, £116m. The fee says goalscorer, the data says engine.

📊 38 of 38 Premier League apps, 3,334 minutes, 59 key passes, 50 dribbles won, 4 goals from 3.3 xG, 7.25 average rating.

City bought availability and control.

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Morgan Rogers arrives at Chelsea, £117m, the most expensive British player ever.

📊 In the Premier League last season: 37 apps, 3,285 minutes, 84 shots, 48 key passes, 42 dribbles won, 10 goals from 7.8 xG, 8 assists.

⚽ 18 goal contributions.

Chelsea bought output.

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇸🇪 Örebro 0-0 Oddevold.
❌ BTTS — lost, -2.93u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇸🇪 Superettan
⚽ Örebro v Oddevold
🕐 KO Mon 27 Jul · 17:00 UTC
🎯 BTTS Yes @ 1.70
💵 Stake 2.93u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V3 (btts_stats_v3)
📊 Lifetime: 25 picks, -0.6u, ROI -0.6%, CLV +4.8%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇸🇪 Superettan
⚽ Örebro v Oddevold
🕐 KO Mon 27 Jul · 17:00 UTC
🎯 BTTS Yes @ 1.70
💵 Stake 2.93u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V3 (btts_stats_v3)
📊 Lifetime: 25 picks, -0.6u, ROI -0.6%, CLV +4.8%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

O2.5 model: +20.30u over 256 picks.
🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga: 30 of those, 11 won, −29.68u.
Every other league: +49.98u.

One league 🇫🇮, 12% of picks, has eaten most of the profit. I'll pause new bets on this league, keep tracking it unstaked, and revisit on a set date, not on feelings.

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇫🇮 Ilves 1-0 Lahti.
❌ O2.5 — lost, -3.01u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga
⚽ Ilves v Lahti
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 12:00 UTC
🎯 Over 2.5 @ 1.75
💵 Stake: 3.01u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 255 picks, +23.3u, ROI +3.1%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇳 Shandong Taishan 1-2 Henan Songshan Longmen.
✅ BTTS — won, +1.66u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇳 Super League
⚽ Shandong Taishan v Henan Songshan Longmen
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 11:35 UTC
🎯 BTTS Yes @ 1.55
💵 Stake: 3.01u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V2 (btts_stats_v2)
📊 Lifetime: 163 picks, +50.4u, ROI +7.4%, CLV +2.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇫🇮 Veikkausliiga
⚽ Ilves v Lahti
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 12:00 UTC
🎯 Over 2.5 @ 1.75
💵 Stake: 3.01u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 255 picks, +23.3u, ROI +3.1%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇳 Super League
⚽ Shandong Taishan v Henan Songshan Longmen
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 11:35 UTC
🎯 BTTS Yes @ 1.55
💵 Stake: 3.01u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V2 (btts_stats_v2)
📊 Lifetime: 163 picks, +50.4u, ROI +7.4%, CLV +2.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 DC United 2-1 Toronto.
✅ O2.5 — won, +2.63u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 Major League Soccer
⚽ DC United v Toronto
🕐 KO Sat 25 Jul · 23:30 UTC
🎯 Over 2.5 @ 1.95
💵 Stake 2.77u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 253 picks, +23.9u, ROI +3.2%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 St. Louis City 1-0 Colorado Rapids.
❌ O2.5 — lost, -3.27u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 Major League Soccer
⚽ St. Louis City v Colorado Rapids
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 00:30 UTC
🎯 Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.65
💵 Stake: 3.27u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 253 picks, +23.9u, ROI +3.2%, CLV +4.4%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇴 Independiente Medellí n 3-2 Deportivo Pasto.
✅ BTTS — won, +5.30u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇴 Liga BetPlay
⚽ Independiente Medellín v Deportivo Pasto
🕐 KO Sat 25 Jul · 21:05 UTC
🎯 Pick: BTTS Yes @ 2.06
💵 Stake: 5.00u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V3 (btts_stats_v3)
📊 Lifetime: 23 picks, -0.9u, ROI -0.9%, CLV +4.8%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇳 Shanghai Port 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
❌ BTTS — lost, -5.00u

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇨🇳 Super League
⚽ Shanghai Port v Shanghai Shenhua
🕐 KO Sat 25 Jul · 11:35 UTC
🎯 Pick: BTTS Yes @ 1.47
💵 Stake: 5.00u

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📐 Strategy: BTTS Stats V3 (btts_stats_v3)
📊 Lifetime: 23 picks, -0.9u, ROI -0.9%, CLV +4.8%

[Tipstarred @tipstarred]

🇺🇸 Major League Soccer
⚽ St. Louis City v Colorado Rapids
🕐 KO Sun 26 Jul · 00:30 UTC
🎯 Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.65
💵 Stake: 3.27u

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📐 Strategy: O25 Stats V1 (o25_stats_v1)
📊 Lifetime: 253 picks, +23.9u, ROI +3.2%, CLV +4.4%