Dorothy

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

Charlie Munger: "Two things Warren and I do. One is that we spend a lot of time thinking. Our schedules are not that crowded, and we’re constantly—we look more like academics than we look like businessmen. Our system has been to sift life for a few opportunities and seize a few of them, and we don’t mind if nothing happens. And Warren is exactly the same way. Warren’s sitting on top of an empire now, but you look at his schedule sometimes and it says, “a haircut. Tuesday, haircut.” That’s what created one of the most successful business records in history: he has a lot of time to think."

https://t.co/ZediyvAGfT

[세이 Yoon, Shin-young @shinyoungyoon]

한국이 시원하니 아마 잊으셨겠지만... 전 세계 및 엘니뇨 모니터링 수역 바다 온도는 미쳐 날뛰는 중입니다. 니뇨3.4의 최근 30년 평균과의 편차는, 비록 예비자료(NOAA OISST - Climate Reanalyzer 재집계) 기준이지만, 17일 기준 3.47도까지 올라갔고요(올해 전 최고 기록은 3.02도였어요),

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Wisdom @TalebWisdom]

"The twentieth century was the bankruptcy of the social utopia; the twenty-first will be that of the technological one." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[Youngbin Yang @yang_youngbin]

OpenAI와 Anthropic은 왜 막대한 적자를 내고 있을까요? 파이낸셜타임스에 실린 기고문에 따르면, 단 한 가지만 바꾸면 이익률 70%의 초고수익 기업이 될 수 있다고 합니다.

팩트체크 해봅니다.

[WaTo @watoulsky]

Charlie Munger: “Puedes merecértelo mucho, ser muy inteligente y muy disciplinado, pero también influye el factor suerte.”

“Quienes consiguen resultados extraordinarios son gente con disciplina, inteligencia y buenos valores, y además con muchísima suerte. ¿Por qué iba el mundo a funcionar de otra manera?”

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

China is on track to domestically produce most key semiconductor manufacturing equipment for mature nodes by 2030, led by NAURA, AMEC, and SiCarrier, according to TrendForce.

Except lithography where Chinese domestic market share is projected to only reach 10-15%.

[Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ]

The Economist: China’s frugal citizens are getting more so. Lending to households has been shrinking for most of the year. Short-term loans to consumers fell by 8.3% in September compared with the year before, the steepest drop on record.
https://t.co/gdujn9wGIs

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger says your life will be better if...

"You don't have a lot of envy. You don't have a lot of resentment. You don't overspend your income. You stay cheerful in spite of your troubles. You deal with reliable people. You do what you're supposed to do."

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Yicai: "Last year, China’s basic research spending ranked second worldwide after the United States and was about 2.3 times that of third-ranked Japan and 2.8 times that of fourth-ranked South Korea, the report also showed."
https://t.co/1xDWMi07av

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Xinhua: "China has completed this year's issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds, bringing the total to 1.3 trillion yuan. Of the total, 800 billion yuan was allocated to projects for implementing major national strategies and building security capacity in key areas, 250 billion yuan was used to support consumer goods trade-in programs, 200 billion yuan to support large-scale equipment upgrades, and 50 billion yuan was earmarked for the establishment of a special fiscal-financial coordination fund to boost domestic demand."

77% of this financing in 2026 was used to support investment and the supply side of the economy, and 23% to support domestic consumption.
https://t.co/fzNvj8cVxx

[케이채 (K. CHAE) @kchae]

그게 ‘현실’인 것을 나이들수록 더 느끼게 되긴 하는데 제대로 된 어른일수록 그런 현실임에도 진보헤야한다는, 더 나은 사회로 나아가야한다는 희망을 품고 그 역할을 자신이 해야한다는 사명감을 놓지 말아야 한다는 생각을 하는 요즘입니다..

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Wisdom @TalebWisdom]

"A life saved is a statistic; a person hurt is an anecdote. Statistics are invisible; anecdotes are salient." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Black Swan

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

To think China will step back from its export-led growth model is naive. It won't. In fact, China is doing the opposite. It's doubling down. China's exports to every possible EM imaginable are going through the roof. A new age of Chinese mercantilism...
https://t.co/DJ7J5H7C3Q

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

This is what's going on with China's exports. They're going vertical to everywhere outside the US. China is furiously reorienting its export machine to everywhere other than the US, presumably to reduce its exposure to any future trade war with the US...
https://t.co/QXNbp6m5Wl

[Kevin Carpenter @kejca]

Charlie Munger: "I don't know anybody who is wise who doesn't read a lot. On the other hand, that alone won't do it. You have to have a temperament which grabs the correct ideas and does something with those ideas."

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Wisdom @TalebWisdom]

"The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in Skin in the Game

[Michael A. Arouet @MichaelAArouet]

If you think a 25% drop in real estate prices is a lot, consider the number of vacant apartments in China. About 30 million have been fully or partially built but never sold. 50–60 million have been bought but remain empty, as owners counted on price appreciation that never came. The bursting of China’s epic real estate bubble makes the 2007-2008 US subprime crisis look like a walk in the park.

We already see the impact on Chinese consumers who lost their life savings. The real question is the impact on the banking system sitting on worthless loans, not only for residential real estate but also for vacant illuminated skyscrapers and other idle infrastructure. How should the banks be able to keep lending to keep the economy going, if their balance sheets are under such tremendous pressure?

[Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis]

Bloomberg: “Far from dumping its securities, they say, Chinese officials have instead just been moving them to non-US custodian banks in other countries, meaning they wouldn’t be registered to China in the Treasury data.”

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as it’s been much-discussed on this forum, but it will nonetheless surprise many.
https://t.co/8HZ99JBh3t

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Last night brought another monster trade surplus for China in September. To think that China will step back from its export-led growth model is hopelessly naive. It won't. The rest of China's economy is deeply broken. This is the only growth it has...
https://t.co/DJ7J5H89To

[Investment Wisdom @InvestingCanons]

“Extreme predictions are rarely right, but they’re the ones that make you big money.”

— Howard Marks